NFL Week 8 concludes with the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football at 8:15pm ET on ESPN and our NFL expert Clevta has a best bet and predictions for the game.
Clevta’s Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns best bet: Browns +3.5 (-1115)
I was ready to pull the trigger on Browns +3.5 even before the Ja'mar Chase news. Denzel Ward is out but it's not as big a worry since Chase is out. Greg Newsome is fine handling Tee Higgins and the Browns can throw rookie Martin Emerson outside as well or they can swap. Emerson has been excellent, ranking 16th'among NFL CBs in PFF coverage grade. If I could trade Ward being out for Chase I would make that swap all day. I have Chase only behind Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams in terms of value to a team's spread.
The Browns should be able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball which should keep them in this game. They run on pretty much everybody so the Bengals run defense that ranks 16th'in success rate and 23rd'in EPA is not an exception. The Bengals clearly miss DT DJ Reader, who is their best run stuffer. He is out again and since he went down in week 3, the Bengals have allowed opponents to rush for 5.08 ypc. That includes Alvin Kamara's 19 for 99 yards, the best RB they have faced in that stretch. They did face the Ravens but they don't have a RB attack like the Browns. Nick Chubb has feasted on this Bengals defense the last three matchups, rushing for 319 yards on 45 attempts (7.1 ypc) and four rushing TDs.
The Browns defense has been able to slow down this Bengals offense as well, under Joe Burrow. He posted his 4th'worst game of last season against this Browns team, by EPA, and has never won a start against them. The Bengals will surely move the football but without Chase but it won't be a cake walk. To start the season, the Bengals OL was killing Burrow and frankly Burrow was killing Burrow by holding onto the ball too long. After taking 13 sacks in the first two games he has only been sacked a total of 11 times in the last five. But look at the pass rushing defenses he has faced lately. The Ravens, Dolphins, Saints and Falcons all rank in the bottom seven of the NFL in pressure rate. The Browns aren't a ton better than those teams but none of those teams possess a 1-2 edge rush tandem like Myles Garrett and Jadaveon Clowney. Those defenses have one player (Jalean Philips) ranked in the top 40 among edge rushers in pressure rate. Garrett is 6th'in the NFL in pressu re % and #1 in PFF pass rush grade.