Each week, we identify a trio of NFL upset picks that we believe will be most profitable, and we offer our top three NFL upset picks for Week 17 based on the best NFL odds at the best sportsbooks.
In Week 16, the NFL experienced a lack of upsets until Sunday night, when the New England Patriots defeated the Denver Broncos. Subsequently, the Las Vegas Raiders caused an upset on Christmas Day against the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Baltimore Ravens secured an unexpected win over the San Francisco 49ers.
The teams favored went 12-4 overall. Nevertheless, we secured excellent closing line value with two upset picks from the previous week – the Atlanta Falcons and Cleveland Browns. These teams began as small favorites after being listed as underdogs early in the week.
In addition to our NFL Week 17 predictions and NFL Week 17 player props, here are our best NFL upset picks for Week 17 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL upset picks: Week 17
- Raiders (+138 via BetRivers) vs. Colts ???
- Chargers (+205 via bet365) vs. Broncos ???
- Packers (+118 via BetRivers) vs. Vikings ????
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NFL upset predictions
We are making our first upset pick only a three-star play, as Las Vegas is prime for a letdown after its colossal road upset of the Chiefs. However, we were thoroughly impressed with the Raiders' defense, which scored two touchdowns and held Patrick Mahomes to 235 yards passing and a 31.6 QBR.
Raiders edge rusher Malcolm Koonce was a one-man wrecking machine with three sacks and four tackles for loss. That performance came on the heels of him ranking in the top five of all edge rushers in pass rush win rate since Week 9, and his ability to get to the quarterback is a nightmare for offensive lines who also have to deal with Maxx Crosby.
The Colts have been a much better road team (5-3) than a home one (3-4), and the Raiders are more than capable of an upset after going 4-3 in the seven games under interim head coach Antonio Pierce.
BetRivers is our go-to shop for this wager, as it is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering better than +135 odds on the Raiders.
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The Denver Broncos' playoff chances fell to 4% with last week's disappointing loss to the New England Patriots. Now, Denver needs to win its final two games to avoid a seventh straight losing season.
This week's opponent, the Los Angeles Chargers, nearly pulled off the biggest upset of the week last week with a 24-22 loss to the Buffalo Bills.
It is clear that the Chargers are playing harder for interim coach Giff Smith than they did for the fired Brandon Staley, and they surprisingly lost a game in which they won the turnover battle 3-0 and possessed the ball for six more minutes.
If the Chargers convert more of their drives into touchdowns instead of settling for field goals, they can beat a Broncos team that may be deflated after last week's loss.
New England finished with its second-highest point total of the season last week, and the Chargers' defense forced Buffalo into four punts, which is a monumental accomplishment, considering the Bills entered last week with punts on nearly one of every four drives on the road, the lowest rate in the league.
We have our choice between Caesars and bet365 for this wager, the only two of our best sports betting sites offering better than +200 odds to back the underdogs.
Green Bay entered last week ranked as a bottom-three run defense and had allowed an average of more than 158 yards rushing in the previous six games. And although it allowed 30 points to the Carolina Panthers, it held up well against the run, allowing just 96 yards and 3.8 yards per rush.
The Packers can commit more defenders to stop the run against a Minnesota Vikings offense that could be without wide receiver Jordan Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson, who left last week's loss to the Detroit Lions with an injury.
Packers quarterback Jordan Love has played exceptionally of late, entering last week in the top five of all quarterbacks in QBR, touchdown passes, and completions since Week 12. He followed that up with a 90.1 QBR and two touchdowns against Carolina while the offense ground out 162 yards on 34 carries.
This is a four-star play, as Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is 19-10 ATS as an underdog and has won 17 of 19 December games. Meanwhile, Vikings quarterback Nick Mullens is 5-14 SU in 19 career starts, including a 3-9 career home record.
There is excellent value to be had at BetRivers, as most of our best sportsbooks have +110 odds or shorter to back Green Bay on the moneyline.
NFL upset picks made Wednesday at 6:41 a.m. ET.
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