Two weeks ago, I introduced the first of a two-part series analyzing trends and systems surrounding the bye week in the NFL. That piece dealt with the PRE-BYE WEEK data. In this follow-up piece, I will be dealing with the POST-BYE WEEK analysis.
This week presents the first opportunity to wager on teams coming out of their bye week. There were four teams off last week: Detroit, Houston, Las Vegas and Tennessee. You’ll want to look at the team trends for those four in time for this weekend’s games, then hang on to this piece for future reference.
The bye week is always one of the most impactful variables on each team’s schedule for the season. Essentially, the bye week breaks up the routine in the NFL, and professional athletes’ performances can vary greatly when there are breaks in routine. These variances naturally offer great wagering opportunities. Where the bye is placed and how the teams react in and out of that off week can often make the difference of one or two wins. That, of course, can affect whether or not a team makes the playoffs.
Clearly, the three-week period involving a team’s bye week (in, off, out) is huge. Since the NFL moved to a 17-game regular season schedule last year, the bye weeks have generally been pushed back to later in the season, thus making it perhaps even more important. So let’s get to the data, first a group of league-wide systems you’ll want to digest, and second, team-by-team post-bye week trends, along with their scheduled post-bye week game for 2022.
Post-bye week system 1
Play on ROAD FAVORITES coming out of their bye week. (Record: 101-40 SU and 86-53-2 ATS since ’99, 61.9%, + 27.7 Units, 18.3% R.O.I., Grade 65)
2022 potential plays: Nov. 6 L.A. Chargers, Nov. 20 Cincinnati, Nov. 27 Tampa Bay
— vs. nonconference opponents. (Record: 30-12-1 ATS since ’00, 71.4%, + 16.8 Units, 39.1% R.O.I., Grade 70) — Nov. 6 L.A. Chargers, Nov. 27 Tampa Bay?
— vs. divisional opponents. (Record: 31-15 ATS since ’02, 68%, + 14.5 Units, 32% R.O.I., Grade 68) — Nov. 20 Cincinnati
Post-bye week system 2
Play AGAINST home teams coming out of their bye week against nonconference opponents. (Record: 16-6 SU and 16-5-1 ATS since ’15, 76.2%, + 10.5 Units, 47.7% R.O.I., Grade 68)
2022 plays against: Oct. 30 Buffalo, Oct. 30 Philadelphia, Nov. 13 Pittsburgh, Nov. 13 San Francisco, Nov. 13 N.Y. Giants, Nov. 20 Baltimore, Nov. 27 Seattle, Dec. 12 Arizona
Post-bye week system 3
Play AGAINST HOME UNDERDOGS coming out of their bye week. (Record: 32-11 SU and 27-15-1 ATS since ’99, 64.3%, + 10.5 Units, 24.4% R.O.I., Grade 62)
2022 potential plays on: Oct. 30 L.A. Rams, Nov. 13 Pittsburgh, Nov. 27 Jacksonville, Nov. 27 Seattle, Dec. 12 Arizona, Dec. 18 Chicago, Dec. 18 Washington
Post-bye week system 4
Play OVER the total in games involving posted totals of less than 40 with teams coming out of their bye week. (Record: 24-12-1 since ’10, 66.7%, + 10.8 Units, 29.2% R.O.I., Grade 62)
2022 potential plays: Nov. 13 DEN/TEN, Nov. 13 NYG/HOU, Nov. 27 MIA/HOU, Dec. 18 CHI/PHI, Dec. 18 WAS/NYG
Post-bye week system 5
Play AGAINST DOUBLE-DIGIT FAVORITES coming off their bye week. (Record: 14-5-1 ATS since ’14, 73.7%, + 8.5 Units, 42.5% R.O.I., Grade 62)
2022 potential plays against: Oct. 30 Philadelphia, Nov. 6 Kansas City, Nov. 20 Baltimore
Post-bye week system 6
Play on TEAMS coming off their bye week and FACING THE CHARGERS. (Record: 11-2 SU and 13-0 ATS since ’08, 100%, + 13 Units, 100% R.O.I., Grade 75)
2022 play: Nov. 13 San Francisco
Post-bye week system 7
Play AGAINST TEAMS coming off their bye week in a Monday night divisional game. (Record: 28-14 SU and 26-15-1 ATS since ’92, 63.4%, + 9.5 Units, 22.6% R.O.I., Grade 62)
2022 play against: Dec. 18 Atlanta
Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.
· Arizona has gone 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS in its last five post-bye week games
· The Cardinals are on a 1-4 SU and ATS skid in post-bye week games vs. AFC foes
· Atlanta is on a 13-5 SU and 12-6 ATS run in its last 18 post-bye week games
· The Falcons are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight post-bye week road games but did lose at New Orleans in 2020
· Baltimore has gone OVER the total in its last four post-bye week games
· The Ravens are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their previous six post-bye week games vs. NFC foes
· Buffalo is on a 7-0 SU and 5-1-1 ATS run in post-bye week games, and is 19-9-2 ATS dating to ’93
· The Bills have gone 12-7 UNDER the total in home post bye-week games since ‘96
· Carolina has gone just 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS ATS in its last 11 post-bye week games, including the last three losses in a row
· The last eight Panthers’ post-bye week games went OVER the total
· Chicago has lost its last eight post-bye week games SU and ATS, outscored by 13.8 PPG
· The Bears have lost their last three post-bye week games as a home underdog, both SU and ATS
· The Bengals snapped a five-game post-bye week losing streak last year by beating Las Vegas 32-13
· Cincinnati has gone OVER in six of its last eight post-bye week games versus AFC North rivals
· Cleveland is 3-4 SU and 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 post-bye week games
· The Browns are 9-3 OVER the total in their last 12 road post-bye week games
· Dallas is on a 12-5 SU and 13-4 ATS run in post-bye week games, including three straight wins
· The Cowboys are 14-3 OVER the total in post-bye week games since ’05 but did go UNDER last year
· Denver has gone 17-6 SU and 18-5 ATS in post-bye week games since ‘00
· The Broncos are on an 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS surge in post-bye week road games
· Detroit is 7-2-1 SU and 9-1 ATS in post-bye week games since 2012!
· The Lions have gone 14-4 UNDER the total in post-bye week games since ‘04, allowing just 19.9 PPG
· Green Bay is just 11-1 SU and 6-5-1 ATS in last 12 post-bye week home games
· The Packers are 5-0 UNDER the total in their last five post-bye week games vs. non-divisional NFC foes
· Houston has gone 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS in its last 11 post-bye week games
· The Texans are 5-0 UNDER the total in their last five post-bye week games vs. non-divisional AFC foes
· Indianapolis has gone 14-3 SU and 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 post-bye week games overall
· The Colts are on a seven games SU post-bye week road winning streak, having gone 6-1 ATS
· Jacksonville is on an 8-4 ATS post-bye week run at home, including three straight ATS wins
· The Jaguars have lost four straight post-bye week games while going 1-2-1 ATS
· Head Coach Andy Reid’s teams are 21-3 SU and 16-8 ATS in post-bye week games
· The Chiefs have played just four post-bye week games vs. non-divisional AFC foes since ’07, going 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS
· The Chargers have gone OVER the total in their last three post-bye week games
· The Chargers are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four post-bye week games as road favorites