Our first taste of Saturday NFL has arrived and we have three games on tap: Colts-Vikings, Ravens-Browns and Dolphins-Bills.
Let’s look at the slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to the Saturday NFL special edition of Action Network’s NFL betting primer.
In regular season Saturday games, the road team is 53-31-5 ATS (63.1%) over the past 20 years. Those teams are 10-2-3 ATS since 2018, covering the spread by 6.5 PPG.
The 10-2 Minnesota Vikings were underdogs last week vs. the 5-7 Detroit Lions. The markets got it right and now the Vikings are playing off a loss. In his NFL career, Kirk Cousins is 36-22 ATS after a SU loss.
Most Profitable QB ATS off a Loss – Past 20 Years
- Tom Brady: 45-24-1 ATS
- Drew Brees: 59-39-2 ATS
- Aaron Rodgers: 45-26-1 ATS
- Andrew Luck: 25-9 ATS
- Kirk Cousins: 36-22 ATS
The Browns are 8-8 SU and 4-12 ATS vs. the AFC North under Kevin Stefanski.
In the past 20 years, Stefanski is the second-least profitable coach ATS vs. his own division, the AFC North (140th of 141 coaches; Joe Philbin is the worst at 5-14-1 ATS).
In December or later vs. AFC North under Stefanski, the Browns are 0-3 ATS.
Saturday NFL Slate'
| TD notes, top props and more | ||
Game-By-Game Breakdown
|
Colts at Vikings' Channel: NFL Network | 1 p.m. ET (SAT) Line: MIN (-4) | O/U: 48.5 |
| Matt Ryan, IND | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
| 5-6 ATS 4-6-1 SU | 116-123-4 ATS 128-114-1 SU | 59-62-2 ATS 59-63-1 SU |
| Kirk Cousins, MIN | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
| 6-6-1 ATS 10-3 SU | 68-66-2 ATS 70-64-2 SU | 32-34-1 ATS 41-26 SU |
Playoff Scenario:
IND eliminated == IND L + TEN W +' NYJ W or IND L + TEN W +' NE W
+ Matt Ryan has excelled on short rest in his career (20-9 ATS), 2nd-best ATS over the past 20 years (behind Philip Rivers) and when he's on full rest (7 days) or more, he's just 91-104-4 ATS in his career.
+ Colts are 2-11 against the first half spread this season and are 2-13 in their past 15 first halves ATS dating back to last year. They are also 10-3 to the first half under, 2nd-best of any team in the NFL.
In the second half this season, the Colts are 9-4 2H ATS, too.
+ Colts 9-4 to the under this season – Colts under 14 of past 18 games.
- Colts are 6-7 on a 6-point teaser this season, the worst record of any team in the NFL.
+ In the first half, the under is 10-3 in the Colts 13 games this season, 2nd-best 1h under win percentage this season.
+ Ryan hasn't had a lot of success vs. good teams. He is 6-12-1 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU since 2020, 2nd-least profitable QB in the NFL ahead of just Matthew Stafford.
He's 3-8-1 ATS in his past 11 starts vs. above .500 SU teams
Playoff Scenario:
MIN NFC N == MIN W or DET L
+ The Vikings are now 10-3 with a negative point differential (-1 pt diff)
9-0 SU in one-score games
+ Cousins with Vikings: 38-38-2 ATS, 30-28 ATS with Washington.
1p ET or earlier: 47-35-2 ATS
4p ET or later: 21-31 ATS
+ Kirk Cousins has played at home off a SU loss six times since the start of last season and the Vikings are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS.
+ Since 2015, Vikings are 19-6 ATS at home after a SU loss, most profitable team in the NFL.
+ With their victory over the Jets in Week 13, the Vikings have won 12 consecutive games as a favorite, dating back to last season. That is the longest current streak in the NFL.
Vikings last loss as a favorite? December 5, 2021 vs. Lions
+ The Vikings have not been able to take advantage of bad offenses this season for bettors. They are 3-0 SU and 0-2-1 ATS vs. teams scoring fewer than 20 PPG this year. Vikings were 4-1 ATS in that spot between 2020 and 2021.
+ In December or later, it has been profitable to back good teams (66%+ win pct) that have struggled to cover the spread (50% or less ATS win pct) as they have gone 104-78-3 ATS (57.1%) last 20 years.
Lead NFL Receiving Yards Battle:
- Justin Jefferson: 1,500 (N/A now; +150 last week, +800 open)
- Tyreek Hill: 1,460 (N/A now; -120 last week, 18-1 open)
Offensive POY Battle:
- Justin Jefferson: +140
- Jalen Hurts: +275
- Tyreek Hill: +300
- The Vikings have a 76% win percentage with a negative point differential. Over the past 20 years, they are only the third team to play a game in December or later with a 70%+ win percentage and a negative point differential
- 2022 Vikings
- 2020 Browns — Lost in Divisional Round
- 2004 Falcons — Lost in Conference Championship
|
Ravens at Browns' |
| TBD, BAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Road (Career) |
| XXX ATS XXX SU | XXX ATS XXX SU | XXX ATS XXX SU |
| Deshaun Watson, CLE | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Home (Career) |
| 1-1 ATS 1-1 SU | 30-28 ATS 27-29-2 SU | 12-16 ATS 16-12 SU |
+ The Ravens are 10-4 ATS in their past 14 games vs. Browns dating back to 2015 and Baltimore is 6-1-1 in its past eight road games in Cleveland.
+ For the Ravens, it’s all about motivation. After coming off facing a divisional opponent, as long as they don't win by double-digits, they are 39-22-1 ATS in their next game. If they beat that divisional team by double-digits, they are 9-11-1 ATS in their next game under John Harbaugh.
+ Lamar Jackson is 46-19 SU and 33-32 ATS in his career. Since his first start in 2018, four other Ravens QBs have made a start — Robert Griffin, Josh Johnson, Joe Flacco, Tyler Huntley. Those QBs are 7-10 SU/ATS.
+ Games with 10+ MPH winds are 89-58 (60.5%) to the under over the past two seasons. Check the weather report!
+ Between 2016 and 2021, John Harbaugh was 63-36-2 against the first half spread. This season, the Ravens are 5-7-1 against the first half spread.
+ Harbaugh has dominated inferior opponents in terms of record. The Ravens are 26-5 SU, but just 15-16 ATS in those games. Of the 31 games, Baltimore has been an underdog three times. They are 3-0 SU/ATS in those games.
+ Ravens since 2017…
- Home: 21-28 ATS (1-5 ATS this season)
- Road: 30-17-1 ATS (5-2 ATS this season)
+ Jackson: 13-20 ATS at home | 20-12 ATS on road
Jackson' vs. Browns: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS (4-1 SU/ATS vs. Stefanski)
Playoff Scenario:
CLE eliminated == CLE L + LAC W or CLE L + NYJ W or CLE L + NE W
+ Deshaun Watson's third start for the Browns is this week.
30-28 SU, 27-29-2 ATS career
Watson is 15-7 SU vs. under .500 SU teams and 8-15 SU vs. teams above .500 SU