NFL Parlay Picks Week 1: 3-Leg Parlay With +605 Odds

The Chicago Bears are the only NFL franchise to never trot out a quarterback who's thrown for 4,000-plus yards in a season. But there's optimism in the Windy City that Caleb Williams could end that streak during his rookie campaign.

Williams makes his highly anticipated debut Sunday against the Tennessee Titans, who feature a young passer of their own in Will Levis. Both teams are historically known for playing defensive football, but our NFL parlay picks forecast a high-scoring affair between the promising young signal-callers.

Elsewhere in our Week 1 NFL predictions, the Denver Broncos open the season as nearly a touchdown underdog to the Seattle Seahawks, and the Los Angeles Rams wrap up a busy Sunday with a visit to play the Detroit Lions, who rank high in the Super Bowl odds.

Best parlay picks: Week 1

NFL odds via Draftkings as of Thursday and su bject to change. Follow the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

• Titans-Bears Over 44.5 (-112)  ?????
• Broncos +6 (-110) vs. Seahawks  ???
• Lions team total Over 28.5 (-105) vs. Rams ????

Combined odds: +605 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 14.20%

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Week 1 NFL parlay

NFL picks based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites.

After grinding games out on the ground for years with Derrick Henry, the Titans will surely air it out a lot more this season under first-year head coach Brian Callahan. That's no secret to oddsmakers, who made this total higher than it was in all but one of Tennessee's games last season. But I still don't think they've adjusted it up enough.

Levis should enjoy time to find targets downfield against a Chicago pass rush that ranked second-last in sacks a year ago. The Bears' passing game should be far more explosive this year as well with first-overall pick Caleb Williams throwing to a talented receiver group that includes Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore, and former Washington Huskies standout Rome Odunze.

Speaking of Allen, the ex-Charger told reporters this week that Williams is ahead of where Justin Herbert was going into his rookie NFL campaign, a season in which the latter threw for 4,336 yards.

Expect both teams to score into the 20s and for this game to soar over a total that's set too low. Gary Pearson thinks Chicago can prevail in the high-octane contest as part of his Titans vs. Bears prediction.

• Matchup: Titans at Bears
• When: Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET
• Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
• Favorite: Bears (-185 via DraftKings)

Much is being made of Denver quarterback Bo Nix making his first career start in the hostile environment of Seattle, inflating this point spread to a full touchdown. But let's not forget that Nix has logged plenty of experience playing in boisterous stadiums during his time in the SEC with Auburn and then the Pac-12 with Oregon.

Seattle's reputation as a tough place to play migh t also be more myth than reality, at least since the days of the Legion of Boom in the mid-2010s. The Seahawks are a pedestrian 13-13 straight up and 11-14-1 against the spread over their last 26 games at Lumen Field. And the Hawks have covered the number just four times in their last 15 as home favorites of six or more.

Throw in the fact that Seattle could take some time to adjust to the defensive scheme of new head coach Mike Macdonald, and I don't see the Seahawks pulling away for a comfortable victory here. That's especially true against a Denver defense that was among the league's best down the stretch in 2023.

• Matchup: Broncos at Seahawks
• When: Sunday, Sept. 8, 4:05 p.m. ET
• Where: Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
• Favorite: Seattle (-250 via DraftKings)

Detroit's offense is notoriously hard to stop on the fast track of Ford Field, and now the Lions get to face a Rams defense reeling from the retirement of superstar lineman Aaron Donald. The early Rams vs. Lions odds show Detroit as the heavy favorite.

Lions QB Jared Goff should get better protection in the passing game. But Donald's absence will be more evident against the run, allowing Detroit to keep piling on the points even if the Lions are playing with a lead in the second half.

I liked this parlay leg even more earlier in the week when the Lions' team total was below the key number of 28. Then a significant line move toward Detroit and the Over on Thursday drove the number over four touchdowns.

But there's still enough meat on the bone to play this up to 29.5 with a Lions squad that's eclipsed 30 points in 14 of its last 21 outings at home.

• Matchup: Rams at Lions
• When: Sunday, Sept. 8, 8:20 p.m. ET
• Where: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
• F avorite: Detroit (-205 via DraftKings)

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