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We often focus on the physical part of football while watching incredible feats of weekly athleticism from massive humans who have no business moving as fast as they do.
But there are daunting mental hurdles, too, along the development road, even for the most gifted early-round picks. There's a stark difference between the caliber of the opponents in college versus the NFL, and often an even more drastic one offensively when looking at the systems used.
Although a future star might produce perfectly fine or good numbers in his first few seasons, the true eruption frequently happens in the third year. Adjustments have been made, with the learning curve conquered.
More specifically, the third-year breakout focus is on wide receivers and tight ends, with those pass-catchers typically needing to hone their route tree and adjust to the size and speed of NFL defensive backfields.
With that in mind, you can find a betting edge at our best sportsbooks while zeroing in on potential NFL third-year breakout studs and pouncing now on prices that offer value.
Recent NFL third-year breakout stars
Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown produced one of the more impressive third-year eruptions in 2023. He was already very much a presence for the blossoming Lions while recording his first 1,000-plus-yard season in 2022.
But he took a sizable leap in yardage last season, going from 1,161 yards to 1,516 and becoming one of just three wideouts to end the campaign above the 1,500-yard plateau.
CeeDee Lamb, whose contract holdout could spell betting value, rose to prominence a year before that and began a sharp upward trajectory toward superstardom while abruptly rising from 79 receptions in 2021 to 107 in 2022.
There was a similar tal e with Justin Jefferson, who had already been shining, but then he went to another level entirely, going from 108 receptions for 1,616 yards to a whopping 128 grabs for 1,809 yards as a third-year wideout.
But perhaps the most notable recent third-year volcanic explosion belongs to Deebo Samuel.
The bruising and dynamic San Francisco 49ers receiver stayed healthy and was given a far more significant role during his third go-around. The result? He ascended from a previous single-season high of 805 receiving yards to 1,405 in 2021, all while adding 365 yards on the ground.
Top NFL third-year breakout candidates in 2024
A parade of incompetence at quarterback has kept Drake London from reaching his full potential so far after being selected 12th overall pick in 2022.
But much like Garrett Wilson, whom we'll discuss more in a moment, it's possible to throw on you r favorite rose-colored glasses and look at the positives from London.
Despite needing to receive passes from Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke over the past two seasons, and despite a horribly mismanaged team under former head coach Arthur Smith, London still showed flashes of brilliance in 2023 en route to knocking on the door of 1,000 yards (he finished with 905).
And although you can rightfully furrow your brow over the Falcons' draft decisions, their quarterback room undeniably improved tenfold with the additions of Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix.
The veteran Cousins is the prized free-agent acquisition expected to start immediately, and he's now a full participant in training camp after tearing his Achilles in 2023. Cousins was surging for the Minnesota Vikings last season prior to the injury while averaging 291.4 passing yards per game.
London ranked 23rd in air yards last campaign and 16th in 20-plus-yard plays, which is quality production considering the quarterback woes. Those numbers and others should receive a swift boost under Cousins, making the Over here very attainable.
Best bet: Drake London Over 1000.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365)
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It's hard to trust the health of a quarterback who will turn 41 years old late in the season and is coming off playing a mere four snaps before tearing his Achilles. Plus, the Jets have the longest Super Bowl drought among teams that have won at least one Lombardi Trophy.
But the Jets boosted their backup passer situation by bringing aboard Tyrod Taylor. Also, please recall that despite the clown car of passing ineptitude the Jets trotted out in 2023 after Rodgers' injury (featuring Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle), Wilson somehow still managed to post his second consecutive 1,000-plus-yard season (1,042 yards).
He finished fourth leaguewide in targets at 168, too. Similar volume should continue, though, with the chunk yardage more plentiful amid improved quarterback play. Wilson remained a deep-ball threat in 2023 despite the poor signal-callers, with 715 yards in 2023 coming after the catch ( 68.6%). He also ranked 20th in 30-plus-yard plays and 10th in air yards.
Combine that volume and production with the improved offense under Aaron Rodgers (or even Taylor), and there will be more scoring opportunities for the Jets. And for a receiver who's reached paydirt just seven times over two seasons, leading a low total here from our best sports betting sites.
Best bet: Garrett Wilson Over 7.5 touchdowns (-112 via FanDuel)
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Jameson Williams' career has progressed slightly past the liftoff stage due to circumstances within and out of his control.
The deep threat out of Alabama was the 12th overall pick in 2022 before a torn ACL derailed his rookie season. Then, there was a similar outcome in 2023 when Williams was forced to sit out six games after violating the league's gambling policy.
But we saw first a pulse and then promise from Williams late in 2023 when he was finally on the field often enough to develop a rapport with Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff. His opportunities increased toward the end, with 16 of his 42 targets coming over Williams' final three regular-season games.
He'll still surely be third in line for targets behind St. Brown and tight end Sam LaPorta, which should translate to plenty of chances on an offense that ranked second leaguewide in 2023 with 4,401 passing yards.
The standard yardage total for Williams through FanDuel is 650.5 in 2024, and that's being offered as high as 700.5 at Caesars. But let's get a little aggressive here with this juicy alternative line listed under FanDuel's specials and a bar Williams can clear in a loaded offense.
Best bet: Jameson Williams to finish with Over 749.5 receiving yards (+125 via FanDuel)
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- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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