With no Monday Night Football in Week 17, the remaining 15 games of the NFL schedule are condensed to Saturday and Sunday, and we offer our best NFL player props and best bets based on the best NFL odds at the best sportsbooks.
There is much to be determined entering Week 17, as none of the four AFC divisions has been clinched. The Baltimore Ravens can wrap up the No. 1 seed in the AFC in their second consecutive high-profile matchup, this time against the Miami Dolphins.
Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions are the only teams to clinch their division in the NFC.
Three teams are separated by one or fewer games in both the AFC South and NFC South, so every result from those teams will massively skew the playoff odds at the best sports betting sites.
In addition to our NFL Week 17 predictions and NFL Week 17 player props, here are our NFL player props and best bets and NFL picks for Week 17 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL best bets: Week 17
- Jalen Hurts Under 0.5 interceptions vs. Cardinals (-180 via DraftKings) ????
- Cooper Kupp anytime touchdown vs. Giants (+137 via bet365) ???
- Dolphins +3.5 vs. Ravens (-110 via Caesars) ????
- Panthers +7 vs. Jaguars (-110 via Caesars) ????
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Week 17 NFL schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys (-5.5)
- Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
- New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills (-13)
- Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears (-3)
- Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)
- Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-6)
- Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans (-4)
- Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) vs. New York Giants
- Arizona Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-12)
- New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
- San Francisco 49ers (-12.5) vs. Washington Commanders
- Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
- Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)
- Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos (-3.5)
- Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings (-1)
NFL player props for Week 17
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has thrown three interceptions in the last two weeks and has had at least one interception in nine of 15 games this season.
Much of his issues this season come when facing the blitz after Hurts posted a 20-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio from 2020 to 2022 when blitzed. However, this year, that ratio has regressed to 5-7 when blitzed, and the seven interceptions are the most by any quarterback this season, including a pick-6 against the New York Giants last week.
Fortunately, for Hurts, Arizona blitzes at the league's lowest rate (15.8% per Sharp Football Analysis) and applies pressure at a bottom-six rate overall (32.4%). Thus, we expect Hurts to get comfortable in the pocket and be careful with the football on a day when he might not even have the highest passing volume (the O/U for his passing attempts is 31.5 at FanDuel).
Considering the Under is juiced as high as -210 at bet365, we are comfortable paying the price of -180 at DraftKings for Hurts not to throw an interception.
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Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford started the season slowly, with five interceptions and just three passing touchdowns over the first four weeks of the season.
However, he's been in the zone lately, with multiple passing touchdowns in five consecutive games and four straight games of multiple touchdowns and zero interceptions. That's his longest such streak since being traded to Los Angeles, and we're looking for Stafford's most trusted receiver to be the beneficiary of his quarterback's hot streak.
Kupp's four touchdown receptions rank second on the team despite coming in just 11 games, and though he snapped a string of three consecutive games with a touchdown last week, he was still a target hog, seeing 12 from Stafford and dropping two potential touchdowns.
Entering last week, Kupp had a 21.5% target share and 18.2% air-yard share since Week 12, the start of Stafford's hot streak. And from Weeks 14 to 16, Kupp had a higher target and first-read share than teammate Puka Nacua.
We're buying low on Kupp as Nacua is coming off a monster 9-164-1 performance against the New Orleans Saints, but Kupp has more winnable matchups against the New York Giants' vulnerable slot cornerbacks.
We are getting great value at bet365 for Kupp to find the endzone, as he has as low as +100 anytime touchdown odds at BetMGM.
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NFL game picks for Week 17
The Ravens have been anointed as the favorite to win the AFC, but if the Dolphins win out, they would be the No. 1 seed in the playoffs.
Baltimore is 6-1 against teams above .500 this season and has spent the fourth-most amount of time with the lead (72% of all games) among teams since the 1970 merger. However, given all of that, getting anything more than a field goal is an automatic play on the Dolphins.
Miami's defense ranked 27th in completion percentage allowed in Weeks 1 through 7 while allowing the 27th-most points per game and the second-highest total QBR. However, since Jalen Ramsey returned from a knee injury in Week 8, the Dolphins have improved to eighth in completion percentage allowed, first in scoring defense, and first in total QBR.
The Dolphins are coming off a game in which they held the Cowboys to their season-low third-down conversion rate (33%) and pressured Dak Prescott on a season-high 42% of dropbacks. In addition, Tua Tagovailoa's 9.8 air yards per attempt was his second-highest this season, and Miami held Dallas to just one rush over nine yards. That will be integral in limiting a Ravens rushing attack that leads the league with 159.7 yards per game.
Caesars is one of three of our best sports betting apps that has Miami getting a field goal plus the hook (most other shops are at Dolphins +3). However, the other two (FanDuel and DraftKings) both charge -120 in juice to back the underdogs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars would win the AFC South with two victories to end the season despite being locked in a three-way tie at 8-7 entering this week. That is a lot of pressure on their players, and we prefer to back the Carolina Panthers, who have nothing to lose and have played respectable football since the firing of head coach Frank Reich.
Since Reich's firing in Week 13, Carolina ranks slightly behind Jacksonville in offensive EPA/play (24th compared to 20th). That is an indictment on Trevor Lawrence's shaky play, and the quarterback may not even suit up after suffering a shoulder sprain in his throwing arm last week.
Meanwhile, the Panthers rank 16th compared to the Jaguars' 24th ranking in Defensive EPA/Play since Reich's firing, so it is hard to justify the Jaguars being a touchdown favorite, especially if C.J. Beathard is under center.
Carolina has not run a play with a lead in the fourth quarter all season, but no team since 1991 has had that distinction for an entire season, so we are hoping the streak ends this week. In addition, though the Panthers are 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS on the road, the Jaguars are an uninspiring 2-5 SU and ATS at home and are 10-18 ATS after a loss under Lawrence.
Caesars is the only one of our best sports betting sites still offering Carolina +7, as all other competitors have moved under the key number to +6.
NFL best bets made Friday at 7:27 a.m. ET.
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