:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71836650/usa_today_19709408.0.jpg "NFL picks, Week 18: Chiefs vs. Raiders spread, over/under, player prop bets")
We have a Week 18 AFC East showdown to close us out the regular season on Saturday as the Kansas City Chiefs travel west to face the Kansas City Chiefs. The game will kick off at 4:30 p.m. ET and will air on ESPN.
Kansas City (13-3) is well on its way to the postseason as the AFC West champion and have plenty to play in the wake of the Bills-Bengals cancellation muddying up the AFC playoff picture a bit. The Chiefs can clinch at least a first-round bye with either: a) a win, b) a tie + a Bills tie, or c) a Bills loss. The Chiefs can outright clinch the the No. 1 seed and homefield advantage with: a) a win + Bills loss/tie or b) a tie + Bills loss.
Las Vegas (6-10) has been eliminated from postseason contention and will be playing out the string one last time in front of its home fans for this season. The Raiders will be starting Jarrett Stidham at quarterback for a second straight week with Derek Carr's tenure in Vegas effectively over.
Here, we'll take a look at our picks for best bets for the Chiefs-Raiders in Week 18 of the NFL season.
Chiefs vs. Raiders odds
Spread: Chiefs -9
Point total: 52.5
Moneyline: Chiefs -425, Raiders +340
Our picks, best bets
Pick against the spread: Raiders +9
While they've been rolling in the back half of the season, the Chiefs have had quite a few close calls down the stretch. Its previous eight games have come within two scores and they nearly lost to the lowly Broncos on two separate occasions in one month. While the Raiders' season is over after Saturday, they still have something to play for. Namely, clinching the rushing crown for running back Josh Jacobs. Give me Las Vegas to cover and make Kansas City sweat a little bit at Allegiant Stadium.
Over/under: Over 52.5
The Kansas City defense will need to be shored up before the postseason and stars like Jacobs and Davante Adams could take advantage of some of their deficiencies on Saturday. That will force Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense to not totally sleepwalk through this matchup as a shot at the No. 1 seed will be within their grasp. Take the over.
Player prop: Jerick McKinnon's longest reception over 14.5 yards (-125)
McKinnon has compiled 265 receiving yards out of the backfield over the last four weeks and has become a dangerous weapon for Mahomes and company. Predicting at least one 15+ yard catch is easy money here.