Sometimes, Vegas is just that good. We saw an astounding number of games come down to the end on both the number and the total, which meant that when you bet was almost as important as what you bet. The Tampa Bay versus San Francisco game serves as a wonderful example. The game closed at SF -13.5, with a total of 41.5. The 49ers opened at -11 and sat at -12.5 as late as Saturday. Money came in Sunday morning and throughout the early window to push this out to the closing line of 13.5. With the game landing on 13, the early San Francisco money cashed, and the kickoff Tampa Bay money got home. There was a similar situation in Los Angeles, with Seattle opening up as a favorite. With the Stafford news, the line flipped to as much as Rams -2. Los Angeles won by 1, and again, there were winning tickets on both teams.
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Now that we are three months into the season, the market will be very dialed in. You will have some slight overreactions, but there is enough data now that those will get bought up quickly in the market. More than ever, betting early or waiting for your number is incredibly important.