Fifteen NFL games are spread out over Christmas weekend, and we offer our best NFL player props and best bets for Week 16 based on the best NFL odds.
NFL fans may get a Super Bowl preview this week, as the Sunday matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins and the Monday Night matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers pit some of the best teams from each conference against one another.
These matchups are also historic in that it's the first time since 1980 that the top four teams in point differential all face each other this late in a season, according to CBS Sports researcher Doug Clawson.
Here are our NFL player props and best bets and NFL picks for Week 16 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL best bets: Week 16
- Tua Tagovailoa Over 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Cowboys (-138 via FanDuel) ????
- Rashee Rice anytime touchdown scorer vs. Raiders (+150 via bet365) ???
- Vikings +3.5 vs. Lions (+115 via BetMGM) ?????
- Buccaneers ML vs. Jaguars (-108 via FanDuel) ????
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Week 16 NFL schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Cincinnati Bengals (-2) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Buffalo Bills (-11.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons (-1)
- Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
- Detroit Lions (-3) vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Washington Commanders vs. New York Jets (-3)
- Green Bay Packers (-5) vs. Carolina Panthers
- Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs. Houston Texans
- Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)
- Arizona Cardinals vs. Chicago Bears (-4)
- Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins (-1)
- New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos (-6.5)
- Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-10)
- New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-12)
- Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers (-5)
NFL player props for Week 16
The Miami Dolphins' offense uses motion at the snap at the highest rate (65%) of any team in the league. From those plays, the Dolphins have generated a league-best 40 touchdowns (the next-closest team is the 49ers with 20) and have averaged the second-most yards per play (7.1).
That is an area in which Miami will look to attack the Cowboys' pass defense, as it allows a 73 QBR with motion at the snap (fifth-worst), a 6-0 TD-INT ratio, and a 66% completion percentage on such plays. On all other plays, the Cowboys' pass defense allows a 41 QBR, a 12-13 TD-INT, and a 58% completion percentage.
Tagovailoa has thrown multiple touchdown passes just once in the last four games. Still, though we are not keen on his passing yardage total when facing the league's fourth-stingiest pass defense (the Cowboys allow 176.9 yards per game through the air), we expect Mike McDaniel and the rest of the coaching staff to scheme up ways for Tagovailoa to become the sixth player to throw for multiple touchdowns against the Cowboys.
We are getting great value on this O/U at FanDuel, as the Over is juiced as high as -157 at Caesars.
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Kansas City wide receiver Rashee Rice caught his seventh touchdown last week, setting a Chiefs rookie record with three games to go.
At this point, Rice is unquestionably Patrick Mahomes's safety blanket and No. 1 option. When targeting Rice, Mahomes has averaged 9.0 yards per attempt, completed 80% of his passes, and has a 6-0 TD-INT ratio. When targeting all other wide receivers, Mahomes has averaged 6.6 yards per attempt, has posted a 5-8 TD-INT ratio, and his completion percentage drops to 57%.
The Mahomes-to-Rice connection was at its peak last week when Rice caught all eight of his targets, while Mahomes was 5-of-9 when targeting all other wide receivers.
Eighteen different players have caught a touchdown against the Las Vegas Raiders this season, and while none hauled in multiple touchdowns in the same game, we expect Rice to find the endzone in a “get-right” game for Mahomes in an AFC West-clinching victory.
The best odds for this wager are found at bet365, as DraftKings offers slightly lower +145 odds.
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NFL game picks for Week 16
We are taking advantage of the public's opinion on both of these teams entering this week. The Minnesota Vikings squandered a 17-3 lead after three quarters in an overtime loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, while the Detroit Lions had the third-largest margin of victory of any team last week in a 42-17 trouncing of the Denver Broncos.
The Lions tied a season-high with 29 first downs in last week's victory, and Jared Goff continued to shred man coverage, throwing a season-high three touchdowns against Denver's such setup, which brought his season total to 16 touchdowns and zero interceptions when facing man.
However, Minnesota plays man coverage at a bottom-seven rate (17.7% of snaps) and instead employs Cover-2 at the league's highest rate (23.1%), while Goff is the lowest-rated quarterback in the league against Cover-2 (46.0), per Sharp Football Analysis.
This is also a confident five-star play as we are not sold on Detroit's defense, who entered Week 15 allowing 29.8 points per game, a 71 Total QBR, and a 45% third-down percentage, all of which ranked bottom-four in the league over the previous five games.
All of our other best sports betting apps are at +3, so we do not mind paying up slightly for the extra half-point, which works like an alternate spread. We would be more inclined to play Minnesota on the moneyline (the best odds are +150 at FanDuel) before we backed it at just a field goal.
FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting sites still offering this moneyline odds at a virtual pick'em (each side is -108), as other competitors like DraftKings have moved as high as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers -118, with the growing concern that the Jacksonville Jaguars could be without Trevor Lawrence (he remains in concussion protocol).
And though we still would likely back Tampa Bay even if Lawrence is under center, we are getting out ahead of the potential news of him being out, as the line would likely tilt heavily in Tampa Bay's favor if it were facing C.J. Beathard.
Jacksonville has lost three consecutive games after an 8-3 start and dropped to 1-5 when allowing 21-plus points this season. The Jaguars' defense has been shredded for 425 yards per game over the last three games, which ranks 31st in that span. Jacksonville's offense has also consistently put it in bad positions with poor starts, as the Jaguars rank 20th in offensive points per game (9.9) and tied for 28th in turnovers (12) in first halves this season.
After a year in which the Jaguars went 5-2 with a plus-7 turnover margin in November and December, they are now 2-4 since the start of November this season with a minus-4 turnover margin.
Also, we do not trust the Jaguars' pass defense against Baker Mayfield, who is coming off the first-ever perfect passer rating by a visiting quarterback at Lambeau Field, as Jacksonville entered Week 15 allowing 265.2 passing yards per game (31st), 22 passing touchdowns (tied for 27th), 27 sacks (tied 26th), and a 77 QBR against play-action (31st).
The Buccaneers are enjoying their longest winning streak (three games) in two seasons under Todd Bowles, and we expect them to extend that to four.
NFL best bets made Thursday at 4:08 p.m. ET.
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