It was a big weekend for restoring parity in the NFL as three of the league’s top four rated teams all lost, leaving experts scrambling to figure out which teams really are the best. Top-rated Buffalo lost at home to Minnesota, its second straight setback, and third straight performance out of the bye week that left something to be desired. Philadelphia, the NFC’s top team, saw its unbeaten run end with a loss to division rival Washington on Monday night. Finally, Dallas, fresh off its bye, went to Lambeau Field in Green Bay and lost its first 14-point fourth-quarter lead in 195 games.
You may recall the jinx that was growing regarding the covers chosen for our old digital publication, Point Spread Weekly. I hope I didn’t start one last week in this column by forecasting the Packers’ dire prospects for the rest of the season. All they did was respond with one of their best outings of the year, leaving quarterback Aaron Rodgers to proclaim “We’re not dead,” and perhaps leading to a new rallying cry. Similarly, the Buccaneers, written off by many a couple of weeks ago, put up their most complete performance of the season in Munich, Germany, in beating upstart Seattle.
One thing that is quite obvious in watching the NFL … every week is different. That in itself makes it a challenge for bettors. Let’s take a look at how the Week 10 action affected my strength ratings as we head into Week 11 and a slate of 14 games that features six road favorites. What could go wrong?
Power Ratings: Bills no longer a surefire No. 1
By statistical standards, the Bills are still out in front, but their grip on the top spot in my latest NFL Power Ratings is loosening. After all, what good is it if you dominate in wins but lose more often than other good teams? At 6-3 and sitting in third place in their own division, Buffalo is no longer the surefire Super Bowl favorite most experts pegged them to be. In fact, they are showing some weak spots. Which reminds me of a ribbing I got from VSiN producer Kelley Bydlon in the summer when I suggested that the Bills' recent playoff struggles and inability to get over the hump could be wearing on them and that they weren’t as much of a lock to pass their 11.5-season win prop, With eight games left, coach Sean McDermott’s team will have to go 6-2 to beat that. Or in other words, play better than they have so far. Elsewhere, we do have some teams outperforming expectations. Minnesota moved to 8-1 with the win in Orchard Park. The Giants continue to impress wi th their 7-2 mark. Kansas City is taking care of business at 7-2, the best record in the AFC, and Miami paces the AFC East with its 7-3 mark. On the opposite side, the Rams head the list of disappointments, but the Raiders and Broncos, teams that will square off again on Sunday, are not far behind.