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Despite 10 games in the NFL's opening week kicking off with spreads of 3.5 or fewer points, upsets were few and far between, with favorites going 13-3 straight up.
But after getting a close-up look at all 32 teams and with more data to peruse, I am back with my NFL upset picks & predictions for Week 2 based on our best sports betting sites.
Nine of last week's 10-biggest favorites won their Week 1 matchups. The lone upset among those games was by the New England Patriots, who knocked off the Cincinnati Bengals 16-10.
The Bengals kicked off as the biggest moneyline favorite of all 16 games and ruined lots of folks' NFL survivor picks. The win was New England's first in a season opener since 2020, and the Patriots are back as one of my three NFL upset picks for Week 2.
There are fewer games with smaller point spreads than last week, as seven games on the 16-game Week 2 slate have spreads of 3.5 or fewer points, according to our NFL Week 2 odds. However, that also means more opportunities for bigger upsets, and I include one long shot in my trio of NFL upset picks for Week 2.
NFL underdogs to back: Week 2
NFL odds as of Wednesday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Browns (+158 via Caesars) at Jaguars ????
- Panthers (+240 via FanDuel) vs. Chargers ??
- Patriots (+150 via BetMGM) vs. Seahawks ???
Week 2 upset predictions
NFL picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change.
The Cleveland Browns laid an egg in a 33-17 home loss to the Dallas Cowboys last week, but losing season openers is not exactly new for the Browns. Cleveland is 3-22-1 in Week 1 games since re -entering the NFL in 1999.
But this is still a Browns defense that allowed not only an NFL-low 270.2 yards per game last season but an average of 14.9 first downs per game, which were the fewest by a team since 2010.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are getting praise for a near-upset win at the Miami Dolphins, but the Jaguars still punted four times, lost a fumble, and had a turnover on downs over their final six possessions.
Jacksonville has lost six of its last seven games dating back to last season and should not be this heavy of a favorite over a Browns team that won 11 games last year despite starting five different quarterbacks throughout the season.
There is a big 16-cent gap between Caesars' +158 odds and DraftKings' +142 odds at the low end of the market. Thus, I am making my $10 wager at Caesars, hoping to return $15.80 in profits after a Browns upset.
B est odds: +158 via Caesars | Implied probability: 38.76%
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The Carolina Panthers' 37-point loss to the New Orleans Saints in Week 1 was their fourth loss of 37 or more points in franchise history. Carolina is now amid its longest road losing streak (10 games) since 2010-11, but this is a home game against an overvalued Los Angeles Chargers team.
L.A.'s 176 rushing yards were its most in a game since Week 1 of last year. However, the Chargers still lost Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams from last year's team, and those three had the team's most scrimmage yards since drafting Justin Herbert in 2020.
I expect Carolina to expose a Chargers defense that ranked 24th in points per game, 28th in yards per game, and 28th in Efficiency in ways the Raiders could not.
Carolina's implied probability of winning outright is as high as 31.25% based on BetMGM's +220 odds, so I am grabbing the extra value at FanDuel, where a $10 winni ng wager would pay out $34.
Best odds: +240 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 29.41%
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The Patriots ran all over the Bengals in their Week 1 upset, averaging 4.4 yards per carry and totaling 170 yards on the ground. New England's five carries of 10-plus yards were tied for the second-most of any team, and that helped it earn a massive eight-minute edge in time of possession.
New England's defense was equally impressive as its run game, limiting all Bengals receivers not named Ja'Marr Chase to 15 catches on 23 targets for an average of 4.4 yards per target and a 27% first down percentage.
Suddenly, New England's season win total of O/U 5.5 seems low, and it has a real chance to go 2-0 when facing a Seattle Seahawks team that benefitted from a home game against a rookie quarterback in Week 1.
Seattle is 4-0 in its four games as road favorites since 2022, but I expect the Patriots, led by dual-threat quarterback Jacoby Brissett, to pull the upset in Foxborough.
Compared to my other wagers, there is less of a range among our best sports betting apps concerning New England's moneyline odds. DraftKings has the shortest odds (+142), and multiple sportsbooks are in agreement with the +150 odds. A $10 winning wager would return $15 in profits.
Best odds: +150 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 40.00%
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