NFL Parlay Picks for This Week at +1428

We finally did it. After several months of no football, it’s officially football season. The season began on Thursday night as Kansas City defeated the Ravens thanks to Likely’s big toe and then the Eagles hung on to beat the Packers in Brazil on Friday night. But finally, we have a massive Sunday slate of games. Let’s get right into my NFL Week 1 mega parlay that pays out at over 14/1 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Arizona Cardinals +3.5 (+142) over Buffalo Bills

Look away if you like defense. The Cardinals match up with the Bills in Buffalo for their Week 1 matchup and oddsmakers are expecting plenty of points. This is for 2 main reasons, the first being neither team boasts a strong defense. Arizona had one of the worst defensive units in all of football last season as they allowed the 2nd most points per game. Their secondary was middle of the pack, but their defensive line was atrocious. The Cardinals surrendered the most rushing yards per game (143.2) which was the most by a decent margin, and I'm expecting Josh Allen to attempt to exploit that weakness. However, Buffalo has plenty of weaknesses of their own. They lost Jordan Poyer in the offseason and are also without Matt Milano as he recovers from an injury. Without those two, the Bills defense is going to look a lot different. That should allow Kyler Murray to get creative with his playmakers. The speedy QB has James Conner in the backfield like usual, but he also has Marvin Harrison Jr. and rising star Trey McBride downfield. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cardinals score on their first few possessions against a Bills defense still trying to gel, so there's a lot of value in getting the Cardinals to cover a +3.5 spread at plus odds.

Cleveland Browns -6.5 (+182) over Dallas Cowboys

It's a new season in Cleveland and the hopes are sky high. Deshuan Watson has the tools and pieces to be successful in 2024 as the Browns have surrounded him with a lot of elite talent. Even without Nick Chubb, the Browns have Jerome Ford in the backfield and strengthened their receiving corps by adding Jerry Jeudy from the Broncos. That means Watson has Jeudy, Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, and David Njoku for options downfield. Those are plenty of reliable receivers that are going up against a banged-up Dallas secondary that is missing rising star DaRon Bland. If Watson settles in early, I could easily see him with 230+ passing yards. As for the Dallas offense, there isn't much to be excited about besides CeeDee Lamb. They are limited at running back and don't have a solid receiving corps besides Lamb and Jake Ferguson. I'm pretty pessimistic about the Cowboys offense if you couldn't tell, so I'm backing the better team in thi s matchup to win by a touchdown.

Detroit Lions -6.5 (+124) over Los Angeles Rams

It's an NFC Wild Card rematch in Detroit as the Rams and Lions face off in Week 1. I wouldn't be surprised if this game turns into a shootout and oddsmakers agree since the total is set north of 50 points. Both of these teams prioritize one thing: offense. The Lions had one of the most dynamic offenses last season since they had David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs in the backfield with Jared Goff throwing the ball to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. Those offensive playmakers led the Lions to averaging the 5th most points per game in 2023. The only issue that the Lions ran into last season was their defense. Detroit finished the year allowing the 8th most points per game, so although they were scoring nearly 30 points per game, they were also giving up almost the same amount. Fortunately, the Lions recognized their weakness and strengthened their defensive unit in the offseason. I'm expecting Matthew Stafford to find Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua throughout the game, but the Lions offense is just too good. I think Detroit secures the Week 1 win by at least a touchdown.