Having covered six straight point spreads, the Detroit Lions are in the hunt to make the NFC playoffs as the New York Giants continue to struggle. In this article, we examine the NFL odds for Week 15 and attempt to predict how they will move throughout the week.
Dan Campbell's odds have moved from +20000 to +1200 at FanDuel to win the Coach of the Year award. Meanwhile, Jared Goff is making headlines in the Comeback Player of the Year market. The Detroit Lions are making a strong push for the playoffs. However, which team should be favored when they travel to New York t o face the Jets on Sunday? Even the sportsbooks are uncertain about this answer at this point in the week.
Here are the NFL spread and Over/Under lines for Week 15, and how we think the lines will move throughout the week (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook, PointsBet, and Caesars Sportsbook).
NFL Week 15 Odds and Lines: Thursday
Spread: 49ers -3.5
The Brock Purdy hype train is in full swing and it's evident in the spread for the San Francisco 49ers this week. It opened as a 3-point favorite for the 49ers, but the line quickly moved to 49ers -3.5. This line is unlikely to remain at 49ers -3.5 for long, and it should begin to move in favor of the Seahawks. Across the board, the Seahawks are already receiving increased juice.
Total: 43.5
We have seen no movement in the total since it opened at 43.5. Since the Seahawks allowed 30 points to Sam Darnold and the Carolina Panthers, I would n't be surprised if this total increased by one or two points during the week.
Here are our Week 14 trends to know.
NFL Week 15 Odds and Lines: Saturday
Spread: Vikings -4
Throughout the season, one of the biggest debates has been whether the Minnesota Vikings are actually good. In Week 14, the Vikings were exposed once again by the Detroit Lions, who defeated them 34-23. The outcome of their game has impacted the line, which was trading at Vikings -5.5, but is now trading as low as Vikings -4. While the spread may have initially dropped to Vikings -4, I believe it will begin to move in the Vikings' favor to make them 4.5-point favorites in no time.
Total: 48.5
The total has moved all over the place early in the week after opening at 47.5. On DraftKings, the total went from 47.5 to 49.5 and then back down to 48.5. It's clear that support is coming from both sides, and we can expect this constan t battle throughout the week.
Spread: Browns -3
This spread will be heavily dependent on the news we receive about Ravens quarterback Tyler Huntley's health after he entered concussion protocol. It'll be undrafted rookie Anthony Brown starting at quarterback for the Ravens if Huntley is unable to play. Against the Bengals last week, we saw the Browns take a tremendous amount of money right before kickoff. Don't be surprised if this occurs again in Week 15.
Total: 37.5
The Cleveland Browns are ranked near the bottom of several team defensive metrics in the NFL, so this is a very low total for a Browns game. This total is likely to increase by a few points if Huntley is able to clear the concussion protocol and be named the Ravens' starter.
Spread: Bills -7.5
The Miami Dolphins have lost two consecutive games, and the public's perception of the Dolphins is deteriorating rapidly. While the Dol phins defeated the Buffalo Bills 21-19 earlier in the season, we see them catching 7.5 points in Week 15. Throughout the week, I expect the spread to fluctuate between Bills -7 and Bills -7.5.
Total: 42
The total opened at 43.5 and has decreased by 1.5 points to 42. We are expecting cold weather in Buffalo, as well as a chance of snow. I believe there is a growing concern about the Dolphins offense playing in the cold weather after the Dolphins used heaters on their sidelines at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. People are leaning toward the Under for this matchup between the Bills and Dolphins due to this narrative.
NFL Week 15 Odds and Lines: Sunday
Spread: Saints -4
The lookahead line was New Orleans Saints -3, however when the Atlanta Falcons announced they were replacing Marcus Mariota with Desmond Ridder at quarterback, the line immediately moved from Saints -3 to Saints -4.5. It appears that this spread has yet to settle, as it continues to fluctuate through key numbers. Clearly, this is related to the fact that people are trying to determine the new price point without having any information about Desmond Ridder.
Total: 43
Similar to the spread, we aren't seeing a consensus number for the total due to the lack of information regarding Ridder's performance as the Falcons' quarterback. Not only is Ridder making his first start, but the offense should look much different if it's tailored to Ridder's skillset rather than Mariota's. At 42.5, FanDuel has the lowest number, while DraftKings has the highest number at 43.5.
Spread: Eagles -8.5
At Caesars, the Eagles opened as an 8-point favorite, while at BetMGM, they opened as a 9-point favorite. As of now, Eagles -8 is no longer available, and I believe it'll not be long before the Eagles -8.5 we see at FanDuel, DraftKings and PointsBet disappears as well. Having demonstrated their abili ty to blow out teams, I believe the Eagles will receive plenty of support against the Chicago Bears.
Total: 48.5
It's possible that the Eagles might hit the Over 48.5 by themselves against a Bears passing defense that ranks 31st on Football Outsider in terms of passing defense DVOA. It's just a joke, but seriously, they might. I don't think that the total will remain at 48.5, as it has moved from 47.5 to 48.5. As we approach kickoff on Sunday, I wouldn't be surprised if this number crosses 50.
Spread: Jets Pick
I look forward to tracking this spread throughout the week since it continues to move across zero and there is no consensus regarding who the favorite is. At FanDuel and DraftKings, the Detroit Lions are 1-point favorites after covering six straight spreads. The New York Jets, who have an improved offense with Mike White at quarterback, are trading as a 1-point favorite at BetMGM and PointsBet. Injury news concerning White and his ribs may determine who closes as the favorite in this matchup.
Total: 44.5
Since this total opened at 48, we've seen a significant move towards the Under. The total has now fallen all the way down to 44.5, but I don't expect it to remain at this number throughout the week. Bettors are just waiting to see how low the number goes before they place their Over wagers. I believe we'll see a lot of buyback on the Over in the near future.
Spread: Steelers -2.5
In an unexpected turn of events, the Carolina Panthers are in the running to win the NFC South and make the NFL playoffs. It won't be long before I'm throwing away my Panthers' worst record in NFL futures. The spread is pretty much in line with where it should be trading with the Steelers as a 2.5-point favorite, but I think we might see the Steelers close as a consensus 2-point favorite.
Total: 38.5
The total opened at 4 0 and has decreased 1.5 points to 38.5. While Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett is currently in concussion protocol, Mitch Trubisky is not that much of a dropoff from Pickett. As of now, I don't see this total getting any lower than the 38.5 we're seeing in the market.
Spread: Cowboys -4.5
Take a closer look at Trevor Lawrence's stats in the second half of the season when you have a chance. With Doug Pedersen as his head coach, Lawrence is making the leap that we all thought he would make in his second year in the NFL. Having said that, I believe this spread is too low for the Cowboys, and I believe they'll close as 5.5-point favorites. It's hard for me to place much weight on what I saw from the Cowboys against the Houston Texans. It was obvious they were not taking the Texans seriously.
Total: 47.5