While many of us at VSiN are putting the final touches on our 2022 NFL Betting Guide, due out in two weeks, a three-week schedule of exhibition football is in front of us, beginning with two games Thursday night.
Naturally, the scope of NFL betting changes from the preseason to the regular season, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities over the next three weeks. In fact, I know some professional bettors who believe the chances of cashing in on preseason games is better than during the regular season. Of course, there are others who don’t touch these games.
In any case, there’s no need to pay attention to anything regular-season related when you handicap the preseason. In fact, I keep an entirely separate database and set of strength ratings for these games. The strength ratings in this report are based entirely on my analysis of each team’s preseason performance.
The 2020 preseason was canceled due to COVID-19, but last year most teams played three games and the same holds true this year. The change in 2021 from four games to three was huge because it changed the routine for how teams prepare in August. Last year we saw very few stars, quarterbacks in particular, even take a preseason snap. In the past, with a four-game schedule, coaches typically ramped up their starters’ playing time in each of the first three games, culminating with the so-called dress rehearsal in Week 3. Week 4 was for evaluating the lower-end talent on the roster ahead of final cuts, and key players usually didn’t see the field. With the three-game slate, it seems that only players in position battles are being looked at extensively.
Perhaps the single most important concept you’ll want to consider is that some coaches use these games to establish momentum or a winning culture. Others couldn’t care less and just want to avoid key injuries. For instance, the Ravens under John Harbaugh have easily been the league’s best preseason team, and you’ll see below that they own a spectacular 20-0 record since 2016, going 18-1-1 ATS. The Browns, and more recently the Bills, have also turned it on in August. On the other hand, the Falcons have become known for essentially tanking the preseason in favor of keeping players healthy. The Lions share a similar philosophy.
The other important factor, which typically has a huge impact on closing lines, is whether or not a starting quarterback is going to play. If a spread looks off, or falls outside the + 3 to -3 line range, it’s a good bet that one of the QBs is not suiting up. Looking at last year’s schedule, there were only six out of 48 games in which I did not make a ratings adjustment due to a quarterback sitting out.
I will be posting weekly game ratings for every matchup over the next three weeks, both at VSiN.com and in Point Spread Weekly. Again, these ratings are all exclusively based on preseason analysis.
Here’s a look at some of the more notable head-to-head trends to consider over the next three weeks:
— Week 1, New England at N.Y. Giants: Underdogs are on a 5-0 ATS run
— Week 1, Philadelphia at N.Y. Jets: Home teams are on 7-1 ATS run (lost last year)
— Week 1, Miami at Tampa Bay: Road teams and underdogs are on a 4-0 ATS run
— Week 2, Carolina at New England: Last five meetings have gone Under the total
— Week 3, Green Bay at Kansas City: Favorites are on a 5-0 SU and ATS run
— Week 3, Buffalo at Carolina: Last four meetings went Over the total
— Week 3, Washington at Baltimore: Ravens are on a 4-0 SU and ATS run (19.8 average margin of victory)
— Week 3, N.Y. Giants at N.Y. Jets: Designated road team is on a 10-1 ATS run
Before you dig into the team-by-team previews, pay special attention to some of these preseason trends:
— Atlanta is on a 1-15 ATS slide versus AFC teams
— Buffalo has won its last eight games, averaging 25.8 PPG
— Chicago is on a 10-3 ATS run as an underdog
— Cleveland totals are on a 19-3-1 Under run
— Green Bay is on a 9-1 ATS run as a favorite
— Indianapolis is 8-2 SU and 8-0-2 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog
— Minnesota is on a 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS run in road games
— N.Y. Giants are on a 16-4 ATS run as underdogs
— Tampa Bay is 4-12 SU and 3-13 ATS at home versus 9-6 SU and 10-5 ATS on the road since 2013
Arizona
Head coach: Kliff Kingsbury (since 2019)
Quarterback rotation: Kyler Murray, Colt McCoy, Trace McSorley, Jarrett Guarantano
Steve’s preseason power rating: 18 (T25th)
Preseason record since 2016: 8-11 SU and 8-10-1 ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 7-12
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 1-3 SU and ATS (Bruce Arians)
2017: 2-3 SU and 2-2 ATS (Bruce Arians)
2018: 3-1 SU and ATS (Steve Wilks)
2019: 1-3 SU and ATS (Kliff Kingsbury)
2021: 1-1 SU and ATS (Kliff Kingsbury)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 5-5 (50%)
Road/neutral: 3-5 (38%)
Vs. AFC: 4-8 (33%)
Vs. NFC: 4-2 (67%)
As favorite: 6-4 (60%)
As underdog: 2-5 (29%)
Off SU win: 2-5 (29%)
Off SU loss: 3-4 (43%)
Atlanta
Head coach: Arthur Smith (since 2021)
Quarterback rotation: Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ritter, Feleipe Franks
Steve’s preseason power rating: 18.5 (T23rd)
Preseason record since 2016: 4-16 SU and 3-17 ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 6-14
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS (Dan Quinn)
2017: 0-4 SU and ATS (Dan Quinn)
2018: 0-4 SU and ATS (Dan Quinn)
2019: 1-4 SU and ATS (Dan Quinn)
2021: 0-3 SU and ATS (Arthur Smith)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 1-9 (10%)
Road/neutral: 2-8 (20%)
Vs. AFC: 2-15 (12%)
Vs. NFC: 1-2 (33%)
As favorite: 1-6 (14%)
As underdog: 2-10 (17%)
Off SU win: 1-1 (50%)
Off SU loss: 1-12 (8%)
Baltimore
Head coach: John Harbaugh (since 2008)
Quarterback rotation: Lamar Jackson, Tyler Huntley, Brett Hundley, Anthony Brown
Steve’s preseason power rating: 22.5 (1st)
Preseason record since 2016: 20-0 SU and 18-1-1 ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 6-13-1
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 4-0 SU and ATS (John Harbaugh)
2017: 4-0 SU and ATS (John Harbaugh)
2018: 5-0 SU and 3-1 ATS (John Harbaugh)
2019: 4-0 SU and ATS (John Harbaugh)
2021: 3-0 SU and ATS (John Harbaugh)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 9-0 (100%)
Road/neutral: 9-1 (90%)
Vs. AFC: 5-0 (100%)
Vs. NFC: 13-1 (93%)
As favorite: 11-1 (92%)
As underdog: 7-0 (100%)
Off SU win: 14-0 (100%)
Off SU loss: 0-0 (0%)
Buffalo
Head coach: Sean McDermott (since 2017)
Quarterback rotation: Josh Allen, Case Keenum, Matt Barkley
Steve’s preseason power rating: 20.5 (T3rd)
Preseason record since 2016: 11-8 SU and ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 9-10
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 1-3 SU and ATS (Rex Ryan)
2017: 1-3 SU and ATS (Sean McDermott)
2018: 2-2 SU and ATS (Sean McDermott)
2019: 4-0 SU and ATS (Sean McDermott)
2021: 3-0 SU and ATS (Sean McDermott)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 5-4 (56%)
Road/neutral: 6-4 (60%)
Vs. AFC: 2-3 (40%)
Vs. NFC: 9-5 (64%)
As favorite: 3-3 (50%)
As underdog: 7-5 (58%)
Off SU win: 5-2 (71%)
Off SU loss: 4-3 (57%)
Carolina
Head coach: Matt Rhule (since 2020)
Quarterback rotation: Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Matt Corral, P.J. Walker
Steve’s preseason power rating: 19 (T16th)
Preseason record since 2016: 10-9 SU and 9-8-2 ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 12-6-1
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 2-2 SU and ATS (Ron Rivera)
2017: 2-2 SU and 1-2 ATS (Ron Rivera)
2018: 3-1 SU and ATS (Ron Rivera)
2019: 2-2 SU and ATS (Ron Rivera)
2021: 1-2 SU and 1-1-1 ATS (Matt Rhule)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 6-4 (60%)
Road/neutral: 3-4 (43%)
Vs. AFC: 8-8 (50%)
Vs. NFC: 1-0 (100%)
As favorite: 5-3 (63%)
As underdog: 4-4 (50%)
Off SU win: 2-5 (29%)
Off SU loss: 4-2 (67%)
Chicago
Head coach: Matt Eberflus (1st season)
Quarterback rotation: Justin Fields, Trevor Siemian, Nathan Peterman
Steve’s preseason power rating: 20.5 (T3rd)
Preseason record since 2016: 8-12 SU and 9-10-1 ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 12-7-1
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS (John Fox)
2017: 2-2 SU and ATS (John Fox)
2018: 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS (Matt Nagy)
2019: 1-3 SU and ATS (Matt Nagy)
2021: 2-1 SU and 1-1-1 ATS (Matt Nagy)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 2-8 (20%)
Road/neutral: 7-2 (78%)
Vs. AFC: 8-8 (50%)
Vs. NFC: 1-2 (33%)
As favorite: 1-7 (13%)
As underdog: 8-2 (80%)
Off SU win: 2-4 (33%)
Off SU loss: 5-3 (63%)
Cincinnati
Head coach: Zac Taylor (since 2019)
Quarterback rotation: Joe Burrow, Brandon Allen, Jake Browning
Steve’s preseason power rating: 18 (T25th)
Preseason record since 2016: 7-12 SU and 9-10 ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 8-11
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 1-3 SU and ATS (Marvin Lewis)
2017: 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS (Marvin Lewis)
2018: 3-1 SU and ATS (Marvin Lewis)
2019: 1-3 SU and ATS (Zac Taylor)
2021: 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS (Zac Taylor)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 2-7 (22%)
Road/neutral: 7-3 (70%)
Vs. AFC: 2-7 (22%)
Vs. NFC: 7-3 (70%)
As favorite: 1-6 (14%)
As underdog: 7-4 (64%)
Off SU win: 3-4 (43%)
Off SU loss: 3-4 (43%)
Cleveland
Head coach: Kevin Stefanski (since 2021)
Quarterback rotation: Jacoby Brissett, Josh Dobbs, Josh Rosen, Deshaun Watson (eligible to play in preseason games)
Steve’s preseason power rating: 21 (2nd)
Preseason record since 2016: 13-6 SU and 11-8 ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 3-15-1
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 0-4 SU and ATS (Hue Jackson)
2017: 4-0 SU and ATS (Hue Jackson)
2018: 3-1 SU and ATS (Hue Jackson)
2019: 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS (Freddie Kitchens)
2021: 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS (Kevin Stefanski)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 4-5 (44%)
Road/neutral: 7-3 (70%)
Vs. AFC: 2-1 (67%)
Vs. NFC: 9-7 (56%)
As favorite: 5-7 (42%)
As underdog: 5-1 (83%)
Off SU win: 6-3 (67%)
Off SU loss: 1-4 (20%)
Dallas
Head coach: Mike McCarthy (since 2020)
Quarterback rotation: Dak Prescott, Cooper Rush, Will Grier, Ben DiNucci
Steve’s preseason power rating: 18 (T25th)
Preseason record since 2016: 6-14 SU and 5-12-3 ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 9-11
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS (Jason Garrett)
2017: 3-1 SU and 1-1 ATS (Jason Garrett)
2018: 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS (Jason Garrett)
2019: 2-2 SU and 1-2 ATS (Jason Garrett)
2021: 0-4 SU and ATS (Mike McCarthy)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 3-6 (33%)
Road/neutral: 2-6 (25%)
Vs. AFC: 3-6 (33%)
Vs. NFC: 2-6 (25%)
As favorite: 1-5 (17%)
As underdog: 3-7 (30%)
Off SU win: 2-3 (40%)
Off SU loss: 1-7 (13%)
Denver
Head coach: Nathaniel Hackett (1st season)
Quarterback rotation: Russell Wilson, Josh Johnson, Brett Rypien
Steve’s preseason power rating: 20.5 (T3rd)
Preseason record since 2016: 13-7 SU and 11-8-1 ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 8-12
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 2-2 SU and ATS (Gary Kubiak)
2017: 4-0 SU and 3-0 ATS (Vance Joseph)
2018: 2-2 SU and ATS (Vance Joseph)
2019: 2-3 SU and ATS (Vic Fangio)
2021: 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS (Vic Fangio)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 3-5 (38%)
Road/neutral: 8-3 (73%)
Vs. AFC: 0-0 (0%)
Vs. NFC: 11-8 (58%)
As favorite: 6-4 (60%)
As underdog: 4-4 (50%)
Off SU win: 4-4 (50%)
Off SU loss: 3-3 (50%)
Detroit
Head coach: Dan Campbell (since 2021)
Quarterback rotation: Jared Goff, Tim Boyle, David Blough
Steve’s preseason power rating: 16.5 (32nd)
Preseason record since 2016: 5-14 SU and 8-11 ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 12-7
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 2-2 SU and ATS (Jim Caldwell)
2017: 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS (Jim Caldwell)
2018: 1-3 SU and ATS (Matt Patricia)
2019: 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS (Matt Patricia)
2021: 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS (Dan Campbell)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 3-7 (30%)
Road/neutral: 5-4 (56%)
Vs. AFC: 7-10 (41%)
Vs. NFC: 1-1 (50%)
As favorite: 2-5 (29%)
As underdog: 5-6 (45%)
Off SU win: 2-2 (50%)
Off SU loss: 4-6 (40%)
Green Bay
Head coach: Matt LaFleur (since 2019)
Quarterback rotation: Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love, Danny Etling
Steve’s preseason power rating: 19 (T16th)
Preseason record since 2016: 10-9 SU and 10-8-1 ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 8-11
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 3-1 SU and ATS (Mike McCarthy)
2017: 3-1 SU and 3-0 ATS (Mike McCarthy)
2018: 2-2 SU and ATS (Mike McCarthy)
2019: 2-2 SU and ATS (Matt Lafleur)
2021: 0-3 SU and ATS (Matt LaFleur)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 8-2 (80%)
Road/neutral: 2-6 (25%)
Vs. AFC: 6-8 (43%)
Vs. NFC: 4-0 (100%)
As favorite: 6-1 (86%)
As underdog: 4-6 (40%)
Off SU win: 4-3 (57%)
Off SU loss: 2-4 (33%)
Houston
Head coach: Lovie Smith (1st season)
Quarterback rotation: Davis Mills, Kyle Allen, Jeff Driskel, Kevin Hogan
Steve’s preseason power rating: 17.5 (30th)
Preseason record since 2016: 10-7-1 SU and ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 8-10
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 3-0-1 SU and 4-0 ATS (Bill O’Brien)
2017: 1-2 SU and ATS (Bill O’Brien)
2018: 3-1 SU and 2-1 ATS (Bill O’Brien)
2019: 1-3 SU and ATS (Bill O’Brien)
2021: 2-1 SU and ATS (David Culley)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 5-2 (71%)
Road/neutral: 5-5 (50%)
Vs. AFC: 2-0 (100%)
Vs. NFC: 8-7 (53%)
As favorite: 5-3 (63%)
As underdog: 5-4 (56%)
Off SU win: 3-4 (43%)
Off SU loss: 3-1 (75%)
Indianapolis
Head coach: Frank Reich (since 2018)
Quarterback rotation: Matt Ryan, Nick Foles, Sam Ehlinger, Jack Coan
Steve’s preseason power rating: 19.5 (T11th)
Preseason record since 2016: 11-8 SU and 9-7-3 ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 8-11
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 2-2 SU and ATS (Chuck Pagano)
2017: 2-2 SU and 1-2 ATS (Chuck Pagano)
2018: 3-1 SU and 3-0 ATS (Frank Reich)
2019: 1-3 SU and ATS (Frank Reich)
2021: 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS (Frank Reich)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 1-6 (14%)
Road/neutral: 8-1 (89%)
Vs. AFC: 5-4 (56%)
Vs. NFC: 4-3 (57%)
As favorite: 1-6 (14%)
As underdog: 7-0 (100%)
Off SU win: 3-2 (60%)
Off SU loss: 4-3 (57%)
Jacksonville
Head coach: Doug Pederson (1st season)
Quarterback rotation: Trevor Lawrence, C.J. Beathard, Jake Luton, Kyle Sloter
Steve’s preseason power rating: 19 (T16th)
Preseason record since 2016: 7-12 SU and 9-9-1 ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 9-10
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS (Gus Bradley)
2017: 2-2 SU and 2-1 ATS (Doug Marrone)
2018: 3-1 SU and ATS (Doug Marrone)
2019: 0-4 SU and ATS (Doug Marrone)
2021: 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS (Urban Meyer)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 2-6 (25%)
Road/neutral: 7-3 (70%)
Vs. AFC: 2-4 (33%)
Vs. NFC: 7-5 (58%)
As favorite: 3-6 (33%)
As underdog: 6-3 (67%)
Off SU win: 3-1 (75%)
Off SU loss: 5-4 (56%)
Kansas City
Head coach: Andy Reid (since 2013)
Quarterback rotation: Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne, Shane Buechele, Dustin Crum
Steve’s preseason power rating: 20.5 (T3rd)
Preseason record since 2016: 10-9 SU and 9-10 ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 8-11
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 2-2 SU and ATS (Andy Reid)
2017: 2-2 SU and ATS (Andy Reid)
2018: 2-2 SU and ATS (Andy Reid)
2019: 1-3 SU and ATS (Andy Reid)
2021: 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS (Andy Reid)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 4-5 (44%)
Road/neutral: 5-5 (50%)
Vs. AFC: 3-2 (60%)
Vs. NFC: 6-8 (43%)
As favorite: 8-8 (50%)
As underdog: 1-2 (33%)
Off SU win: 2-4 (33%)
Off SU loss: 5-3 (63%)
Los Angeles Chargers
Head coach: Brandon Staley (since 2021)
Quarterback rotation: Justin Herbert, Chase Daniel, Easton Stick, Brandon Peters
Steve’s preseason power rating: 18 (T25th)
Preseason record since 2016: 6-13 SU and 7-11-1 ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 6-11-2
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 1-3 SU and ATS (Mike McCoy)
2017: 1-3 SU and ATS (Anthony Lynn)
2018: 2-2 SU and ATS (Anthony Lynn)
2019: 1-3 SU and 1-2 ATS (Anthony Lynn)
2021: 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS (Brandon Staley)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 3-5 (38%)
Road/neutral: 4-6 (40%)
Vs. AFC: 0-1 (0%)
Vs. NFC: 7-10 (41%)
As favorite: 3-2 (60%)
As underdog: 4-8 (33%)
Off SU win: 1-3 (25%)
Off SU loss: 5-4 (56%)
Los Angeles Rams
Head coach: Sean McVay (since 2017)
Quarterback rotation: Matthew Stafford, John Wolford, Bryce Perkins
Steve’s preseason power rating: 17 (31st)
Preseason record since 2016: 8-11 SU and 9-9-1 ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 6-12-1
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS (Jeff Fisher)
2017: 2-2 SU and ATS (Sean McVay)
2018: 2-2 SU and ATS (Sean McVay)
2019: 2-2 SU and 2-1 ATS (Sean McVay)
2021: 0-3 SU and 2-1 ATS (Sean McVay)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 6-3 (67%)
Road/neutral: 3-6 (33%)
Vs. AFC: 8-5 (62%)
Vs. NFC: 1-4 (20%)
As favorite: 1-1 (50%)
As underdog: 8-7 (53%)
Off SU win: 4-3 (57%)
Off SU loss: 4-2 (67%)
Las Vegas
Head coach: Josh McDaniels (1st season)
Quarterback rotation: Derek Carr, Jarrett Stidham, Nick Mullens, Chase Garbers
Steve’s preseason power rating: 20.5 (T3rd)
Preseason record since 2016: 9-10 SU and ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 8-10-1
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 1-3 SU and ATS (Jack Del Rio)
2017: 0-4 SU and ATS (Jack Del Rio)
2018: 3-1 SU and ATS (Jon Gruden)
2019: 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS (Jon Gruden)
2021: 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS (Jon Gruden)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 4-4 (50%)
Road/neutral: 5-6 (45%)
Vs. AFC: 0-1 (0%)
Vs. NFC: 9-9 (50%)
As favorite: 4-5 (44%)
As underdog: 4-5 (44%)
Off SU win: 4-4 (50%)
Off SU loss: 1-5 (17%)
Miami
Head coach: Mike McDaniel (1st season)
Quarterback rotation: Tua Tagovailoa, Teddy Bridgewater, Skylar Thompson
Steve’s preseason power rating: 19.5 (T11th)
Preseason record since 2016: 10-9 SU and 11-8 ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 11-7-1
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 2-2 SU and ATS (Adam Gase)
2017: 2-2 SU and ATS (Adam Gase)
2018: 1-3 SU and ATS (Adam Gase)
2019: 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS (Brian Flores)
2021: 2-1 SU and ATS (Brian Flores)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 4-4 (50%)
Road/neutral: 7-4 (64%)
Vs. AFC: 2-3 (40%)
Vs. NFC: 9-5 (64%)
As favorite: 4-4 (50%)
As underdog: 6-3 (67%)
Off SU win: 3-3 (50%)
Off SU loss: 5-3 (63%)
Minnesota
Head coach: Kevin O'Connell (1st season)
Quarterback rotation: Kirk Cousins, Kellen Mond, Sean Mannion
Steve’s preseason power rating: 18.5 (T23rd)
Preseason record since 2016: 12-7 SU and 11-8 ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 10-9
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 4-0 SU and ATS (Mike Zimmer)
2017: 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS (Mike Zimmer)
2018: 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS (Mike Zimmer)
2019: 3-1 SU and ATS (Mike Zimmer)
2021: 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS (Mike Zimmer)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 4-6 (40%)
Road/neutral: 7-2 (78%)
Vs. AFC: 6-5 (55%)
Vs. NFC: 5-3 (63%)
As favorite: 5-6 (45%)
As underdog: 5-2 (71%)
Off SU win: 6-4 (60%)
Off SU loss: 1-3 (25%)
New England
Head coach: Bill Belichick (since 2000)
Quarterback rotation: Mac Jones, Brian Hoyer, Bailey Zappe
Steve’s preseason power rating: 19 (T16th)
Preseason record since 2016: 13-6 SU and 10-9 ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 10-9
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS (Bill Belichick)
2017: 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS (Bill Belichick)
2018: 3-1 SU and ATS (Bill Belichick)
2019: 3-1 SU and ATS (Bill Belichick)
2021: 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS (Bill Belichick)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 5-4 (56%)
Road/neutral: 5-5 (50%)
Vs. AFC: 1-2 (33%)
Vs. NFC: 9-7 (56%)
As favorite: 5-9 (36%)
As underdog: 5-0 (100%)
Off SU win: 5-6 (45%)
Off SU loss: 1-2 (33%)
New Orleans Saints
Head coach: Dennis Allen (1st season)
Quarterback rotation: Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, Ian Book, Taysom Hill
Steve’s preseason power rating: 20.5 (T3rd)
Preseason record since 2016: 8-10 SU and 6-11-1 ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 5-13
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 0-4 SU and ATS (Sean Payton)
2017: 2-2 SU and ATS (Sean Payton)
2018: 3-1 SU and ATS (Sean Payton)
2019: 2-2 SU and 1-2 ATS (Sean Payton)
2021: 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS (Sean Payton)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 2-7 (22%)
Road/neutral: 4-4 (50%)
Vs. AFC: 5-9 (36%)
Vs. NFC: 1-2 (33%)
As favorite: 4-7 (36%)
As underdog: 2-4 (33%)
Off SU win: 3-3 (50%)
Off SU loss: 2-4 (33%)
New York Giants
Head coach: Brian Daboll (1st season)
Quarterback rotation: Daniel Jones, Tyrod Taylor, Davis Webb
Steve’s preseason power rating: 19.5 (T11th)
Preseason record since 2016: 10-9 SU and 11-8 ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 9-10
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 2-2 SU and ATS (Ben McAdoo)
2017: 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS (Ben McAdoo)
2018: 2-2 SU and ATS (Pat Shurmur)
2019: 4-0 SU and ATS (Pat Shurmur)
2021: 0-3 SU and 2-1 ATS (Joe Judge)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 4-6 (40%)
Road/neutral: 7-2 (78%)
Vs. AFC: 9-8 (53%)
Vs. NFC: 2-0 (100%)
As favorite: 1-5 (17%)
As underdog: 9-2 (82%)
Off SU win: 6-1 (86%)
Off SU loss: 4-3 (57%)
New York Jets
Head coach: Robert Saleh (2nd season)
Quarterback rotation: Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Mike White, Chris Streveler
Steve’s preseason power rating: 19.5 (T11th)
Preseason record since 2016: 8-10-1 SU and 9-10 ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 5-14
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 1-3 SU and ATS (Todd Bowles)
2017: 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS (Todd Bowles)
2018: 1-3 SU and ATS (Todd Bowles)
2019: 2-2 SU and ATS (Adam Gase)
2021: 2-0-1 SU and 2-1 ATS (Robert Saleh)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 5-4 (56%)
Road/neutral: 4-6 (40%)
Vs. AFC: 2-0 (100%)
Vs. NFC: 7-10 (41%)
As favorite: 6-5 (55%)
As underdog: 3-4 (43%)
Off SU win: 1-5 (17%)
Off SU loss: 4-4 (50%)
Philadelphia
Head coach: Nick Sirianni (2nd season)
Quarterback rotation: Jalen Hurts, Gardner Minshew, Carson Strong, Reid Sinnett
Steve’s preseason power rating: 18 (T25th)
Preseason record since 2016: 8-10-1 SU and 9-10 ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 7-11-1
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 4-0 SU and ATS (Doug Pederson)
2017: 2-2 SU and ATS (Doug Pederson)
2018: 1-3 SU and ATS (Doug Pederson)
2019: 1-3 SU and ATS (Doug Pederson)
2021: 0-2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS (Nick Sirianni)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 5-5 (50%)
Road/neutral: 4-5 (44%)
Vs. AFC: 8-9 (47%)
Vs. NFC: 1-1 (50%)
As favorite: 4-4 (50%)
As underdog: 5-5 (50%)
Off SU win: 4-2 (67%)
Off SU loss: 4-4 (50%)
Pittsburgh
Head coach: Mike Tomlin (since 2007)
Quarterback rotation: Mitchell Trubisky, Mason Rudolph, Kenny Pickett, Chris Oladokun
Steve’s preseason power rating: 20 (10th)
Preseason record since 2016: 13-7 SU and 11-9 ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 9-11
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 1-3 SU and ATS (Mike Tomlin)
2017: 3-1 SU and ATS (Mike Tomlin)
2018: 3-1 SU and ATS (Mike Tomlin)
2019: 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS (Mike Tomlin)
2021: 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS (Mike Tomlin)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 4-5 (44%)
Road/neutral: 7-4 (64%)
Vs. AFC: 3-1 (75%)
Vs. NFC: 8-8 (50%)
As favorite: 2-6 (25%)
As underdog: 8-3 (73%)
Off SU win: 5-6 (45%)
Off SU loss: 3-1 (75%)
San Francisco
Head coach: Kyle Shanahan (since 2017)
Quarterback rotation: Trey Lance, Nate Sudfeld, Brock Purdy
Steve’s preseason power rating: 20.5 (T3rd)
Preseason record since 2016: 10-8-1 SU and 9-9-1 ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 9-10
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 2-1-1 SU and 2-2 ATS (Chip Kelly)
2017: 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS (Kyle Shanahan)
2018: 1-3 SU and 0-3 ATS (Kyle Shanahan)
2019: 3-1 SU and ATS (Kyle Shanahan)
2021: 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS (Kyle Shanahan)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 3-7 (30%)
Road/neutral: 6-2 (75%)
Vs. AFC: 7-7 (50%)
Vs. NFC: 2-2 (50%)
As favorite: 4-8 (33%)
As underdog: 4-0 (100%)
Off SU win: 3-3 (50%)
Off SU loss: 3-3 (50%)
Seattle
Head coach: Pete Carroll (since 2010)
Quarterback rotation: Drew Lock, Geno Smith, Jacob Eason
Steve’s preseason power rating: 19 (T16th)
Preseason record since 2016: 11-8 SU and ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 6-13
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 3-1 SU and ATS (Pete Carroll)
2017: 4-0 SU and ATS (Pete Carroll)
2018: 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS (Pete Carroll)
2019: 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS (Pete Carroll)
2021: 1-2 SU and ATS (Pete Carroll)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 5-5 (50%)
Road/neutral: 6-3 (67%)
Vs. AFC: 8-6 (57%)
Vs. NFC: 3-2 (60%)
As favorite: 6-4 (60%)
As underdog: 5-4 (56%)
Off SU win: 4-3 (57%)
Off SU loss: 4-3 (57%)
Tampa Bay
Head coach: Todd Bowles (1st season)
Quarterback rotation: Tom Brady, Blaine Gabbert, Kyle Trask, Ryan Griffin
Steve’s preseason power rating: 19.5 (T11th)
Preseason record since 2016: 9-10 SU and ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 8-10-1
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 2-2 SU and ATS (Dirk Koetter)
2017: 1-3 SU and ATS (Dirk Koetter)
2018: 2-2 SU and ATS (Dirk Koetter)
2019: 3-1 SU and ATS (Bruce Arians)
2021: 1-2 SU and ATS (Bruce Arians)
Situational records ATS since 2016 …
Home: 2-8 (20%)
Road/neutral: 7-2 (78%)
Vs. AFC: 8-6 (57%)
Vs. NFC: 1-4 (20%)
As favorite: 3-7 (30%)
As underdog: 6-2 (75%)
Off SU win: 4-3 (57%)
Off SU loss: 3-4 (43%)
Tennessee
Head coach: Mike Vrabel (since 2018)
Quarterback rotation: Ryan Tannehill, Malik Willis, Logan Woodside
Steve’s preseason power rating: 19 (T16th)
Preseason record since 2016: 8-11 SU and 8-10-1 ATS
Preseason totals record since 2016 (O-U): 7-9-3
Record by season (coach) since 2016 …
2016: 3-1 SU and ATS (Mike Mularkey)
2017: 1-3 SU and ATS (Mike Mularkey)