The NFL regular season is coming to an end. A few years ago, the NFL made the last week of the regular season all division games to make things as interesting as possible. Well, we got exactly that this year. While there are 16 games this weekend, only three have zero playoff implications.
The two NFC South division matchups (Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints) have zero playoff impact. The Buccaneers have won the division and are locked into the No. 4 seed. Meanwhile, the other three teams have been eliminated from the playoffs.
In the AFC, the only game without any playoff impact is the contest between the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts. While both teams won't make the playoffs, plenty is on the line in this matchup. If the Texans lose, they will secure the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. However, if Houston wins and the Chicago Bears lose, the Texans will slide to the No. 2 pick in the draft, while the Colts could pick as high as third overall. With the future of Bryce Young hanging in the balance, both teams have every reason possible to try and lose this game.
Meanwhile, Week 17's matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals was suspended after safety Damar Hamlin collapsed on the field. The NFL has decided to call the game a no-contest and not count it, meaning both teams will only play 16 games this season. With that decision, the playoff picture in the AFC is dramatically different now than it was on Monday morning.
With 13 meaningful games this weekend, what impact does that have on the spread, and how should gamblers bet on it? Let's dive into it.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders (+9)
The Chiefs can secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win over the Raiders. Kansas City has won four games in a row, with a 7.3 average margin of victory. However, they faced the Texans and Denver Broncos twice during that span, winning all three games by six points or fewer. While the Raiders can't make the playoffs, they would love nothing more than to play spoilers for their divisional rivals. In the matchup between these two teams earlier this season, the Chiefs won 30-29 in Kansas City.
My Pick: LV +9 (-110)
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5)
This matchup will determine the AFC South division winner and the No. 4 seed in the conference. The Titans have lost six in a row, including 36-22 to the Jaguars in Week 14. Meanwhile, Jacksonville has won six of the past eight games. If Tennessee loses this game, they are out of the playoff mix. Meanwhile, Jacksonville can still make the playoffs as a wild card team despite losing to the Titans. However, the New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers would all have to lose on Sunday for the Jaguars to sneak their way into the postseason with an 8-9 record.
My Pick: JAC -6.5 (-105)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-7)
Cincinnati has locked up the AFC North division title after last week's matchup against Buffalo was declared a no-contest. Unfortunately, that means they can no longer get the No. 1 seed. Yet, they still have a chance to earn the No. 2 seed. The Bengals would need to win this game and see the Patriots defeat the Bills. Meanwhile, the Ravens are unlikely to win this game as Lamar Jackson is trending towards not playing again this week. With their playoff spot locked up and no chance at winning the division, Baltimore has no reason to put the star quarterback on the field.
My Pick: CIN -7 (-110)
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
A month ago, the Steelers appeared on their way to a losing record and potentially a top-10 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. However, they've won three in a row and five of their past six contests. With a win over the Browns and losses by the Patriots and Dolphins, the Steelers will make the playoffs for the third-straight year. Meanwhile, the Browns were eliminated from the postseason in Week 16 after losing to the Saints. This game should be close, but are you going to bet against Mike Tomlin with the playoffs on the line?
My Pick: PIT -2.5 (-110)