:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71669871/usa_today_19429544.0.jpg "NFL picks, Week 12: Patriots vs. Vikings spread, over/under, player prop bets")
The NFL's Thanksgiving Day slate will conclude with a matchup between the New England Patriots (6-4) and the Minnesota Vikings (8-2). The Patriots are coming off of possibly the ugliest win of the NFL season, defeating the New York Jets in a 10-3 snoozefest that ended with a punt return touchdown with just seconds to go in the contest. The Vikings on the other hand, are coming off of the ugliest loss of the year getting annihilated by the Dallas Cowboys 40-3. Gametime is set for 8:20 pm ET from US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis and will air on NBC.
Here, we'll take a look at our picks for best bets for the Patriots-Vikings in Week 12 of the NFL season.
Patriots vs. Vikings odds
Spread: Patriots +2.5
Point total: 42.5
Moneyline: Patriots +120 Viking -140
Our picks, best bets
Pick against the spread: Vikings -2.5
The number here is small and has been bet down a little from the initial three points. The Vikings are the better team here and have the better offense with Kirk Cousin and Justin Jefferson. However, there is something to the notion that Cousins plays worse in primetime spots than he does at 1:00 pm starts. The Vikings average about 23 points per game at home and should bounce back after a huge letdown last week. They've also covered the spread in their last five games against AFC opponents.
Over/under: Over 42.5
The Vikings average about 23 points per game at home, and the Patriots average 21 points per game on the road. That puts their averages right over the number here. Both teams had forgettable offensive performances last week and should be able to bounce back. Also, five of the Vikings' last six games at home have gone over on the point total. Take the over.
Player prop: Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown (+110)
Jefferson's touchdown numbers are down this season with only four on the year. This seems like a good spot for him to wake up and get one after being blanked last week against the Cowboys. After a slow start to the year, he's had a few big performances averaging 109 yards per game over the last five.