NFL Player Props Week 5: Predictions, Picks for Thursday

Sportsbook Review's betting analyst Jon Metler has made his top NFL player prop selections for Week 5, relying on NFL odds from our best NFL prop betting sites. Following an impressive 7-1 record in the previous two weeks, he is determined to continue his winning streak with his picks.

The NFL player props article has been hot the last two weeks, as we have won seven of our last eight bets, with the only loser being an Over bet on Jaylen Waddle's receiving yards against the Buffalo Bills. We missed the memo that it was Stefon Diggs who we should've been targeting in that AFC East rivalry game instead of Waddle.

That's enough about the player who lost us a unit in Week 4; let's give a shoutout to the players who earned us a green checkmark. We hit on our player props for Justin Jefferson, Kenneth Walker, and Romeo Doubs, earning us +1.95 units on the week.

On Monday Night Football, Walker surpassed his rushing yards total for the Seattle Seahawks, a bet we had been focusing on. As we begin Week 5, we're starting with another Over bet on a running back's rushing yards total for Thursday Night Football.

Here are our best NFL player props for Week 5 (odds via our
best NFL betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL player props for Week 5

• Brian Robinson Jr. Over 63.5 rushing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ???

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NFL player props for Week 5: Thursday

After witnessing the Chicago Bears blow a 28-7 lead to the Denver Broncos and their head coach's decision not to kick the field goal for the lead, one might begin to wonder about the effort we can expect from them on Thursday Night Football, especially given their short week and upcoming trip to Washington. But this is the NFL, where everyone is fighting for a job, not to mention that it's impossible to handicap human emotion.

What we do know about the Commanders is that they should be operating from a positive game script here, as they are 6-point favorites against the Bears. In the two games that the Commanders have won, Robinson has averaged 18.5 rushing attempts per game, and in the two that they lost, he has only averaged 12 rushing attempts per game. This has been accounted for, as Robinson's rushing yards total usually trades in the mid-50s, but has it been increased enough? The projections don't seem to think so.

Robinson is projected to rush for 72.8 yards against the Bears, which means we can price the Over 63.5 rushing yards at -130. Yet, it is available at BetMGM at -110. This means this bet is showing a positive expected value of 8%.

Make sure you take advantage of this price at BetMGM; DraftKings has the same total of 63.5, but the juice increased to -120, which seems insignificant, but it actually slashes your expected value in half. You would be better off going after the total of 64.5 rushing yards at bet365 because the Over is trading at -110 there, and based on our projection, that total would have an expected value of 5%.

Pick made by Jon Metler (SBR | Twitter/X)

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