Sportsbook Review's betting analyst, Jon Metler, has made his top NFL player prop selections for Week 4, relying on NFL odds from our best NFL prop betting sites. Following a flawless 4-0 record in Week 3, he is determined to maintain his winning streak.
After a mediocre Week 2 for our NFL player props, we made a strong comeback in Week 3, sweeping the board with a perfect 4-0 record. That solid run has continued so far in Week 4, as we're 2-1 so far heading into Monday Night Football.
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs exceeded his reception total of 3.5 on Thursday, making nine catches against the Lions on 13 targets, and our plus-money wager paid off. Meanwhile, our Under hit on Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings when he fell short of his total while finishing with 86 receiving yards, though he did score twice. However, Jaylon Waddle didn't cash his yardage O ver for us on his receiving yards, narrowly missing while ending up with 46 yards.
Now we're turning to a Seattle Seahawks running back to round out our NFL predictions for Week 4.
Here are our best NFL player props for Week 4 (odds via our
best NFL betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL player props for Week 4
- Kenneth Walker Over 64.5 rushing yards (-110 via FanDuel) ???
- Jaylen Waddle Over 59.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ???? ??
- Justin Jefferson Under 102.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ??? ?
- Romeo Doubs Over 3.5 receptions (+116 via FanDuel) ??? ?
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NFL player props for Week 4: Monday
The spread for this Monday Night Football game between the Seattle Seahawks and New York Giants has moved through zero multiple times, making either the Giants a 1-point favorite or the Seahawks a 2-point favorite. The most recent shift was to Seahawks -2, and it's one I agree with, which is why I'm syncing this prop pick with what I think will happen in this game. I expect the Seahawks to be working from a positive game script, and for Walker to get the opportunity to showcase what he can do on the ground.
That view doesn't necessarily mean the odds will align with my opinion to create a favorable price point for us to buy into. But in this case with Walker, we're seeing an edge with the number thanks to a slightly rogue price through FanDuel.
Walker is projected to rush for 72.7 yards against the Giants, which all ows us to price the Over on 64.5 rushing yards at -120. However, it's available for -110 at FanDuel. The edge is small, as we're getting only a positive expected value of 4%, but the price is even more fragile than it appears.
The Seattle tailback is trading with a total of 66.5 at most of our other best sports betting sites, with the Over priced at -110 or juiced even higher. But if you were to play the Over 66.5, that bet would actually be showing a negative expected value of roughly 2%. That two yards of difference between FanDuel's price and everywhere else may seem insignificant, but it represents your entire edge with Walker on Monday Night Football.
NFL player props for Week 4: Sunday
The Bills' defense will have their hands full in Week 4 because Jaylen Waddle, who missed last week's game against the Denver Broncos, will be back in uniform after clearing con cussion protocol. The Dolphins dropping 70 points on the Broncos in Week 3 is even more mind-blowing when you realize the Broncos didn't even have to gameplan for Waddle. Imagine what the Bills' defense is up against this week.
In their meetings last season, the Bills allowed Tyreek Hill to see a lot of targets, but everything was underneath; there was an emphasis on not getting burned for chunk plays by Hill. With the Dolphins, it's a pick-your-poison situation, and for that reason, it was Waddle who burned the Bills multiple times last season with big plays.
That's why I'm focusing on Waddle's receiving yards total here instead of his receptions. At 59.5, there's a chance this goes Over on one throw to Waddle.
Waddle is projected to record 74.9 receiving yards against the Bills, so on top of what we have seen from the Bills in the past, we also have a nice edge in the numbers, which is the most important factor here. With this projection, we can price Waddle at -143 to go over the total of 59.5 receiving yards, yet it's available at bet365 for -110.
Justin Jefferson is going to wind up being one of the best wide receivers of our lifetime, don't get me wrong. By betting on the Under, we're not saying he isn't an elite talent, but it's a bet against the number, and 102.5 receiving yards for a total is a massive number.
Jefferson has gone Over his receiving yards total in each of the first three weeks, causing his total to climb from 90.5 to 95.5, to 100.5, and now in Week 4, it's trading at 102.5. At 102.5, I think we have to consider the Under here because of the projections, but there's also another angle at play.
This past offseason, Adam Thielen, who was with the Vikings for nine seasons, left via free agency to join the Carolina Panthers, the Vikings' ; Week 4 opponent. As someone who watched film and worked out side by side with Jefferson for the past couple of seasons, I'm sure Thielen has some tips for his defensive coordinator and defensive backs on the Panthers on how to potentially slow down Jefferson. Completely shutting him down probably isn't possible, but affecting him enough to keep him under this high total of 102.5, you'd have to think so.
Aside from that angle with Thielen, we also have the projections and numbers on our side for this bet. Jefferson is projected to record 99.8 receiving yards against the Panthers, which means we can price the Under 102.5 receiving yards at -137.
Make sure to do your shopping on this prop at FanDuel to maximize your edge. Most of our other best sports betting sites have Jefferson's total trading at 99.5, and while it looks like a small difference, with the projection sitting at 99.8, it would drop your e xpected value on this wager by more than 6% depending on the juice, which is substantial.
NFL player props for Week 4: Thursday
I know what you're thinking: Christian Watson is expected to be back for the Green Bay Packers in this matchup against the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football, so shouldn't we be fading Doubs? Nope, as I believe Watson's presence is opening the door for us to get a slight edge on Doubs' receptions Over.
There are two ways of looking at it: Watson might eat into Doubs' target share, or he's such a threat to stretch the defense that Doubs will enjoy an easier time accumulating receptions on his routes and getting open.
For me, Doubs remains a primary weapon in the Packers' passing attack, with or without Watson. You can see that with the 12 targets he registered in Week 3 against the New Orleans Saints. A pass-catcher doesn't get 12 targets in an NFL game by accident.
We're not debating whether he could get a reduced role with Watson. We're debating whether playing the Over on 3.5 receptions at +116 is worth a bet with Watson back in the lineup, and the projections indicate the play is a good one.
Doubs is projected to record 3.6 receptions against the Lions, which may not seem impressive considering the total is 3.5, but the juice is in our favor. With this projection, we can price Doubs at +106 to go over the total of 3.5 receptions, yet it's available at FanDuel for +116.
Pick made by Jon Metler (SBR | Twitter/X)
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