NFL picks today: QB player prop bets for Championship weekend

The NFL's Conference Championship Sunday is upon us, featuring the Cincinnati Bengals facing the Kansas City Chiefs for the AFC crown, while the Philadelphia Eagles host the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC title game. Both matchups feature noteworthy quarterback matchups, including a head-to-head of MVP candidates in the AFC, while the NFC features the toughest test for this season's breakout story in the rise of Mr. Irrelevant.

Let's take a look at some of the best quarterback props to consider over at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Joe Burrow over 25.5 passing completions (-115)

The Cincinnati Bengals quarterback has some bragging rights over Mahomes heading into the AFC Championship on Sunday, boasting a 3-0 record against him, including last year's win in the AFC title game. In the last two meetings between these elite passers, Burrow has averaged 27.5 completions per game with a 78.6 completion percentage and a 6:0 touchdown to interception ratio.

In the postseason, you put the ball in your best player's hands, and make no mistake that Cincinnati will ride with Burrow in the pocket. It helps that Kansas City gave up the fifth-most completions per game to opposing quarterbacks (23.9).

Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 passing TDs (+160)

Mahomes' mobility may be limited after suffering an ankle sprain in last weekend's divisional win over the Jaguars, but make no mistake that he will be on the field for the AFC title game. The Kansas City Chiefs' franchise quarterback has a track record of playing like he hasn't missed a beat after an injury, and his 2019 Week 2 performance versus the Raiders is evidence. Mahomes threw for 443 yards and four TDs in the win, so can we really count him out on Sunday?

While the passing yards may come down, Mahomes should still be heavily involved in finding his receivers in the end zone. He now has two or more passing touchdowns in five of his last six games, and when these two teams met in last year's AFC title game, Mahomes threw for three touchdowns despite the loss.

Brock Purdy under 220.5 passing yards (-115)

The San Francisco 49ers gutted out a physical 19-12 win over the Dallas Cowboys last week, and it proved to be Purdy's toughest challenge yet. The 49ers quarterback went 19-for-29 for 214 yards without a passing touchdown, but he also went without an interception. At the end of the day, Purdy doesn't need to force throws or play hero ball in order for the 49ers to win. It's a sound strategy, and it could prove to be the case once more against Philadelphia.

The Eagles allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game (207.0) to their opponents in the regular season, and last week limited the Giants to 109 passing yards in a 38-7 blowout victory. San Francisco's is much more talented than New York's, but it doesn't necessitate Purdy dropping back on every play. Expect Kyle Shanahan to get creative with a game plan that gets the other playmakers more involved, which could result in Purdy's passing yards taking a slight hit.

  
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