The NFL Playoffs have arrived! The Super Wild Card Weekend action kicks off with a pair of games on Saturday and concludes on Monday night with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hosting the Philadelphia Eagles. We've consulted our model to break down each matchup and are delivering you our analytics-driven predictions for all six matchups.
Powered by Dimers' industry standard predictive analytics models, we're always looking for the best value in a wager. Whether in NFL best bets, the top NFL player props to bet on or in futures odds, there's always an edge to be found.
You can find our model's outright winner prediction for each NFL game here, but in this article, we're going to include spread and totals for each game as well.
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NFL Wild Card Round Bracket
On Bye: Ravens and 49ers
Saturday, January 13
- (5) Browns at (4) Texans: 4:30PM ET
- (6) Dolphins at (3) Chiefs: 8:00PM ET
Sunday, January 14
- (7) Steelers at (2) Bills: 1:00PM ET
- (7) Packers at (2) Cowboys: 4:30PM ET
- (6) Rams at (3) Lions: 8:00PM ET
Monday, January 15
- (5) Eagles at (4) Buccaneers: 8:00PM ET
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AFC
DimersBOT Super Bowl Probability: 12.4%
Best Super Bowl Odds: +650 on FanDuel
The Bills are set to embark on their fifth consecutive playoff journey, kicking off this postseason with a home clash against the Steelers on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. Buffalo looked like they would miss the playoffs as recently as Week 14, but turned it up down th e stretch and capitalized on the reeling Miami Dolphins to capture the AFC East crown yet again.
Notably, the Bills and Steelers didn't cross paths during the regular season and their last playoff encounter traces back to the 1995 divisional round, where the Steelers emerged victorious. As fate would have it, this marks the fourth postseason rendezvous between them, with the Steelers maintaining a 2-1 upper hand in previous matchups.
DimersBOT projects the Bills with a commanding 87% probability to win outright and thinks this game could clear its fairly low total of 35.5 with a 53% probability.
DimersBOT Super Bowl Probability: 1.1%
Best Super Bowl Odds: +13000 on FanDuel
Life finds a way, at least for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Needing an assist from either Jacksonville or Buffalo on Sunday, Pittsburgh got what they needed with a Jags loss. They once again find themselves in the postseason spotlight, eager to overturn a victory drought that dates back to 2016, as they gear up for a face-off against the Bills on Sunday at 1PM.
Quarterback Mason Rudolph has emerged as a key catalyst in the Steelers' resurgence, especially during the final three weeks of the season. His renewed confidence in launching deep passes not only breathed life into the offense but also paved the way for a more dynamic offense. Najee Harris has benefitted out of the backfield from this new balance and the Steelers' offense achieved the remarkable feat of scoring over 30 points in consecutive games during Weeks 16-17, something they've not done in three years.
As mentioned, the Bills are overwhelmingly favored (-520) but our model does think the Steelers have a shot at covering the ten-point spread. Currently, you can get the Steelers at -110 on BetMGM, where their 53% probability presents a fair price, though without any true value to be had.
DimersBOT Super Bowl Probability: 8.8%
Best Super Bowl Odds: +1000 on DraftKings
In the upcoming wild-card round, the Chiefs are set to host the Dolphins on Saturday night at 8PM ET, airing exclusively on Peacock. The teams last clashed in Week 9, with Kansas City securing a 21-14 victory in Frankfurt, Germany. This marks the Chiefs' impressive 14th consecutive home playoff game since 2016. These teams last met in the playoffs in the 1994 wild-card round, a game the Dolphins won 27-17.
One key factor instilling confidence in the Chiefs is their robust defense, ranking as the second-best in the league with an average of 17.1 points surrendered per game. This defensive prowess has consistently kept the Chiefs competitive and provides a strong foundation for success. Despite sputtering offensively at times, the Chiefs enter the wild-card round with upside and a defensive formula for securing victories.
The Chiefs are favored at -186 on the moneyline at their current best price and get a 59% probability to come away with the win. The total is set at 44, with our model currently projecting a coin flip in that market.
DimersBOT Super Bowl Probability: 5.1%
Best Super Bowl Odds: +1600 on FanDuel
The Dolphins are making consecutive playoff appearances, but seek their first postseason win since the 2000 season. In their Week 9 encounter in Frankfurt, Germany, the Dolphins mounted a comeback but ultimately succumbed to the Chiefs, trailing 21-0 early and losing 21-14. Historically, Miami holds a 3-0 playoff record against Kansas City.
The Dolphins draw hope from their potent offense, boasting top-tier playmakers even at 80% strength. The dynamic performance of RB De'Von Achane and the explosiveness of key players like Tyreek Hill provide Miami with the ability to score at any time, especially when allowed to set the game's tempo. Health will be absolutely critical to this team, who've already taken hits to their defense with key injuries to Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb. The statuses of Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert are also up in the air as of right now.
Those injuries play a big role in the Dolphins being underdogs in this game, despite being the superior team on paper this season. Arrowhead Stadium is a difficult place t play, especially in January and DimerBOT gives Miami a 41% probability to win. However, that does come with value, as their +165 odds on BetMGM imply just a 38% chance. They're also a great value to cover the 3.5-point spread at a 59% probability, good for an 8.4% edge.
DimersBOT Super Bowl Probability: 0.8%
Best Super Bowl Odds: +4500 on FanDuel
The Texans are gearing up to host the Browns on Saturday at 4:30PM ET, marking the first playoff encounter between the two teams and Houston's first playoff game since 2019. In their Week 16 clash, also at NRG Stadium, the Texans faced a setback against the Browns, losing 36-22, with quarterback C.J. Stroud sidelined due to a concussion. Notably, the Texans allowed Browns quarterback Joe Flacco to amass 368 passing yards in that game.
Despite challenges, the Texans draw hope from their ability to triumph over mid-range teams and contenders when performing at their best. Victories against the Jaguars, Buccaneers, and Bengals, including the latter during their four-game winning streak, showcase the team's potential. With Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite C.J. Stroud leading the charge, Houston carries a belief that they can emerge victorious against any opponent, emphasizing their resilience and determination as they enter the playoff matchup against the Browns.
Unfortunately, the DimersBOT feels much different. Despite being one of the closer matchups on the moneyline with Houston as +124 underdogs, our model gives them just a 38% probability to pull out the win. Additionally, a 44% probability to cover the 2.5-point spread presents no value there either.
DimersBOT Super Bowl Probability: 1.7%
Best Super Bowl Odds: +3500 on FanDuel
The Browns are set for their first playoff appearance in three seasons when they face the Texans. As mentioned, Cleveland dominated Houston in their Week 16 meeting, propelled by wide receiver Amari Cooper's stellar performance with 11 receptions for a franchise-record 265 yards and two touchdowns.
The Browns carry a strong sense of optimism into the postseason, primarily due to their formidable defense, widely regarded as one of the NFL's best. Spearheaded by pass-rusher and Defensive Player of the Year favorite Myles Garrett, and lockdown cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Martin Emerson Jr., Cleveland's defense has consistently stifled opponents in the passing game. This defensive prowess positions the Browns as a formidable force, capable of posing significant challenges to any team they might face.
The odds are a little juicy, but at -145 on the moneyline, you're still getting value in the Browns as favorites, with a 3% edge against their 63% probability. You'll find the same edge on the 2.5-point spread at -115 and a 56% probability, so backing the Browns for their first playoff win since 2020 looks like the play.
NFC
DimersBOT Super Bowl Probability: 11.7%
Best Super Bowl Odds: +750 on FanDuel
The Cowboys are poised for their third consecutive playoff appearance, this time against the Packers on Sunday at 4:30PM ET. Although the teams did not face each other this season, this matchup marks the ninth time they've crossed paths in the playoffs, with the series standing at a 4-4 tie. Something's gotta give on Sunday. Notably, Dallas has dropped the last two encounters, including a heartbreaking 34-31 walk-off loss to the Packers at home in the 2016 divisional round, and the fabled “Dez caught it” game in the 2014 postseason.
Seeking to break a 27-year Super Bowl drought, the team looks to capitalize on the exceptional performance of QB Dak Prescott, the unstoppable force of receiver CeeDee Lamb who's coming off a franchise record-setting season, and a defense capable of shutting down opponents with a potent pass rush and a knack for forcing turnovers.
Dallas is one of the heavier favorites of the weekend at – 350 odds on BetMGM and get a 72% probability to win according to our model. However, they get just a 44% probability to cover the 7.5-point spread according to DimersBOT, so the value isn't there on this side.