We posted a 4-3 record with our Week 15 NFL player props as we look ahead to a Saturday edition of Sunday Night Football for our Week 16 player props, and we'll look to keep cashing this week while using the best NFL odds from our leading NFL prop betting sites.
After a lousy showing in Week 14, we righted the ship with a 4-3 record (+0.52 units) on our Week 15 NFL player props, including a 4-1 record (+2.52 units) on four-star plays. Incredibly, D'Andre Swift managed to get tackled at the 1-yard line for the 1,000th time in 2023 to prevent us from cashing a +190 wager on the Philadelphia Eagles back to score on Monday.
Still, we'll take the small profit as we head into Thursday Night Football, which features two teams in the New Orleans Saints (7-7) and Los Angeles Rams (7-7) on the postseason bubble, according to the latest NFL playoff odds. We like the top playmakers for th e home favorites to make the difference in a pivotal NFC clash.
Saturday brings us two more games with playoff implications, including a special edition of Sunday Night Football (one day early) between the Buffalo Bills (8-6) and Los Angeles Chargers (5-9). We're setting our sights on a serious mismatch between a rookie tight end and one of the worst units in football.
Sunday's slate is littered with uninspiring matchups in the early window of Christmas Eve. But all eyes will be on the Dallas Cowboys (10-4) and Miami Dolphins (10-4) as they fight for an outside shot at the No. 1 seed in their respective conferences.
Then comes the real present: the Baltimore Ravens (11-3) and San Francisco 49ers (11-3) facing off on Christmas Day in a Monday Night Football showdown between the two front-runners in the Super Bowl odds and 2023 NFL MVP odds. Will Brock Purdy continue his magical run for the tit le favorites? Or will Lamar Jackson punctuate an MVP resume with his team's most significant win of the season?
In addition to our NFL Week 16 predictions, let's dive in with our best NFL player props for Week 16 (odds via our
best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL player props for Week 16
- Dalton Kincaid Over 3.5 receptions (+130 via bet365) ?????
- Kyren Williams Over 89.5 rushing yards (-113 via FanDuel) ????
- Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 passing TDs (-135 via DraftKings) ???? ?
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NFL player props for Week 16: Sunday Night Football (Saturday)
This might be my favorite bet of the entire week, across any sport, as I've had this matchup circled for weeks – even before the Chargers' historically inept showing last week.
If you've following my picks in recent weeks, you know how much I love to attack this Los Angeles defense, which has been abysmal at protecting the middle of the field. Some of that falls on the coaching staff, but much of the blame rests with safety Derwin James – who ranks seventh-worst in PFF defensive grade (53.8) with the sixth-most receptions allowed (35) among 65 safeties with at least 500 snaps.
The Chargers addressed that first part this week, firing head coach Brandon Staley and reshuffling their defensive staff under new interim Giff Smith. Still, don't expect that to be an overnight panacea for a group that ranks in the bottom 10 in targets (103), receptions (78), and receiving yards (823) surrendered to opposing tight ends.
There are so many ways to back Kincaid in this matchup – I've already bet the Over on his receiving yards (28.5 at FanDuel) and longest reception (14.5 at bet365) – but my favorite bet is his receptions total at 3.5, as the rookie has caught five or more passes in seven of his last eight games.
The lone exception came last week, when he was blanked by a Dallas Cowboys defense that ranks in the top five at defending tight ends. He also ceded snaps to Dawson Knox, a superior blocking tight end, in a run-fueled 31-10 rout.
I'd expect Kincaid to be a more featured part of the game plan on Sunday Night Football (on Saturday) agai nst a defense that can be so easily exploited over the middle. This wager is dealing at +105 or worse at three of our five best sportsbooks, so this +130 price at bet365 is the cherry on top of Saturday's sundae.
NFL player props for Week 16: Thursday Night Football
This number has climbed at all of our best sportsbooks since we gave it out in our Saints vs. Rams NFL player props. But we'd still play the Over here with room to spare.
Williams has been emerging as one of the NFL's premier rushers in 2023 while pacing all backs in rushing yards per game (95.3) and success rate (59.7%). He also ranks second in yards before contact (617) and third in broken tackles (20) despite playing in just 10 of 14 games.
The second-year star is averaging 131 yards on the ground over his last five games, rushing for 88 yards against the top-ranked Cleveland Browns defens e and tallying at least 110 yards in the other four contests. Now he'll take aim at a Saints defense allowing the second-most rushing yards per game (154.1) and per carry (5.0) since Week 6. The Saints have given up 110-plus yards in eight of nine games during that stretch.
Four of our five best sports betting sites are dealing this total at 91.5 yards, so it's surprising to see FanDuel offering 89.5 yards with -113 odds both ways. Take the early movement on this prop as a sign to grab that number before it disappears.
Much like with the Williams wager, these odds have been moving since we first highlighted this prop earlier in the week. This price still doesn't deter me from backing one of the NFL's best passers over the past month.
Stafford had thrown multiple touchdown passes in just one of his first nine starts entering Week 12. He's done so in each of his last four games, and his 12 touchdown passes over that stretch rank first among all quarterbacks.
That comes amid an uptick in volume and aggressiveness from Stafford, who has thrown at least 33 passes in each of the last four weeks. Fittingly, the Pro Bowl passer ranks fourth in big-time throws (nine) and fifth in pass attempts traveling 20-plus yards downfield (17) over the last month. That all comes while getting the ball out at the fourth-fastest rate (2.54 seconds) among the 28 passers with 100-plus dropbacks.
This is starting to feel like the Stafford of old, and the Saints have been struggling to limit top-tier passers despite an easy schedule to pad their overall stats. Over 1.5 is trading at shorter than -155 odds through two of our best sports betting apps, so we still see value in this market-best number from DraftKings, even if it's shortened throughout the week.
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