NFL Week 13 best bets
Welcome to Week 13 of the 2022 NFL season.
Throughout the season, our VSiN experts will combine to give their best bets on every game. Check back for more picks as we get closer to kickoff.
Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Friday night. Go to VSiN.com for Betting Splits for each game and live odds across the NFL market.
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 44.5)
Dave Tuley: The Vikings (9-2) continue to roll on in their dream season, but this game means a lot more to the playoff-hopeful Jets (7-4) as the Vikes have opened up a five-game lead in the NFC North on the second-place Lions (yes, you read that right).
The Jets have had a roller-coaster of a season as their No. 5 defense helped them win games in spite of starting QB Zach Wilson. Coach Robert Saleh made the move to Mike White (22-for-28, 315 passing yards, 3 TDs) in Week 12, and it paid off in a 31-10 rout of the Bears. It shouldn’t necessarily get harder for White against a Minnesota defense that is No. 31 in yards allowed per game.
Jets backers were able to grab +3.5 on Sunday. Early money dropped the line to +3 everywhere, and some have gone to Jets +3 -115; however, there’s still hope that the line movement might reverse as 72% of the bets at DraftKings sportsbooks have been on the Vikings -3 as well as 72% of the money (current figures can be found on the VSiN Betting Splits page https://www.vsin.com/betting-resources/daily-betting-insights-for-mlb-nba-nhl/).
Pick: Jets +3
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-8.5, 38)
Dave Tuley: I can already hear the moans from readers: “You’re betting on the Broncos?” Granted, the Broncos have been a dumpster fire on offense this season, ranking No. 25 in yards per game despite the off-season acquisition of Russell Wilson, but they still have the No. 5 defense that has kept them in several games.
But when it comes down to it, this is more of a bet against the Ravens as they’ve led by 9 points or more in every game so far this season; however, they blew their fourth fourth-quarter lead of the season in Sunday’s 28-27 loss to the Jaguars and are just 5-6 ATS as they tend to let teams stick around.
Besides, if looking for a common opponent, the Broncos beat the Jaguars 21-17 in Week 8, so we see no reason they can’t stay within a TD of the Ravens.
Pick: Broncos +8.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (-1, 42)
Dave Tuley: We’ve actually seen a change of favorites in this game as the Falcons were -1.5 on the advance line last week at the Westgate SuperBook and -1 when it reopened its Week 13 lines on Sunday afternoon. However, after the Steelers beat the Colts 24-17 on Monday Night Football, this has flipped to the Steelers -1, and I’ll gladly take the Falcons as a home dog (albeit the smallest one you can be).
Steelers (4-7) Head Coach Mike Tomlin is trying to avoid his first losing season while the Falcons (5-7) have overachieved all season as they only trail the Buccaneers by half a game in the NFC South and are 7-5 ATS. The Steelers are No. 27 in yards per game while the Falcons are No. 28. But the Falcons have been far more efficient averaging 22.7 points per game compared to just 17.6 for the Steelers with RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson a threat to break off a huge run at any time (5.2 yards per carry) and with Marcus Mariota spreading the ball around to his receivers (or running himself).
Pick: Falcons +1
Adam Burke: Kenny Pickett is going through some growing pains in his first season as an NFL quarterback, but the task is a lot easier when the running game is putting up numbers. The Steelers have rushed for at least 100 yards in each of the last three games, including 172 yards against the Colts on Monday night. Pittsburgh is up to sixth in Rush EPA and should be able to keep that momentum going against a porous Falcons defense.
Najee Harris is questionable, but he avoided a major injury last week. Even if he can’t go, Benny Snell had 62 yards on 12 carries in relief last week, and Jaylen Warren has rushed for five yards per carry on his 38 attempts. Pickett has also contributed a bit with 35 rushes for 195 yards. There are options for the Steelers, and Pickett should also find more success through the air against a Falcons defense that ranks 28th in Dropback EPA against and 29th in Dropback Success Rate.
Pittsburgh’s advanced rush defense metrics look decent, but this is a team that has allowed at least 110 yards on the ground in seven of 11 games. They also haven’t faced many potent rushing attacks, but the Falcons have been very solid and rank fifth in Rush EPA. The Browns rank third in Rush EPA and ran for 171 yards against Pittsburgh back in Week 3.
Quietly, the Falcons' pass attack has graded around league average for the season. With the game indoors away from the bad weather across most of the country, there should be points in the forecast at the Georgia Dome. Not surprisingly, Atlanta has managed 0.38 more yards per play at home and has only allowed seven sacks in six games.
Pick: OVER 42
Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles (-5, 44.5)
Dave Tuley: The Eagles continue to roll along with the NFL’s best record at 10-1, but after starting 3-1 ATS, they’ve been middle of the road at 3-3 ATS their last six games–and that includes a cover by half a point after closing as 6.5-point home favorites in a 40-33 win versus the Packers on Sunday night.
They’ve failed to cover in wins over the Lions, Cardinals, Texans, and Colts in addition to their upset loss to the Commanders in Week 10, so I have no problem fading them against the Titans, who continue to get disrespected in the betting market despite overcoming an 0-2 start to stand at 7-4 SU and an even more impressive 8-3 ATS. And that includes losing 20-16 to the Bengals this past Sunday.
Derrick Henry continues to set the tone as he’s second in the NFL with 1,048 rushing yards to make things easier for Ryan Tannehill’s play-action passes. I also trust Tennessee Head Coach Mike Vrabel to have a scheme to contain Philly QB Jalen Hurts and keep the Titans in a one-score game if not pull the outright upset.
Pick: Titans +5
Jacksonville Jaguars (-1, 51.5) at Detroit Lions
Adam Burke: This one was a winner for me against the Bills last week in our BetsGiving contest, and I’ll go right back to the well again. Jared Goff will be playing indoors at Ford Field, and his cold-weather splits are well-documented. At home this season, the Lions have 15 passing touchdowns. On the road, they have two. Detroit has played one more game at home than on the road, but this is the second-ranked red-zone offense by touchdown percentage, and Goff has had at least two passing touchdowns in five of the six home games. In the game, he didn’t. He threw for 321 yards, so the chances were there.
Jacksonville has a below-average pass defense by EPA and Success Rate while having a really strong run defense, so the Lions should look to the pass as their best means of scoring and creating some explosive plays.
Pick: Jared Goff OVER 1.5 Passing TDs (+100)
Washington Commanders (-2.5, 40.5) at New York Giants
Cleveland Browns (-7, 47) at Houston Texans
Adam Burke: Nobody knows exactly how Deshaun Watson will look in his NFL return, but we have a pretty good idea of how the Texans will look. The Browns may not hit 7.5 to be more than a touchdown favorite on the road for the first time since 1995, but this is still pretty rare air for a Cleveland team that could barely win games not that long ago. Even if Watson looks merely pedestrian here, they are far and away the better team.
This is actually a top-10 offense by EPA/play and a top-five offense in Rush EPA and Rush Success Rate. The Texans are the worst offense in the NFL by EPA/play and are not a passing threat at all, allowing a suspect Cleveland defense to flood the box to stop Dameon Pierce and the running game.
Houston pairs that atrocious offense with a below-average defense against both the pass and the run. A couple of turnovers would help Cleveland’s cause here, as the Browns have only forced eight takeaways this season, but they should still be able to wear Houston down enough to come away with a win and cover, despite the big spread.
Pick: Browns -7
Green Bay Packers (-4.5, 43.5) at Chicago Bears