Jon Metler and Neil Parker, betting analysts at Sportsbook Review, have made their top NFL player prop picks for Week 6. Using NFL odds from our best NFL prop betting sites, they intend to improve on their impressive 10-3 record from the past three weeks and extend the winning streak.
Neil Parker predicted that in Week 5 Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals would explode, and boy, was he right. Burrow went way over his total of 251.5 passing yards, throwing for 317 yards while earning us a green checkmark.
Our NFL player props record over the past three weeks is 10-3, and we're up +6.75 units.
Let's keep the good times rolling as we kicked things off with a Thursday Night Football player prop on Jerick McKinnon going over 12.5 receiving yards, and he delivered with our first green checkmark of the week.
Can Gardner Minshew and K.J. Osborn make it a sweep?
Here are our best NFL player props for Week 6 (odds via our
best NFL betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL player props for Week 6
- K.J. Osborn Over 3.5 receptions (-105 via BetMGM) ????
- Gardner Minshew Under 230.5 passing yards (-109 via Caesars) ???
- Derek Carr Over 215.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ??
- Jerick McKinnon Over 12.5 receiving yards (-112 via BetRivers) ??? ?
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NFL player props for Week 6: Sunday
Justin Jefferson has been placed on injured reserve by the Minnesota Vikings due to a hamstring injury. When it comes to football player props, especially after a big injury to a star player, we like to target backups who should see a bigger role, but we also make certain assumptions. With Osborn, I don't think you're assuming much, which is why I like this prop, aside from the edge in the numbers. Even with Jefferson in the lineup, Osborn has always had a role within the Vikings' offense and chemistry with QB Kirk Cousins.
In terms of the betting numbers, I see an edge in the Over for both Osborn's receiving yards and receptions prop. I've decided to go after Osborn's receptions instead because there is a chance of rain and wind in Chicago on Sunday. Osborn isn't a deep route runner; he has had no deep targets this season. If the weather isn't ideal for passing, the Vikings will likely target those intermediate routes.
Osborn is projected to have 4.1 receptions against the Bears on Sunday, which means we can price the Over 3.5 receptions at -143. However, it is available at BetMGM at -105. This means this wager is showing an expected value of just under 15%, earning it a four-star rating.
The best price for this prop is available at BetMGM, but if the -105 on the Over 3.5 receptions disappears there, DraftKings is also offering the Over 3.5 receptions at -105.
Pick made by Jon Metler (SBR | Twitter/X)
Minshew is receiving a lot of attention on the Over for his passing yards prop, with the total jumping from 220.5 on the opener to 230.5. I'm sure there's no shortage of people looking to play the revenge angle here with Minshew, as he used to be the Jaguars' starting quarterback, but I& #39;m going full fun police mode here. At 220.5, I wouldn't touch it, but give me the extra 10 yards up to 230.5, and I think we should assist our best sportsbooks a bit and give them what they want: an Under bet.
While Minshew will be motivated to put on a performance against his former team, are you telling me there's nobody in that building who knows how to completely disrupt Minshew's game? Scouting a backup quarterback isn't easy, but I'm sure the Jaguars have an in-depth game plan for Minshew.
In his rookie season when he started 12 games for the Jaguars and was very efficient, Minshew averaged a modest 233.6 passing yards per game. Additionally, the Indianapolis Colts recently paid Jonathan Taylor $42 million and are working him back into the lineup. With Zack Moss rushing for 165 yards last week and Taylor back in action, the Colts won't shy away from the run game.
Minshew is projected to have 228.5 passing yards against the Jaguars, which means we can price the Under 230.5 at -130, but it is available at Caesars at -109. You can see how the jump from 220.5 to 230.5 completely changes our perception of this bet because, with a projection of 228.5, we wouldn't have an edge on the Under 220.5.
Pick made by Jon Metler (SBR | Twitter/X)
This prop has had my attention the past two days because I have Carr projected for 230.8 passing yards, and the Pinnacle price for the Over 215.5 is -141.
I'd price this Over at -147 based on my projection, which is also in line with the Pinnacle number. However, most of our best sportsbooks are charging a far lower vig, with the -110 bet365 odds the most favorable.
We're landing a notable edge with the bet365 price. It checks out as a positive expected value of 14% based on my numbers, and 12% compared to the -141 odds through Pinnacle.
Pick made by Neil Parker (SBR | Twitter/X)
NFL player props for Week 6: Thursday
I have absolutely no problem hitting the button whenever I see value on the Over for a McKinnon receiving yards prop. Why? Because McKinnon is one of the NFL's best pass-protecting running backs, so you know he's going to see the field in passing situations.
McKinnon's role within the Chiefs' offense is clearly defined. It's just about finding an edge in the betting numbers, and that's what we're getting in Week 6 ahead of Thursday Night Football.
I think McKinnon is undervalued in the market because the 10.5-point spread for the Chiefs gives the impression they should be operating from a positive game script, with more rushing than passing. While that's probably true, it's also been acc ounted for in the line, as McKinnon usually gets a receiving yards total of 15.5.
But we found a 12.5 at BetRivers for this matchup with the Denver Broncos. An adjustment relative to the spread, yes, but I believe it's been overadjusted.
McKinnon is projected to produce 18.4 receiving yards against the Broncos. That allows us to price the Over on 12.5 receiving yards at -130, yet BetRivers is offering it at -112. That means this bet is showing a positive expected value of just over 7%.
Price shopping is a key factor for this bet, and you'll want to attack this number at BetRivers to maximize your edge. Not all of our best NFL betting sites are trading McKinnon at a total of 12.5 receiving yards. For example, FanDuel has set its total at 14.5 (-113), and we wouldn't be getting an edge on that line based on our projection.
Pick made by Jon Metler (SBR |&nbs p;Twitter/X)
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