We are already a month into the NFL season, with Week 5 games coming up this weekend. What’s special about this set of games? Well, for one, it’s the first time some teams will be playing their pre-bye week games. That’s right, NFL byes officially start next week with Detroit, Houston, Las Vegas and Tennessee being the first group to get the week off. Interestingly, all four of those teams will be playing their pre-bye week games on the road, including the Raiders, who have a Monday nighter. As such, you’ll want to pay special attention to Systems 1 and 4 below regarding MNF pre-bye games.
One of the most important scheduling situations I’ve found involves the weeks before and after teams’ bye weeks. They are important because they affect routines, momentum and player injury availability as well. Historically, some franchises and coaches have been very good at dealing with bye weeks, others not. Furthermore, there are teams that have seen their performance levels vary greatly when going into the bye week as opposed to coming out of it. As such, the various bye week scenarios can make for great wagering opportunities.
With a 17th game on the schedule, like last season, the bye weeks have been pushed later than in previous years. This should serve to enhance the benefit of the bye even more than usual, since typically, the further you are into a season, the more the bye is appreciated by coaches and players. In fact, there are several bye weeks in December this season, going as deep as Week 14. Keep all of this in mind as you analyze each team’s situation.
In this week’s piece, I will address the PRE-BYE WEEK TRENDS and SYSTEMS. There will be a follow-up in two weeks unveiling the POST-BYE WEEK TRENDS and SYSTEMS. Because these bye weeks span over the next two months and the trends will apply at various times throughout that period, I would recommend saving this piece for your NFL handicapping as well as the one in two weeks.
I always like to remind readers why I believe the bye week has such an impact in the NFL. Every April brings excitement when the NFL schedule gets announced. Analysts break down all the big matchups, the quirks for each team and seemingly every little intricacy in the 18-week slate. There are always various situations that can wreak havoc. The NFL is a routine-laden league, and anything that can break that routine for a team can offer opportunities for bettors. Whether it's long stretches of road or home games, games scheduled on days other than Sundays, night games versus Sunday afternoons, etc., these scheduling “landmines” can be used to find betting value if you understand the consequences of such events. However, if there is one scheduling situation that is most influential, it is the BYE WEEK. Each team gets one during their 18-week schedule, and where it is placed and how the teams react in and out of that bye week can often make the difference in one or two wins. That of course can affect whether or not a team makes the playoffs. Clearly, the three-week period involving a team’s bye week (in, off, out) is highly impactful.
This article will cover pre-bye week trends for all 32 teams. Again, note that those involving the Lions, Texans, Raiders and Titans will be in play for this week’s games.
Before we go team-by-team, here are five league-wide pre-bye week systems that you’ll want to take advantage of over the next couple of months.
Play Over the total in Monday night games featuring a team heading into its bye week. (Record: 29-11 since ’09, 72.5%, + 16.9 Units, 42.3% R.O.I., Grade 67)
2022 plays: Oct. 10 LAS VEGAS, Oct. 31 Cleveland, Nov. 7 Baltimore, Dec. 5 New Orleans
Play on any team heading into its bye week when facing a divisional opponent. (Record: 41-17 ATS since ‘13, 70.7%, + 22.3 Units, 38.5% R.O.I., Grade 65)
2022 plays: Oct. 9 HOUSTON, Oct. 10 LAS VEGAS, Oct. 16 Philadelphia, Oct. 30 San Francisco, Oct. 31 Cleveland, Nov. 6 N.Y. Jets, Dec. 4 Chicago/Green Bay, Dec. 4 Washington, Dec. 5 New Orleans
Play on any NFL team heading into its BYE week and facing DENVER. (Record: 18-8 SU and 20-6 ATS since ’01, 76.9%, + 13.4 Units, 51.5% R.O.I., Grade 65)
2022 plays: Nov. 27 Carolina
Play on any ROAD team heading into its BYE week on Monday night. (Record: 21-15 SU and 23-12 ATS since ’96, 65.7%, + 9.7 Units, 27.7% R.O.I., Grade 62)
2022 plays: Oct. 10 LAS VEGAS, Nov. 7 Baltimore, Dec. 5 New Orleans
Play on double-digit favorites heading into their BYE week. (Record: 21-0 SU and 14-7 ATS since ’09, 66.7%, + 6.3 Units, 30% R.O.I., Grade 62)
Potential 2022 plays: Oct. 23 L.A. Chargers?, Oct. 30 Dallas?, Nov. 13 Tampa Bay?, Dec. 4 Green Bay?
ARIZONA: Pre-bye week game: Nov. 27 vs. L.A. Chargers
· Arizona is on a 5-0 SU and ATS streak in pre-bye week games at home
· The Cardinals are on a 4-10 SU and ATS skid in pre-bye week games as underdogs of + 1 to + 4.5
ATLANTA: Pre-bye week game: Dec. 4 vs. Pittsburgh
· Atlanta has gone 2-1 SU and 2-0-1 ATS in its last three pre-bye week games after a 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS skid prior
· The Falcons have gone Over the total in back-to-back pre-bye week games after a 10-3 Under run
BALTIMORE: Pre-bye week game: Nov. 7 at New Orleans
· Baltimore is just 4-6 SU and 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 pre-bye week games
· The Ravens are 3-9 SU and 4-7-1 ATS in their last 12 pre-bye week road games
BUFFALO: Pre-bye week game: Oct. 16 at Kansas City
· Buffalo is on a run of 12-3 Over the total in pre-bye week games
· The Bills lost 34-31 at Tennessee in their 2021 pre-bye game, and are now just a 1-8 SU and 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine pre-bye games vs. non-divisional AFC foes
CAROLINA: Pre-bye week game: Nov. 27 vs. Denver
· The Panthers are on a stretch of 7-2 ATS in pre-bye week games, including 4-0 ATS at home
· Carolina has gone Over the total in seven straight pre-bye week games, scoring 32.1 PPG and allowing 27.6 PPG
CHICAGO: Pre-bye week game: Dec. 4 vs. Green Bay
· Chicago is just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in its last six pre-bye week games as a home underdog
· Versus NFC North rivals, the Bears are on a 4-1 ATS run in their last five pre-bye week games
CINCINNATI: Pre-bye week game: Nov. 6 vs. Carolina
· Cincinnati has gone 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in its last four pre-bye week games vs. NFC foes
· The Bengals are on an 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS surge in pre-bye week home games
CLEVELAND: Pre-bye week game: Oct. 31 vs. Cincinnati
· Cleveland is on a 2-9 SU and ATS slide in pre-bye week games, including 2-6 SU and ATS at home
· The Browns are 6-1 Under the total in their last seven pre-bye week games vs. divisional rivals
DALLAS: Pre-bye week game: Oct. 30 vs. Chicago
· Dallas has won its last three pre-bye week games ATS overall after a 3-8 ATS skid prior
· The Cowboys are just 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four pre-bye games as home favorites
DENVER: Pre-bye week game: Oct. 30 vs. Jacksonville in London
· Denver is 7-3 SU & 6-3-1 ATS in its L10 pre-bye week games overall
· The Broncos are on a 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS pre-bye week run away from home
DETROIT: Pre-bye week game: Oct. 9 at New England
· Detroit is on a 2-14 SU and 4-12 ATS skid in pre-bye week road games
· The Lions are on a 5-0 Over the total surge in pre-bye week games, average combined score 64.6 PPG
GREEN BAY: Pre-bye week game: Dec. 4 at Chicago
· The Packers are 3-0 SU and ATS in pre-bye week games under HC Matt LaFleur
· Green Bay is on a 4-6 SU and 1-9 ATS slide in pre-bye week road games dating back to ’92
HOUSTON: Pre-bye week game: Oct. 9 at Jacksonville
· Houston has lost back-to-back pre-bye week games coming off a 5-0 SU and ATS winning streak prior
· The Texans boast an impressive 8-2 ATS record in pre-bye week games away from home since their inception in ’02
· Houston has gone 5-1-1 Under the total in its last seven pre-bye week games, combined score 36.4 PPG
INDIANAPOLIS: Pre-bye week game: Dec. 4 at Dallas
· Indianapolis is on an 8-1 SU and ATS run in pre-bye week games, including a 31-0 win at Houston last year
· The Colts have gone Over the total in six straight pre-bye week games against NFC foes
JACKSONVILLE: Pre-bye week game: Nov. 13 at Kansas City
· The Jaguars are 8-4 SU and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 pre-bye week true road games
· Jacksonville is 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven pre-bye week games vs. non-divisional AFC foes
KANSAS CITY: Pre-bye week game: Oct. 23 at San Francisco
· HC Andy Reid’s teams are 6-7 SU and 5-7-1 ATS in pre-bye week nonconference games
· The Chiefs have lost four straight pre-bye week road games outright while going 1-2-1 ATS
L.A. CHARGERS: Pre-bye week game: Oct. 23 vs. Seattle
· The Chargers are just 1-7 SU and ATS in their last eight pre-bye week games
· The Chargers have gone 7-2 Under the total in their last nine pre-bye week games
L.A. RAMS: Pre-bye week game: Oct. 16 vs. Carolina
· The Rams have gone Under the total in six of their last seven pre-bye week games
· The Rams are just 2-5 SU and ATS in last seven pre-bye week home games
· Ten of the L12 Rams’ pre-bye week home games went Over the total
LAS VEGAS: Pre-bye week game: Oct. 10 at Kansas City
· The Raiders are on a 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS run in pre-bye week games
· The Raiders are on a 5-1 Over the total run in pre-bye week games
MIAMI: Pre-bye week game: Nov. 13 vs. Cleveland
· Miami has won back-to-back pre-bye week games SU and ATS after a 2-7 ATS skid
· The Dolphins have gone Under the total in four straight pre-bye week games
MINNESOTA: Pre-bye week game: Oct. 16 at Miami
· Minnesota is on a 16-5 Over the total run in pre-bye week games since ’01, games producing 53.0 PPG
· The Vikings are on a 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS run in pre-bye week road games, scoring 29.8 PPG
NEW ENGLAND: Pre-bye week game: Nov. 6 vs. Indianapolis
· New England won at Buffalo last year to snap a three-game SU and ATS pre-bye week losing streak. That followed a streak of winning nine straight outright
· The Patriots are on a run of 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 pre-bye week home games
NEW ORLEANS: Pre-bye week game: Dec. 5 at Tampa Bay