Who will lead the NFL in receiving yards in 2022?
This wasn’t close a year ago when Cooper Kupp had one of the best seasons for a wide receiver in NFL history. He racked up 1,947 yards on 145 catches for 16 touchdowns and led the league in all three categories. Kupp more than lapped the field as he finished with 331 yards more than the closest competitor.
Still, of all the major season-leader awards, books always think this race is the most open and price it accordingly. That means plenty of longer odds — even for Kupp — and upside for bettors if we make the right choice.
There’s only one season leader, so medians and likely outcomes are of little use. We need unpredictable outliers, and while we can’t exactly predict randomness, we use schemes, expected target share, catch rate and yards per reception (YPR) to project best-case scenarios and find value.