NFL Week 18 Best Bets from the T Shoe Index
It’s hard to believe the regular season is coming to a close already, but here we are. Several teams have already clinched playoff spots and divisional titles, some teams have been eliminated from contention, leaving us with a handful of meaningful games this week to really try to handicap and find value without having to dive through press conference clips to figure out who’s playing and not playing and who is motivated to be there (much like CFB bowl season).
Despite the slew of dumpster fire games that I want no part of this week – looking at you, Patriots vs Jets – there are a couple games with high stakes that TSI indicates we have an edge on, so let’s get to the last best bets of the regular season:
NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Matchups | Week 18 Hub | Expert NFL Picks
Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans (-1), O/U 47.5
According to NFL.com, the winner of this game has a >99% chance to make the playoffs, so there’s no question of motivation here on either side. Both teams should be fired up to play for a chance to extend their seasons in which they’ve already overachieved by most preseason expectations. TSI projects Indianapolis by 2 points, which is closer to the opening line of Indy -1.5 than it is to the current line of Houston -1. The market seemingly loves Houston, but I’m going to ride with the numbers on this one and take the Colts plus the points. The Colts have the #9 offensive rating, going up against the Texans’ #19 defense; conversely, the Texans’ #14 offense face the #30-rated defense in the TSI. Houston is the higher rated team, slightly, but the home crowd should be rocking, which should be just enough to get the Colts over the top against a young Texans team playing a high stakes game on the road.