Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Many watched in horror and confusion as Chargers coach Brandon Staley left his starters out there well into the second half of a meaningless Week 18 game against the Broncos. Mike Williams and Joey Bosa left that game nicked up in advance of a wild-card matchup against the Jaguars, but it could have been a lot worse.
Jacksonville rides a five-game winning streak into this one with two wins over the Titans, an overtime win over the Cowboys and wins over the Jets and Texans, so they’re certainly stepping up in class against the 10-win Chargers. Injuries plagued the Chargers all year long, so bettors have to figure out if the current, mostly healthy, version of Los Angeles is good enough to go on the road and beat a Jaguars team that has quietly been a top-10 team most of the season by the advanced metrics.
The Jaguars rank eighth in EPA per play for the season and really took off when Travis Etienne replaced James Robinson as the feature back. Trevor Lawrence had a strong finish to the season with a 15-2 TD-INT ratio over his last nine starts. For the entire body of work, Jacksonville’s defense was also better in the EPA per play department than the Chargers, though L.A. did play in a far stronger division and had to face the Chiefs twice.
The Chargers were outgained on a per-play basis for the season, while the Jaguars were not. The Chargers also beat only one playoff team (Dolphins) during the regular season, so when they played comparable or better opponents, they failed to look the part. The Jaguars at least beat the Chargers, Ravens and Cowboys but also had some uglier losses.