Who will lead the NFL in passing touchdowns in 2022?
Tom Brady led the league last season with 43 TDs, just over 2.5 per game. It was the fifth time in Brady’s illustrious career that he’s been TD king. His first time winning the crown was a full two decades ago in 2002 when he led the league with 28 TDs. Compare that to last season when nine different QBs threw 33 or more TDs and you see the league’s passing explosion.
Passing TDs can be random. Quarterback TD rates — TDs per pass attempt (TD%) — are relatively stable over a long career, but it’s very normal for random season-long spikes to occur. Take Aaron Rodgers as an example. In 2021, he started the year with an excellent 6.0% career TD%, but spiked to a career-best 9.1% — a massive increase. No surprise that he also leapt from 26 to 48 TDs, leading the league and winning MVP along the way.
We can’t predict random outliers, but we use coaching schemes, passing attempts, and TD% to dig into the numbers. There’s only one season leader, so median outcome is of no use. We need to imagine a best case scenario, how likely it is and see where the betting value lies.