We're feeling good about our Week 17 NFL player props after a blisteringly profitable run in Week 16, and we're looking for another strong start on Thursday Night Football while using the best NFL odds from our leading NFL prop betting sites.
It's hard to do much better than we did with our Week 16 NFL player props when we cashed seven of eight bets for plus-9.78 units, with our only loss coming on a +130 wager during the Saturday game locked behind a Peacock paywall. If nobody saw it happen, did it really lose?
We're looking for a third consecutive week of profits and started 1-0 with the Thursday Night Football showdown between the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns. That continued with an easy hit on Saturday when CeeDee Lamb sauntered to a 92-yard touchdown for the Dallas Cowboys.
Now Sunday's slate is jam-packed with key match ups for playoff positioning, but none are more important than the early game between the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins, with the winner securing the inside track for the AFC's No. 1 seed. If the Ravens win it, the top seed is theirs, though the Dolphins would still need to beat the rival Buffalo Bills in Week 18.
In addition to our NFL Week 17 predictions and Week 17 anytime touchdown scorer predictions, let's dive in with our best NFL player props for Week 17 (odds via our
best NFL betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL player props for Week 17
- Kyren Williams Over 91.5 rushing yards (-113 via FanDuel) ????
- Mason Rudolph to throw an interception (-140 via bet365) ????
- Justin Jefferson Over 79.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ?????
- CeeDee Lamb to score a touchdown (-138 via bet365) ????? ?
- Trevor Siemian Under 30.5 yards longest completion (-115 via bet365) ???? ?
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NFL player props for Week 17: Sunday
The best sportsbooks are in a tough spot when it comes to Williams' rushing props. If shops bump this total too high, wins on U nder bets will be crushing, and that's not in the interest of balancing the book.
So the best sports betting sites continue to offer reasonable rushing yards totals on the second-year star. And he keeps blowing right past the number.
The Rams' top back is averaging 126.5 rushing yards on 5.8 yards per carry over his last six starts, and he's run for 100-plus yards in five of those six games. The lone exception came when the Browns' historic defense held him to 88 yards, just a few yards shy of this prop total.
Now he faces the Giants, who have allowed the third-most rushing yards to opposing backs (113.9 yards per game) and surrendered 170 rushing yards last week. Good luck to New York and sportsbooks alike.
This isn't a cheap price, which may throw you off this bet entirely. But the juice is worth the squeeze on Rudolph making a mistake Sunday.
While his box-score numbers (290 yards, two touchdowns) looked good during his first start of 2023, the Pittsburgh Steelers' fill-in QB ranks in the bottom seven in bad-throw percentage (67.9%) and on-target percentage (21.4%) among 58 QBs with at least 30 attempts. He ranked among the seven worst-qualified QBs in 2019, too, which was his last campaign with multiple starts.
Now he makes his first road start of the season in Seattle, a notoriously tough environment, against a defense with five interceptions in its last six games. Two of those came off Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts during the Seahawks' last home contest in Week 15, which helped keep their tenuous NFL playoff odds alive.
Given that Rudolph might hit his yardage and touchdown Overs totals in garbage time, my favorite way to fade an unreliable QB is this interception prop, which is trading at -145 or shorter at almost all of our best live betting sites . We'll take the slight discount from bet365 on a Rudolph regression.
I get that this number is depressed because the Minnesota Vikings are starting rookie Jaren Hall on Sunday night. That doesn't excuse hanging a number this low.
Jefferson has started and finished six games in 2023, and he's cleared this total in each one after averaging 128 receiving yards in those contests. That would lead the league by a country mile, even with the Vikings' mess under center.
Speaking of which, are we really sure Hall is worse than Nick Mullens, who helped Jefferson reach 141 yards in Week 16? Minnesota's coaching staff certainly doesn't think so, benching the latter for the former in a crucial spot even with the more experienced Mullens and Joshua Dobbs both available.
Hall's most significant strength is his cannon arm and ability to extend plays with his legs, and Jefferson i s the quintessential deep target for the rookie passer. He ranks in the top 10 in yards per target (10.8) and yards before catch before reception (16.0).
This feels like a unique opportunity to act on the market fear around Hall and grab a misaligned total on Jefferson, especially against a struggling Packers pass defense missing All-Pro corner Jaire Alexander (suspended). Sign me up for that.
NFL player props for Week 17: Saturday Night Football
Lamb has been a touchdown machine this year, as he's scored in seven straight games and ranks third among all receivers in total touchdowns (11). And the Lions don't have a great answer for him this week, either.
Entering Week 17, Detroit's ranks in the bottom 10 in most passing metrics, with much of the blame falling to the team's woeful secondary. That group has allowed a whopping 18 touchdowns to opposing wideouts, the fourth-mos t by any team this season.
Jerry Jacobs, one of the team's top two corners, missed last week with a hamstring injury and has been picked on mercilessly when he plays. So has opposite corner Cameron Sutton, who was burned for 83 yards and a touchdown last week.
Rookie Brian Branch has been the Lions' primary slot defender, and he's made his fair share of highlight plays. But he's also allowed five touchdowns on 57 targets, tied for the 12th-most by any corner this season.
None of them are a fair match for Lamb, especially on his (literal) home turf. The star wideout has scored eight of his 11 touchdowns in seven games at AT&T Stadium, where the Cowboys are averaging a staggering 39.9 points with an average of 3.86 touchdowns per game.
Only one of our five best sportsbooks are offering this prop at better than -150 odds, and two of them are trading at -170 or shorter. I'll gladly lay the -138 price at bet365 on Lamb getting loose at least once against this overmatched secondary.
NFL player props for Week 17: Thursday Night Football
I have about as much faith in Siemian in this spot as I would in myself, and I don't have an NFL-caliber arm. I'm not totally sure the Jets' new QB does, either, but the prop total for his passing yards (176.5) is too low to fade.
Instead, I'm betting against Siemian's ability to throw the ball downfield against one of the best pass defenses in football.
Through 16 weeks, the Browns rank first in pass defense (160.1 YPG) and EPA/pass (-0.23), and they've allowed the league's second-fewest air yards per game (84.4) – behind only the Jets' vaunted secondary. Last week, they didn't allow a completion of 20 yards, and they haven't surrendered a pass longer than 30 yards in three weeks.
Enter Siemian, whose average depth of target (6.6) is the fourth-lowest of any QB with as many attempts (88) as the Jets' new starter. Only nine of those 88 throws have gone beyond 20 yards, which is also the second-fewest of the 46 passers with as many attempts as the former seventh-round pick.
Last week, in his first start of the season, Siemian attemped 49 passes and still couldn't complete a pass longer than 16 yards. His longest completion this year went for 25 yards, and he's completed a pass of 30-plus yards in just three of his last 14 appearances dating back to 2017.
As if all that isn't enough, we're catching a market outlier with this total of 30.5 at bet365 – a number that's dropping across our best sports betting apps as kickoff nears. This isn't exactly a “fun” bet to root for on Thursday night, but they all cash the same.
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