Here is my preview and best bet for the 2022 NFL regular-season opener between the Bills and Rams.
- Kickoff: Thursday, Sep. 8, 2022,'8:20 pm ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium
- TV: NBC
Bills at Rams: Consensus Lines
- Spread: Bills -2.5
- Over/Under: 52.5
- Moneyline: Bills -135, Rams +115
Bills at Rams: Betting Percentages
- Spread: Bills – 67% bets, 85% money
- Over/Under: Over – 70% bets, money data unavailable
- Moneyline: Rams – 68% bets, 71% money
Bills at Rams: Key Injuries
Buffalo Bills Injuries
- CB Tre’Davious White (knee, PUP)
Los Angeles Rams Injuries
- None
Injury Analysis
White is a top-10 (maybe top-five) cornerback. He rarely plays in the slot, but he possesses the talent to shadow and shut down perimeter receivers. For context: Compare his career numbers to those of Rams CB Jalen Ramsey (including postseason, per Pro Football Focus).
- Target Rate: White – 11.9%, Ramsey – 14.1%
- Reception Rate: White – 56.0%, Ramsey – 56.9%
- Yards per Coverage Snap: White – 0.85, Ramsey – 1.01
- Yards per Target: White – 7.14, Ramsey – 7.14
I’m not suggesting that White is as good as Ramsey: No one is. But the Bills are missing their top cover man — and after Ramsey he might be the NFL’s best corner. His absence will be felt.
Bills at Rams: Situational Spots
Buffalo Bills Situation
As I mention in my NFL schedule breakdown, the Bills start the year with a gauntlet of games: At Rams on Thursday Night Football to open the season, home vs. Titans on Monday Night Football, at Dolphins and Ravens, home vs. Steelers and at Chiefs for a Divisional Round rematch before getting the bye in Week 7. That's two overlapping 3-of-4 away stretches with home games against feisty franchises, and not one of their six opponents is a bottom-feeding team (at least based on my preseason power ratings).
It’s the season opener vs. the Super Bowl champions, so the Bills probably aren’t looking ahead to the rest of the schedule — but they are consensus Super Bowl favorites at +600, and if they lose this game … and then some games shortly after that, it will be a story.
This contest is a treacherous first step on what looks like a difficult journey. The pressure is almost certainly on.
Los Angeles Rams Situation
This is the first of back-to-back season-opening home games for the defending champions. Life is good.
Bills at Rams: Notable Trends
Buffalo Bills Trends
- QB Josh Allen: 18-8-2 ATS (30.9% ROI) on road
- QB Josh Allen: 8-3 ATS (42.0% ROI) in primetime (including postseason)
- HC Sean McDermott: 29-19-3 ATS (16.6% ROI) outside division
Los Angeles Rams Trends
- HC Sean McVay: 12-8 ATS (17.2% ROI) as underdog
- HC Sean McVay: 15-9-1 ATS (20.3% ROI) in primetime (including postseason)
- HC Sean McVay: 8-2 ATS (56.8% ROI) in Weeks 1-2
- Super Bowl Champs: 10-5-1 ATS in Week 1 primetime
Bills at Rams: Key Statistics
Buffalo Bills Offense vs. Los Angeles Rams Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.091 | 4 | -0.025 | 9 | 5 |
| Total SR | 47.4% | 5 | 44.5% | 15 | 10 |
| Total DVOA | 9.7% | 10 | -8.5% | 5 | -5 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.165 | 8 | 0.028 | 12 | 4 |
| Dropback SR | 51.1% | 3 | 47.5% | 21 | 18 |
| Pass DVOA | 20.7% | 13 | -1.2% | 6 | -7 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 4.5% | 2 | 7.6% | 8 | 6 |
| Rush EPA | -0.050 | 12 | -0.116 | 6 | -6 |
| Rush SR | 40.3% | 21 | 39.3% | 12 | -9 |
| Rush DVOA | 2.8% | 9 | -18.1% | 5 | -4 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.40 | 12 | 3.84 | 6 | -6 |
| Yards per Play | 5.7 | 10 | 5.2 | 7 | -3 |
| Points per Game | 28.4 | 3 | 21.9 | 15 | 12 |
| Rd vs. Hm DVOA | 16.8% | 3 | -3.5% | 18 | 15 |
Buffalo Bills Quarterback Statistics
2021: Josh Allen
- EPA + CPOE: 0.121 (No. 11)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 8.5 (No. 8)
- AY/A: 6.9 (No. 17)
- QBR: 60.7 (No. 6)
- ATS Value vs. Average: 4.17 (No. 5)
2019-21: Josh Allen
- EPA + CPOE: 0.126 (No. 14)
- Air Yards per Attempt: 8.8 (No. 7)
- AY/A: 7.4 (No. 16)
Career: Josh Allen
- AY/A: 7.1
- QB Elo per Game: 54.9
Los Angeles Rams Offense vs. Buffalo Bills Defense
| Metric | Offense | Rank | Defense | Rank | Offense Edge |
| EPA per Play | 0.082 | 8 | -0.111 | 1 | -7 |
| Total SR | 46.6% | 9 | 40.2% | 2 | -7 |
| Total DVOA | 10.6% | 8 | -18.0% | 1 | -7 |
| Dropback EPA | 0.183 | 4 | -0.114 | 1 | -3 |
| Dropback SR | 50.2% | 9 | 41.9% | 2 | -7 |
| Pass DVOA | 26.6% | 7 | -23.0% | 1 | -6 |
| Adj. Sack Rate | 5.2% | 7 | 7.6% | 7 | 0 |
| Rush EPA | -0.089 | 19 | -0.107 | 11 | -8 |
| Rush SR | 40.6% | 19 | 37.5% | 6 | -13 |
| Rush DVOA | -3.9% | 12 | -11.9% | 11 | -1 |
| Adj. Line Yards | 4.62 | 6 | 3.64 | 4 | -2 |
| Yards per Play | 6 | 3 | 4.6 | 1 | -2 |
| Points per Game | 27.1 | 7 | 17 | 1 | -6 |
| Hm vs. Rd DVOA | 14.7% | 8 | -17.5% | 4 | -4 |
Los Angeles Rams Quarterback Statistics