With playoff scenarios swirling and motivation in question across the NFL in Week 18, we take a look at the best way to approach betting the final week of the 2023-24 NFL season based on the best NFL odds and results from similar spots across the last decade.
Entering the final game of the 2022-23 NFL season, the Green Bay Packers faced a simple yet daunting refrain ahead of their biggest moment of the season: win and you're in.
The Packers had scored four straight wins entering Week 18 but needed one more to secure their spot in the NFL postseason. Standing in their way were the Detroit Lions, who had been relegated to a spoiler role on Sunday Night Football after their playoff hopes were dashed an hour earlier with a win by the Seattle Seahawks.
It was a classic Week 18 matchup between the “motivated” team and the one with “nothing to play for” – a common label this time of year for teams whose postseason plans have already been decided. By the time the game kicked off, the Packers had been bet to 4-point favorites, even with both teams owning identical 8-8 records in a matchup the Lions had won two months earlier.
Lo and behold, Green Bay lost the game outright, joining the graveyard of teams who have met their untimely end in a do-or-die spot against an opponent with nothing on the line. And if history is any indication, we could see another such team laid to rest in Week 18.
To better understand how to bet on motivation in the final week of the 2023-24 NFL season and to help your NFL predictions for Week 18, let's take a look at the odds and results for previous teams in similar spots via our best NFL betting sites.
Beware the NFL Week 18 trap game
It's so tempting, isn't it? One team just needs a win to punch its ticket to th e postseason, while the other has already made its travel plans through February. In reality, it doesn't work that way, and the results have often been jarring for the side with everything to lose.
Since 2011, 40 teams have entered the final week of the regular season needing a win to clinch a playoff spot (or to avoid needing help) against a team without a playoff berth, division title, or top seed at stake. Those teams have gone just 17-22-1 ATS (43.6%), including a 4-8 ATS record over the last three seasons with three outright losses in that stretch.
Those weren't just run-of-the-mill defeats, either; they were downright embarrassing. The Indianapolis Colts (9-7) needed a win over the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14) in 2021 to clinch a playoff spot, but they lost outright as 14-point favorites. A year earlier, the Miami Dolphins (10-5) were favored by 3.5 points over the Buffalo Bills (12-3) with a wild-card berth on the line; the y lost by 30 points.
And, of course, the 2022 Packers became the latest team to trip up in such a situation, which has happened at least once in nine of the last 12 seasons – including four straight – with a combined 13 outright losses among those 40 teams:
| Season | Matchup | Result |
| 2022 | Packers (-4) vs. Lions | L, 16-20 |
| 2021 | Colts (-14) at Jaguars | L, 11-26 |
| 2020 | Dolphins (-3.5) at Bills | L, 26-56 |
| 2019 | Steelers (-2) at Ravens | L, 10-28 |
| 2019 | Raiders (+5.5) at Broncos | L, 15-16 |
| 2017 | Seahawks (-8) vs. Cardinals | L, 24-26 |
| 2017 | Ravens (-8) vs. Bengals | L, 27-31 |
| 2016 | Commanders (-9) vs. Giants | L, 10-19 |
| 2015 | Jets (-2.5) at Bills | L, 17-22 |
| 2013 | Dolphins (-7.5) vs. Jets | L, 7-20 |
| 2011 | Raiders (-2.5) vs. Chargers | L, 26-38 |
| 2011 | Broncos (-1) vs. Chiefs | L, 3-7 |
| 2011 | Jets (+1.5) at Dolphins | L, 17-19 |
That's a whopping 32.5% of teams that have lost in that spot since 2011 – even higher than the overall win percentage (31.6%) for underdogs across the first 17 weeks of the 2023 NFL season.
This phenomenon doesn't just exist for teams on the postseason bubble, either. Those that had already secured a playoff berth but needed a win to clinch the division went 8-12 ATS in that stretch against teams with virtually nothing at stake, losing six of those 20 games outright (30%) despite being favored by 8.2 points on average.
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Avoid the extremes in NFL Week 18
While teams have generally struggled to meet expectations when the playoffs are within reach, not every spot is created equally. Here's a look at those 40 teams split up by the closing line, with a look at their record and average scoring margin:
| Favored by… | ATS | SU | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 or more | 0-4 | 3-1 | +1.3 |
| 10 to 13.5 | 5-1 | 6-0 | +21.7 |
| 7 to 9.5 | 2-6 | 4-4 | +1.3 |
| 3.5 to 6.5 | 7-4 | 9-2 | +8.7 |
| 0 to 3 | 2-6-1 | 5-4 | -1.7 |
| Underdogs | 1-1 | 0-2 | +2 |
Right away, you can see the hot spots on either end of the chart: big favorites (-14 or more) and small favorites (-3 or less) have combined for a ghastly 2-10-1 ATS record over the last dozen years, and a closer look only underscores that disappointment.
Those 2021 Colts are the only double-digit favorites to completely blow their shot at the playoffs, but two of the other three teams – the 2013 San Diego Chargers and 2018 Pittsburgh Steelers – won by a mere three points. On the other side, the nine favorites dealing at -3 or shorter were actually outscored by 18 points in total, even with a playoff spot on the table and the betting market behind them.
The biggest winners among those splits are favorites of 10 to 13.5 points, who have won all six games by a combined 130 points. Even those results contain a cautionary tale: the Cleveland Browns (-10.5) needed a win over the Steelers& #39; backups to set up a wild-card rematch in 2020, and they narrowly survived Mason Rudolph's failed 2-point conversion with 1:23 left in a 24-22 win.
What about teams seeking a first-round bye and/or home-field advantage? They've fared a little better against the number (26-23-1 ATS), but that group is also responsible for one of the biggest upsets in NFL history – when the New England Patriots (12-3) lost to the rival Dolphins (4-11) as 17.5-point favorites to fumble a first-round bye in 2019 and ultimately spell the end of Tom Brady's time in New England.
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Which teams are motivated in NFL Week 18?
You may be wondering: how is any of this possible? How can teams fighting for their playoff lives win at a nearly identical rate to favorites in any other week of the season, especially against teams with seemingly nothing to play for?
For one, it's important to recognize the idea of “motivation” as a mostly constructed media narrative that only rears its head near the end of the regular season. Sure, one team might have higher stakes with a win, but the players themselves are still battling for paychecks, pride, and a potential spot on another team – especially those filling in for regular starters in Week 18.
Also, many of these teams have faced the same do-or-die stakes for weeks, including some of those vying for a playoff spot or division title this week. Here's a look at the eight teams with something to play for in Week 18 against a team with essentially nothing on the line:
| Matchup | Stakes | Best odds (motivated) | Best odds (unmotivated) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers at Ravens | Playoffs | Steelers -3 (-112) via DraftKings | Ravens +3.5 (-110) via BetMGM |
| Buccaneers at Panthers | Playoffs + division | Buccaneers -4.5 (-110) via bet365 | Panthers +4.5 (-105) via FanDuel |
| Jaguars at Titans | Playoffs + division | Jaguars -3.5 (-108) via DraftKings | Titans +3.5 (-112) via DraftKings |
| Packers vs. Bears | Playoffs | Packers -3 (-105) via Caesars | Bears +3 (-110) via bet365 |
| Vikings at Lions | Playoffs | Vikings +3.5 (-110) via BetMGM | Lions -3 (-115) via FanDuel |
| Cowboys at Commanders | Division | Cowboys -13 (-110) via bet365 | Commanders +13.5 (-118) via FanDuel |
| Eagles at Giants | Division | Eagles -4.5 (-115) via BetMGM | Giants +5.5 (-108) via DraftKings |
| Se ahawks at Cardinals | Playoffs | Seahawks -3 (+100) via Caesars | Cardinals +3 (-115) via BetMGM |
Eight of the 16 road teams this weekend are favorites, and six of them are fighting for a playoff berth or division title against a team without such motivation. It doesn't take much investigative work to realize just how skewed some of these lines are as a result.
Take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, for example, who could have clinched the NFC South last week but instead lost by 10 points at home to the New Orleans Saints. Now they're dealing as road favorites for the first time all season against a Carolina Panthers team they narrowly beat by three points in Week 13.
Similarly, the Jaguars haven't been favored by this many points on the road since Week 1, and they could be without starting QB Trevor Lawrence after he missed last week due to a shoulder injury. The Dallas Cowboys are laying their biggest road number of the season, too, even after losing each of their last two road games with similar stakes.
That isn't to say those lines are necessarily wrong with full context, but it's important not to overstate a potential playoff berth or division title when betting against NFL players and coaches with families to feed and careers to sustain. As we've seen over the years, “motivation” isn't everything.
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