The Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings played to exact opposite fates in Week 10, and their Week 11 spread is going to be one of the most interesting to follow. This is a look at the NFL odds and lines for Week 11 and an analysis of where the point spreads and totals could move throughout the week.
Bettors are lining up to support the Vikings following their upset road win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 10. Oddsmakers have a tough call on their hands as a result. Will they move the spread to a pick'em and risk an influx of money coming in on the Cowboys?
The following are the NFL spread and Over/Under lines for Week 11, and where we think the lines will move throughout the week (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, PointsBet, and Caesars Sportsbook).
All noted look-ahead spread and totals are via DraftKings as of Wednesday, Nov. 9.
Check out our NFL against-the-spread picks power rankings for Week 11!
NFL Week 11 Odds and Lines
Spread: Packers -2.5
The Green Bay Packers overcame a 28-14 deficit in the second half against the Cowboys to win in Week 10. That has helped moved this spread further in the Packers' direction from the look-ahead line of -1. The Tennessee Titans are on a 7-0 run against the spread, whereas Green Bay sports a 2-5 ATS record through its past seven games. Furthermore, the Titans received betting support last week with 58% of the handle via DraftKings and 57% via BetMGM against the Denver Broncos. Green Bay garnered just 36% and 43%, respectively .
Over/Under: 41
With the Under cashing in each of Tennessee's past six games, and the Green Bay offense struggling to score before Sunday's 31-point breakout against Dallas, support for the Over might be hard to come by for this game. Additionally, the Titans average the most seconds per play in the league, and the Packers are the fourth-slowest team. I anticipate this total hovering in the key range of 40-41 all week, and there was a slight disparity across sportsbooks Monday morning.
Spread: Falcons -3
After covering the spread in six straight games to open the season, the Atlanta Falcons failed to beat the number in each of their past four contests. Interestingly, while the Chicago Bears lost outright to the Detroit Lions as 3-point favorites in Week 10, this spread has shrunk from the look-ahead line of Atlanta -4. It probably has more to do with Atlanta also losing outright on the road as a 3-point favorite against the Carolina Pa nthers on Thursday Night Football.
Over/Under: 49
Chicago quarterback Justin Fields' breakout stretch has this total trading among the highest of the week, and it's also climbed slightly from the look-ahead number of 48.5. The total has gone Over in each of the Bears' past four games, but the Under hit in five of the past seven contests for the Falcons. Chicago ranks 29th in defensive DVOA, and Atlanta ranks 30th, so there could be even more support for the Over given the poor defense the two teams have played. If the total reaches the key number of 51, I'd expect buyback on the Under.
Spread: Ravens -11.5
This spread is all over the map. The Baltimore Ravens are trading as low as -10.5 via FanDuel and as high as -12 via Caesars. There probably won't be public support for the Panthers with Baltimore playing at home and coming off its bye week. However, I don't anticipate the margin climbing to Ravens -13 without som e buyback on the Panthers. It's also telling that the line has dropped from Baltimore -12.5.
Over/Under: 44
These two teams have played to a combined 7-12 Over/Under record, and the look-ahead total was also 44. Again, there is a slight disparity in the total across our top-rated sportsbooks with it trading at either 44 or 44.5. One important consideration to keep in mind is that Baltimore has faced the fourth-most difficult schedule of opposing offenses by DVOA, whereas Carolina has the fifth-easiest slate of opposing defenses. With this total already hovering at the top of the key range of 43-44, I could see Under money coming in this week if it climbs to 45.
Spread: Bills -9
Oddsmakers clearly aren't concerned about the Buffalo Bills blowing a 27-10 lead to the Vikings late in the third quarter in Week 10. Obviously, there's some noise in the look-ahead line of Buffalo -6.5 with quarterback Josh Allen's elbow injury impac ting the betting market. There's also been early support of the Bills to help push this line up from the opening -8.5, as there are even a few sportsbooks listing Buffalo at -9.5. There could be a buyback on the Cleveland Browns at the key number of 10, but bettors were also burned by the Browns in Week 10. Cleveland received 61% of the betting handle on the spread last week against the Miami Dolphins via BetMGM and lost by 22.
Over/Under: 47
The injuries to the Buffalo defense continue to have a major impact, but the Bills' 33-30 loss in Week 10 was the first time the total had gone over the number in a Buffalo game since Week 2. Cleveland has an Over/Under record of 6-2-1, and the Browns have also been an incredibly efficient offense while ranking sixth in offensive DVOA and seventh in EPA per play. This is another total hovering in no man's land – well above the key range of 43-44 and well below the key number of 51. Additionally, Allen's injury definitely had an effect on the look-ahead line of 44 points, and the early money has come in on the Over.
Spread: Commanders -2.5
The Houston Texans lost their fourth consecutive game in Week 10, and the only time they covered the spread was in Week 9 at home on a short week against the Philadelphia Eagles as 14-point underdogs. With the Washington Commanders facing the Eagles on Monday Night Football this week, this spread will be impacted by the results. If Washington hangs in with Philadelphia, this spread will move in the Commanders' favor – and potentially significantly.
Over/Under: 40.5
This total hasn't moved from the look-ahead or opening number, which suggests it's accurate. It will also probably be impacted by the results of Washington's play on Monday Night Football. It's definitely worth highlighting the slight improvement on offense the Commanders have shown since quarterback Taylor Heinicke has taken over und er center, and the Washington defense has also been sneaky-good since the Week 3 loss to the Eagles with an eighth-best rank in EPA allowed per play.
Spread: Eagles -9
The Indianapolis Colts upsetting the Las Vegas Raiders on the road in Week 10 has made an impact on this spread, as it's dipped from the look-ahead line of Eagles -10. It's an important drop below the key number of 10, too. Philly hosts the Washington Commanders on Monday Night Football to conclude Week 10, and there is potential for additional movement to this spread based on the Eagles' performance.
Over/Under: 44.5
FanDuel has an outlier line of 44 available, but otherwise, it's a consensus total of 44.5 across our top-rated sportsbooks. It's a notable difference because the jump from the look-ahead line of 43.5 to 44.5 pushes it above the key range of 43-44. Again, with the Eagles playing Monday, there is potential for additional movement to this total.
Spread: Patriots -3