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The new season begins with a loaded 16-game Week 1 NFL slate. After a nearly seven-month layoff since the Kansas City Chiefs won their second straight Super Bowl title, they host the Baltimore Ravens in the opener on Thursday Night Football.
The Chiefs have won eight of their last nine season openers but drew a tough opening matchup with an AFC Championship Game rematch. Based on the best sports betting sites, I think their opponent is a strong choice for my opening Week 1 NFL upset picks. It's a brutal clash between two teams headlining the Super Bowl odds.
There are 10 games on the opening slate with a spread of 3.5 or fewer points in our NFL Week 1 odds. The only team that is a favorite of more than a touchdown is the Cincinnati Bengals, who are anywhere from 8 to 9.5-point favorites over the New England Patriots.
NFL underdogs to back: Week 1
NFL odds as of Wednesday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Ravens (+130 via DraftKings) at Chiefs ????
- Giants (+110 via FanDuel) vs. Vikings ????
- Commanders (+152 via FanDuel) at Buccaneers ???
Week 1 upset predictions
NFL picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change.
The Ravens are battling a historical trend in this matchup. The only three season-opening matchups between the defending Super Bowl champions and the reigning MVP have been won by the defending champs.
If this were a playoff game, I would give the Chiefs the edge based on Patrick Mahomes' 4-1 head-to-head record against Lamar Jackson. And while Jackson has a 53 Total QBR with a 5-3 TD-INT ratio in those matchups, he will be aided in this game by the offseason addition of running back D errick Henry-especially if teams continue to stack the box against the league's leading rusher since 2018.
Baltimore arguably gets Kansas City at the perfect time, as the Chiefs had to deal with several distractions since the end of last season. And John Harbaugh's teams are 46-31-3 (59.4%) ATS as underdogs, making him the third-most profitable coach in that split (min. 11 games).
The fact that Lamar Jackson is 7-0 ATS in his last seven games as an underdog is another reason for this four-star play. Baltimore is as low as +125 at BetMGM and bet365, so I am headed to DraftKings, where I will place my $10 wager to try to earn a $23 payout.
Best odds: +130 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 43.48%
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If the Chiefs win the award for the most distracting offseason due to off-the-field issues, the Minnesota Vikings will win the award for the team most affected by preseason injuries.
The Vikings still find themselves short road favorites in Week 1 despite losing rookie QB J.J. McCarthy for the season to a torn meniscus. They also have wide receiver Jordan Addison dealing with an ankle sprain.
The New York Giants finished their eighth season in the last ten years with six or fewer wins, and their offensive line allowed the second-most sacks in a season (85) since 1963, when team sacks became an official stat.
However, they added Jon Runyan and Jermaine Eluemenor to solidify the line, and rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers should make an immediate impact for a passing offense that has had the fewest 20-yard completions (193) of any team over the last five seasons.
New York has a 50% implied probability through BetMGM's +100 odds, so I am backing this wager at FanDuel early in the week in case the Giants flip to favorites. A $10 winning wager would pay out $21.
Best odds: +110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 47.62%
Last year's trio of quarterbacks, C.J. Stroud (Texans), Bryce Young (Panthers), and Anthony Richardson (Colts), tied the record for most rookie quarterbacks to start in Week 1.
They lost their first starts by a combined 40 points but lost to teams that finished a combined 29-22. No. 2 overall pick signal-caller Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders should have a much better chance at success against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers squad that is projected to win 7.5 games.
By contrast, Washington has an O/U of 6.5 wins despite playing in what is considered a much tougher division with two of the top-four NFC favo rites, the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys.
A Washington win would profit its backers $15.20 for every $10 wagered.
Best odds: +152 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 39.68%
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