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With two weeks of the NFL season done and dusted, we should start to see several teams' true colors show as they separate themselves into contenders and pretenders.
That's the focus of all of our NFL Week 3 predictions, as Week 3 has historically been a big milestone week in terms of a team's chances of making the playoffs.
Six teams have made the playoffs after an 0-3 start (and just one since 1998) in the Super Bowl era, which dates back to 1966. Overall, 247 teams have started 0-3, and 98% of those teams have missed the playoffs.
Among the nine 0-2 teams entering the week, the two that had the highest preseason expectations were the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals, so it is no surprise to see both teams favored in their Week 3 matchups.
Our NFL predictions and best bets for Week 3 instead focus on a 2-0 team we expect to stay hot, while backing the Overs on two player props for an NFC West quarterback and AFC South wide receiver.
Best NFL bets for Week 3
NFL odds as of Friday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Tank Dell Over 3.5 receptions (-105 via BetMGM) vs. Vikings ????
- Kyler Murray Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+115 via bet365) vs. Lions ???
- Saints -2.5 (-115 via bet365) vs. Eagles ????
- Chargers-Steelers Under 36 (-110 via Caesars) ????
Week 3 NFL odds & schedule
(Odds via BetMGM)
- New York Giants (+6.5) vs. Cleveland Browns (-6.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
- Green Bay Packers (+2.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (-2.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
- Chicago Bears (+1) vs. Indianapolis Colts (-1), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
- Houston Texans (-2.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (+2.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
- Philadelphia Eagles (+3) vs. New Orleans Saints (-3), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
- Los Angeles Chargers (+1.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
- Denver Broncos (+6.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
- Carolina Panthers (+5.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5), Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET
- Miami Dolphins (+5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (-5), Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET
- Baltimore Ravens (-1) vs. Dallas Cowboys (+1), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
- San Francisco 49ers (-7) vs. Los Angeles Rams (+7), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
- Detroit Lions (-3) vs. Arizona Cardinals (+3), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (-5.5), Monday at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Washington Commanders (+7.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5), Monday at 8:15 p.m. ET
< li>Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (+3.5), Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET
NFL player props for Week 3
NFL picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
With Joe Mixon nursing an injured ankle (he missed the Texans' early week practices), Houston is likely going to have to focus more on its passing attack to move the ball against the Minnesota Vikings.
Minnesota has employed a blitz-heavy defensive scheme thus far, ranking second in blitz percentage (36%), first in sacks off blitzes (five), first in pressures (13), and first in number of blitzes on dropbacks (33).
That figures to limit Nico Collins' big-play ability down the field while also helping Tank Dell's stock in this game. Dell has averaged just 37 receiving yards per game this season, but his 64 routes ran are tied for the second-most on the team, and Minnesota has allowed the fifth-most receptions to wide receivers this season.
Dell's implied probability to haul in four-plus catches is as high as 54.55% based on the -120 odds at some of our other best sports betting sites.
I am making my $10 wager at BetMGM with the hopes of returning $9.52 in profit.
Best odds: -105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 51.22%
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I am aware of the downward trend of passing touchdowns league-wide, as the 69 passing touchdowns we have seen through the first two weeks are 36 fewer than the 105 entering Week 3 in 2022.
However, Kyler Murray seems oblivious to that trend, coming off his fifth career game with three-plus passing touchdowns and no interceptions (and first since 2021). He was also the first Cardinals quarterback since Kurt Warner in 2008 to finish a game with a perfect passer rating.
Murray's stock is rising considering he established a connection with top draft pick Marvin Harrison Jr. last week (Harrison was the first Cardinals rookie with 100-plus receiving yards and two or more receiving touchdowns in a game since Anquan Boldin in 2003).
In addition, his 99.8 QBR in 13-personnel this season leads the NFL by nine points, and he faces a Lions defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season.
There is an 11-cent gap between Caesars' +104 odds and the +115 odds found at bet365, which is where I am making my $10 wager with a potential $21.50 payout.
Best odds: +115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 46.51%
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NFL game predictions for Week 3
The New Orleans Saints are small home underdogs in this matchup, but prior to the Philadelphia Eagles kicking off their Monday Night Football contest in Week 2, FPI made New Orleans a half-point favorite with a 50.6% chance of winning outright.
There is something to be said about Derek Carr playing in two preseason games this year, as the Saints' offense is humming compared to the rest of the league.
New Orleans has scored on its first 15 possessions with Carr under center, including touchdowns on six straight possessions against a Dallas Cowboys defense that held the Cleveland Browns to 54 first-half yards and Deshaun Watson to his lowest career QBR (9.3) in Week 1.
New Orleans is 2-0 for the second straight season, is amid its longest winning streak (four games) since 2020, and its 91 points are the most through the first two games of a season by any team since the 2009 Saints with Drew Brees.
The Saints' plus-62 scoring differential is 27 points better than the next-best in the league, and the fact that this line jumped the fence from Eagles -3 to Saints -2.5 after Philadelphia's MNF performance is completely justified.
The line moved more in New Orleans' favor than I would have expected, but it is still a play at anything less than a field goal (BetMGM is the only one of our best sports betting apps to get to -3). A $10 winning wager would pay out $18.70.
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
This feels like the kind of game that Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh salivates about, a chance to win a 10-6 or 13-10 slugfest. He certainly has a quarterback comfortable playing low-scoring games, as the Under has cashed in 22 of Justin Herbert's 32 regular-season starts.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's formula for starting 2-0 isn't a secret. The Steelers have allowed 10 or fewer points in the first two games of a season for the first time since 2007. In addition, Pittsburgh is one of three 2-0 teams this year that has attempted 43 or fewer passes to this point.
J.K. Dobbins became the first Charger ever to rush for 100-plus yards in each of the first two games of a season, and his 9.9 yards per rush are the third-most ever by a player in a team's first two games since 1933 (min. 25 rushes).
However, the Steelers run defense – which entered the week tied for the fourth-best (76.5 rushing yards per game allowed) – should neutralize L.A.'s biggest offensive strength.
Even though this total has come down from an opening number of 38.5, there is still value at 36, much more so than at BetMGM, where the total is 35. A $10 winning wager at Caesars' -110 odds would return $9.09 in profit.
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
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