NFL picks, Week 18: Patriots vs. Bills spread, over/under, player prop bets

The New England Patriots will take on the Buffalo Bills in Week 18. Kickoff from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York is set for 1 p.m. ET, with the game airing on CBS. The Patriots can earn the final Wild Card spot with a win, while a win could give the Bills a shot at the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC.

Here, we'll take a look at our picks for best bets for the Patriots-Bills in Week 18 of the NFL season.

Patriots vs. Bills odds

Spread: Bills -7.5
Point total: 43.5
Moneyline: Patriots +260, Bills -315

Our picks, best bets

Pick against the spread: Bills -7.5

Buffalo is coming into this game motivated. With their canceled game from Week 17, they no longer control their own destiny in regard to the No. 1 seed. In their first matchup of the season, the Bills took the 24-10 victory. The Bills are pretty well rested for this matchup and should handle business at home, covering in the process.

Over/under: Under 43.5

The Patriots tend to be run-heavy in their offensive game plan. Buffalo will likely start off by airing the ball out, but once they get ahead, they should slow the offense down and dissect their way down the field. With this methodical game plan, plus how the game went the last time they played, I think we see the under hit.

Player prop: Rhamondre Stevenson under 46.5 rushing yards (-115)

Stevenson had taken over the backfield for the Patriots and has played well throughout the season. He had fewer than 47 yards in three of his last four games played. When he played Buffalo the first time, Stevenson had 10 carries for 54 yards. New England is going to have to pass to stay in this game, and I think the Bills hinder Stevenson's yardage.

  
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