The final week of the 2023-24 NFL regular season means one last chance for top players to cash in on their contract incentives and bonuses, and we're taking a look at the best NFL player props to bet accordingly based on the best NFL odds.
By and large, the final week of the NFL season is often when league-wide motivation is at an all-time low. For some players, though, the promise of a bigger paycheck is the ultimate motivating factor.
Nearly every contract incentive in the NFL is based on statistical production in the regular season, which means players have one final chance in Week 18 to pad their stats and cash in on bonuses ranging anywhere from $100,000 to more than $1 million.
That also spells potential value in the NFL player props market for Week 18 with players having one final chance to reach those specific milestones in otherwise largely meaningless matchups.
All of this comes with a few caveats. Just because a player has extra incentives (literally) doesn't mean he'll perform accordingly, and not every player on this list will even play a full 60 minutes this weekend. Also, the player props market is unsurprisingly barren in Week 18 given so much uncertainty around the league, so many players with incentives at stake won't have props to bet in the final week, at least not until the day of the game.
That said, we've seen some notable examples of players shooting for contract bonuses in the final week of the regular season – remember Rob Gronkowski's million-dollar catch in the 2021 season finale? – and there are plenty of possible incentives still within reach this weekend.
Along with our deep dive into NFL Week 18 motivation for teams in the playoff hunt, here's a look at some notable players with contract incentives on the line, and the be st way to bet them via our best NFL betting sites (odds via bet365 unless otherwise stated).
(Note: all contract data is reported and not public information, so discrepancies may exist with exact monetary figures. This is not an exhaustive list.)
Week 18 QB contract incentives
Nobody has more at stake this weekend than Mayfield, who can earn a few miillion bucks just for maintaining his usual pace against his former team in the final week of the 2023 NFL regular season.
To start, Mayfield would earn $1 million each for playing more than 85% of his team's snaps (he's at 99.7% through Week 17) and for leading the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the playoffs, which would happen with a win over the Carolina Panthers. He'd also earn five separate $300K bonuses (up to $1.5M total) for ranking in the top 10 in the NFL or top five in the NFC in five key passing metrics.
Mayfield enters Week 18 in the top 10 in passing yards (3,907), touchdowns (28), yards per attempt (7.3), and passer rating (95.9), but he needs an efficient day to boost his completion rate (64.4%). So what's the best way to bet this?
I'd expect a volume-heavy day from Mayfield, as usual, but don't get carried away in this matchup with a surprisingly adept Carolina pass defense that held him in check in Week 13 (202 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT). Remember, the Bucs still need a win to make the playoffs, which will be Mayfield's ultimate goal.
| Baker Mayfield bets to consider | Best odds |
|---|---|
| Buccaneers ML | -225 via BetMGM |
This one is pretty straightforward: if the Seattle Seahawks make the playoffs, Smith earns an extra $2 million in 2023.
The best way to get there is to beat the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday and hope the Green Bay Packers lose to the Chicago Bears. Those games occur simultaneously, so Smith will be especially motivated to take care of business against a division rival.
| Geno Smith bets to consider | Best odds |
|---|---|
| Seahawks ML | -142 via FanDuel |
Darnold draws his first start of the season this week as the San Francisco 49ers rest their typical starters after locking up the NFC's No. 1 seed. That could spell a big payday for their backup QB.
As part of the 1-year deal he signed this summer, Darnold earns an extra $300K every time he plays at least 25% of his team's snaps in a San Francisco win. That feels likely this week with oddsmakers pricing the 49ers as home favorites over the Los Angeles Rams, who are also resting their starters on Sunday.
| Sam Darnold bets to consider | Best odds |
|---|---|
| 49ers ML | -198 via DraftKings |
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Week 18 RB contract incentives
Singletary's incentives are all over the place ahead of Week 18. Some outlets are reporting that he needs 165 rushing yards to cash on a $125K bonus for 1,000 rushing yards on the season. Others say he needs just 74 total yards to cash on a $250K incentive for reaching 1,100 yards from scrimmage.
Either way, the Houston Texans' top rusher faces a horrid Indianapolis Colts defense allowing 151 scrimmage yards per game to opposing backs. Singletary combined for just 15 yards as a secondary option against Indianapolis back in Week 2, but I'd be shocked if he doesn't make a run for his money on Saturday night.
| Devin Singletary player props | Best odds |
|---|---|
| Over 62.5 rushing yards | -110 via bet365 |
| Over 80.5 scrimmage yards | -115 via BetMGM |
| 75+ scrimmage yards | -145 via bet365 |
| 150+ rushing yards | +1700 via bet365 |
For more on this matchup, see our Texans vs. Colts prediction and Texans-Colts NFL player props.
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Week 18 WR contract incentives
When Hopkins signed with the Tennessee Titans this summer, he said he wanted to play for a contender. That ship has sailed, but the 11-year veteran could soften the blow with a big game in Week 18.
Entering Sunday's season finale, Hopkins leads the Titans receiving corps in catches (68), receiving yards (1,011), and touchdowns (6). Those numbers have helped him cash in on $1.5 million worth of incentives alrea dy, and he needs just seven catches, 39 yards, and two TDs to make good on three additional $250K bonuses.
As fate would have it, Hopkins faces off this week against a brutal Jacksonville Jaguars secondary that ranks among the league's worst in all three areas – especially touchdowns, having surrendered the fifth-most scores (17) to the position through 17 weeks.
There aren't any receptions props available for Hopkins as of Friday evening, but his yardage and touchdown markets are robust. With Tennessee already eliminated from playoff contention, I could see QB Ryan Tannehill peppering his teammate on Sunday to run up the bill for his soon-to-be former team.
| DeAndre Hopkins player props | Best odds |
|---|---|
| Over 61.5 receiving yards | -110 via bet365 |
| 40+ receiving yards | -450 via DraftKings |
| Hopkins anytime TD scorer | +190 via ESPN BET |
| Hopkins to score two TDs | +1300 via BetMGM |
It's been widely reported that Slayton needs just one catch to secure a $2.5 miillion bonus. That doesn't appear to be accurate under further scrutiny – but he could help his bottom line with a solid showing on Sunday.
Slayton is on pace to lead the New York Giants in receiving yards for the fourth time in five years. He needs just 42 yards to finish with 750 on the season and cash a $100K bonus. He can earn another $100K if he records at least five catches, which he's yet to do in a game this season.
Slayton finished with four catches in two of the last three weeks, and he's scored a touchdown in two straight games. Slayton would trigger another incentive with three more scores on Sunday – with 120/1 odds via BetRivers to do just that – though that seems like a big ask for a player who topped out at three total touchdowns in each of the last four seasons.
| Darius Slayton player props | Best odds |
|---|---|
| Over 40.5 receiving yards | -112 via BetRivers |
| Slayton anytime TD scorer | +350 via BetMGM |
| Slayton to score two TDs | +2400 via BetRivers |
| Slayton to score three TDs | +12000 via BetRivers |
Week 18 TE contract incentives
Much like with Singletary, the reporting around Schultz's incentives is a little murky. But he seemingly has multiple pathways to a big windfall on Saturday night.
Schultz enters this week with 54 catches for 593 receiving yards on the year. If he finishes with 58 catches, he'll earn $250K; 60 catches would net $500K; and 700 receiving yards would bring home an extra $250K bonus.
The last one is the most unlikely, though Schultz recorded 10 catches for 130 yards in Week 9. He finished with four or more catches in seven of 14 games and hauled in six receptions in three contests, including an eight-catch performance two weeks ago against the Cleveland Browns. Tread carefully with this one.
| Dalton Schultz player props | Best odds |
|---|---|
| Over 4.5 receptions | +106 via Caesars |
| 4+ receptions | -215 via FanDuel |
| 6+ receptions | +195 via bet365 |
| 100+ receiving yards | +1100 via bet365 |
Trautman left some money on the table this summer when he forced a trade from the New Orleans Saints to the Denver Broncos and reworked his contract to lower his guaranteed salary. He has a chance to make some of that back in Sunday's season finale.
The mission is simple: score a touchdown and pocket an additional $100K in the 2023 season. The Broncos tight end has scored only three times this season, but two of them have come since Week 12, and he was targeted once in the red zone last week in QB Jarrett Stidham's first start. This one feels like a long shot, but his odds pay out accordingly.
| Adam Trautman player props | Best odds |
|---|---|
| Trautman anytime TD scorer | +700 via Caesars |
| Trautman first TD scorer | +2000 via BetMGM |
| Trautman last TD scorer | +1400 via FanDuel |
| Trautman to score two TDs | +5500 via FanDuel |
Week 18 defense contract incentives
Both Campbell and his teammate Bud Dupree are on the verge of securing some extra cash this weekend if they can hit their lofty sack totals. As of now, our best sports betting sites are only offering props on Campbell, but keep an eye on Dupree, too.
As for Campbell, the 16-year veteran currently has 5.5 sacks for the second straight season, which helped him earn a $500K bonus for reaching five sacks. If he reaches eight sacks, he'll tack on an additional $500K, and he'd pocket another $500K for playing at least 60% of his team's snaps, which he's narrowly above entering Sunday.
| Calais Campbell player props | Best odds |
|---|---|
| Over 0.25 sacks | +105 via DraftKings |
| Over 3.5 tackles + assists | -103 via BetRivers |
Much like Campbell, Floyd has already cashed on his most realistic prop ahead of Sunday, scoring an extra $1 million for finishing with 10 sacks on the season. Why stop there, though, with even more money on the line during Sunday Night Football?
The Bills edge rusher has already set a new career-high with 10.5 sacks in 2023, and he could bring his total incentives earned up to $2 million with another 1.5 sacks in Week 18. That may seem unlikely – and it is – but Floyd has recorded 1.5 sacks or more in four games this season and faces a Miami Dolphins offensive line with injury concerns ahead of Sunday's season finale.
| Leonard Floyd player props | Best odds |
|---|---|
| Over 0.25 sacks | +130 via DraftKings |
| 1+ sacks | +140 via bet365 |
For more on this matchup, see our Bills vs. Dolphins prediction and Bills-Dolphins NFL player props for SNF.
Check out our best NFL betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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