We enter the final week of the 2023-24 NFL regular season after a successful run through the first 17 weeks of our NFL player props, and we're looking to end the year strong, starting with Saturday's games while using the best NFL odds from our leading NFL prop betting sites.
Coming off a stellar 7-1 week with nearly 10 units of profit in Week 16, we fell back to Earth with a 2-3 record on our Week 17 NFL player props, which we certainly won't blame on the pomp and circumstance around New Year's weekend. Absolutely not.
Alas, we're shooting for a solid end to the regular season, starting with Saturday's NFL doubleheader featuring the Steelers vs. Ravens and Texans vs. Colts. We like a backup quarterback to show up in a “meaningless” game against a bitter rival, while an especially motivated back could shine in the nightcap between two teams still vying for the AFC South title.
Sunday's schedule features a handful of games between motivated teams looking to punch their ticket into the NFL postseason. However, the player props market is relatively scarce, given the uncertainty surrounding many of these Week 18 games. Check back on this column over the weekend, and we'll update you with our best bets as the market opens up.
In addition to our NFL Week 18 predictions, let's dive in with our best NFL player props for Week 18 (odds via our
best NFL betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL player props for Week 18
- Devin Singletary Over 81.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 via bet365) ????
- Baker Mayfield Under 223.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ????
- Nick Mullens Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-105 via DraftKings) ????
- Tyler Huntley Over 0.5 passing touchdowns (-125 via FanDuel) ???? ?
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NFL player props for Week 18: Saturday
This is one of my best bets of the week for a handful of reasons that go beyond Singletary's recent performance as the Texans' clear RB1.
Sure, the fifth-year rusher is averaging 96.9 yard s since he effectively announced himself as the team's lead back with 150 rushing yards in Week 10. He's reached 80 yards on the ground alone in four of those eight weeks, including last week, and he's added 40-plus yards as a receiver in two of those games.
The main reason I like this bet, though, is the phenomenal matchup. The Colts rank among the five worst teams in both rushing yards and receiving yards allowed to opposing backs, and they've surrendered a combined 151 yards per game to the position entering Week 18.
Additionally, I like Houston to win this game for all the reasons laid out in my Texans vs. Colts prediction ahead of Saturday's game. That's obviously good news for the game script for Singletary, and we've seen that play out this season, as the Texans back is averaging 115 scrimmage yards in his team's five wins since taking over the lead role.
Lastly, Singletary is on the verge of cashing a handful of contract incentives, including one that pays out $250K if he accrues an additional 74 yards from scrimmage. He could potentially cash another for $125K if he rushes for 165 yards, with bet365 offering +1700 odds for him to clear 150 rushing yards on Saturday.
I don't think he'll hit that, nor do I really think the contract incentive alone is a reason to bet this prop. But everything points to another big performance from the Texans back in a game his team can't afford to lose.
This game isn't the easiest to bet given how many starters could be sidelined for the Ravens, who have already locked up the AFC's top seed. In fact, Huntley is the only Baltimore player even offered in the props market at most of our best sports betting sites.
Here's what we do know: Huntley will draw the start in place of NFL MVP favorite Lamar Jackson, and he'll face a Steelers defense that has already allowed 22 passing touchdowns (21st) and could be without starting safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee) on Saturday.
Huntley is no stranger to January football, having started the Ravens' lone playoff game last year with a supporting cast that didn't look terribly different than the lineup Baltimore will be trotting out Saturday. He threw two touchdowns in that game, his third straight start with a touchdown to close the 2022 season.
The fourth-year passer has thrown a touchdown in each of his last two appearances this season, even while attempting just eight passes on 23 snaps in those two blowout wins. The Steelers have also allowed a passing touchdown in 13 of 16 games, including six straight, so this isn't exactly a high bar to clear.
As we mentioned earlier, Huntley is the only player for Saturday's hosts with any prop totals at all, and even this wager is only available at FanDuel. You can probably wait on this one if you want to shop around, but I wouldn't be scared off by this number.
NFL player props for Week 18: Sunday
There's a lot of buzz around Mayfield this week as he tries to lead the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the playoffs in his first year as the starter. That would earn him a healthy $1 million payday, along with a handful of other contract incentives for reaching key passing milestones.
That, along with his strong play as of late, would seemingly have the betting public swarming to the Over on such a low total. So why is his passing yards prop dropping ahead of Sunday's kickoff?
For one, this is a sneaky difficult matchup for Mayfield, who threw for just 202 yards against the Carolina Panthers in Week 13. Incredibly, that was the second-highest total for any quarterback against this defense since Week 6, when Tua Tagovailoa (262 yards) became one of just four QBs all season to eclipse 220 yards against Carolina.
While Mayfield has cleared that mark in 10 of his 16 starts, including each of the last three, he's needed 30-plus attempts to get there in eight of those games. Given the Panthers' issues against the run and the market's confidence in the Bucs, who are trading at -4.5, I wouldn't bank on a favorable game script on Sunday.
I highlighted this bet as part of my Vikings vs. Lions NFL player props in one of the few matchups in Week 18 with any player props listed at all. The price for this particular wager has moved slightly in favor of the Over since we first called it out, but I'd still play it at this number in a juicy matchup for Mullens.
If you can get over Mullens' relative inefficiency as a passer, the math on this one is compelling: the Vikings' fill-in starter has thrown multiple TDs in both starts this year, and he threw one off the bench last week in limited action against the Green Bay Packers.
The Lions, for their part, rank sixth in passing touchdowns allowed (27) and have allowed multiple scores in two straight weeks. I also wouldn't be surprised to see coach Dan Campbell limit his starters in a game with very little at stake for the Detroit Lions.
We've already cashed on a similarly low passing TD prop this week for Huntley, and Mullens faces a better matchup with much less adverse weather conditions. It ain't pretty, but it should be profitable on Sunday.
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