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We went 3-2 on our NFL player props last week and enter this week with a winning record on the season as we offer our best Week 4 player prop bets.
- Aaron Jones has been central to the Minnesota Vikings odds boost and faces a favorable matchup ahead of Sunday's homecoming
- Najee Harris could see an uptick in volume with a teammate ruled out
- Marvin Harrison Jr. is primed to extend his scoring streak to three weeks
As part of our NFL Week 4 predictions, here are my favorite player props for this weekend.
NFL player prop bets for Week 4
NFL odds as of Saturday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- Aaron Jones Over 56.5 rushing yards (-115 via BetMGM) at Packers ?????
- Najee Harris Over 17.5 rush attempts (-120 via DraftKings) at Colts ????
- Marvin Harrison Jr. to score a TD (+110 via bet365) vs. Commanders ?????
NFL picks made Saturday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Anyone who's followed this column or read my NFL awards predictions knows how much I love Jones, who helped us cash on a combined yardage bet in his Vikings debut in Week 1.
After a quiet Week 2, the Pro Bowl back ran for 102 yards last week on 19 carries against the Houston Texans – his seventh time with at least 90 yards in his previous eight games dating back to last season.
He needs fewer than 60 yards to cash this bet in an emotional return to Lambeau Field to face his former team, which still hasn't sufficiently answered questions about a run defense that has been underwhelming in Green Bay for ye ars.
If Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell wants to protect his dark-horse NFL MVP odds contender in Sam Darnold from an opportunistic Packers secondary, he'd be wise to feed Jones early and often in Sunday's NFC North showdown.
And if that happens, a winning $10 wager would profit $8.70 at BetMGM, which is offering a total two yards lower than the market consensus.
Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Harris is in the midst of a career-worst year in terms of yards per carry (3.8) and success rate (41.8%). But he's seeing a career-best 18.3 carries per game under new Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith.
The fourth-year back has enjoyed at least 17 carries in all three games this season, even though he's yet to play more than 60% of the snaps as he splits time in the backfield with Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson.
With Warren (knee) officially ruled out for Sunday's matchup with the Indianapolis Colts, Harris is in a prime position to clear this total for the third time in four weeks.
The Steelers rank third leaguewide in rushing rate (57.14%), and the Colts allow the NFL's most plays per game (75.5) while also ceding the most rushing yards (179 YPG) after getting gashed for 200-plus yards in two of the first three weeks.
Even if Harris doesn't find early success, I expect him to keep getting chances to clear this total. And if he does, a $10 bet would return $8.33 in profit at DraftKings.
Best odds: -120 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 54.55%
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Harrison has been as advertised in his first season with the Arizona Cardinals, scoring three touchdowns over the last two weeks to establish himself among the favorites by the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds.
He went off for 130 yards and two touchdowns in the first quarter of a Week 2 win over the Los Angeles Rams. He followed that with 11 targets last week against the Detroit Lions, converting those into 64 yards and a first-quarter score.
Even a double team can't keep Harrison from the end zone, and he has to be salivating at Sunday's matchup with this Washington Commanders secondary.
Dan Quinn's defense ranks 31th in passing yards allowed (255.7 YPG) and has already surrendered nine touchdowns to opposing wide receivers – three more than any other team in football.
If Harrison reaches paydirt in Week 4, a bet at these +100 odds via bet365 would return $10 in profit for every $10 wagered.
Best odds: +110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 47.62%
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