It might be the NFL offseason, but that's the perfect time to start breaking down NFL odds and getting involved in the NFL futures market.
I already write and analyze the Super Bowl odds market for NFL bettors. With the 2023 NFL season right around the corner, I thought it was time to start digging into the NFL MVP odds market, too.
Here's some early notes and numbers that should give you a great baseline to bet your ticket.
NFL MVP: History Matters, So Pick a Quarterback'
Any time you're betting into an awards market for futures, it's important to consider the nature and history of recent award winners.'
For both NFL MVPs and Heisman Trophy winners, the award has become heavily quarterback-centric over the last 10 to 15 years.'
For NFL MVP specifically, only one non-quarterback has won the award over the last 16 seasons. That was Adrian Peterson in 2012, when he returned quickly after an ACL tear and came eight yards short of breaking Eric Dickerson's single-season record. (Peterson finished with 2,097 yards.)
Other than that, it's all quarterbacks. I've provided the full historical list dating back to 1957 at the bottom of this article, in case you want to review everything before betting into the market.
The history is clear, though. If you want to bet a skill player, head over to AP Offensive Player of the Year. AP NFL MVP, though – that's become an award for quarterbacks.
Justin Fields’ odds to win NFL MVP at @BetMGM
+3000: Open
+1800: Nowpic.twitter.com/5YxTivlOm7
– John Ewing (@johnewing) June 27, 2023
NFL MVP Odds
| Player | Current Odds | Opening Odds | Highest Finish |
| Patrick Mahomes | 650 | 650 | Winner (2022) |
| Joe Burrow | 650 | 650 | 4th (2022) |
| Josh Allen | 750 | 650 | 2nd (2020) |
| Justin Herbert | 900 | 900 | T-9th (2022) |
| Jalen Hurts | 1000 | 1000 | 2nd (2022) |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1400 | 1000 | T-9th (2022) |
| Trevor Lawrence | 1400 | 1400 | 7th (2022 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1400 | 2500 | Winner (2021, 2020, 2014) |
| Dak Prescott | 1600 | 1400 | 6th (2016) |
| Lamar Jackson | 1600 | 1600 | Winner (2019) |
| Justin Fields | 1800 | 3000 | T-9th (2022) |
| Jare d Goff | 2500 | 4000 | N/A |
| Trey Lance | 2500 | 5000 | N/A |
| Deshaun Watson | 3000 | 3000 | N/A |
| Brock Purdy | 3000 | 2500 | N/A |
| Geno Smith | 3000 | 2500 | T-9th (2022) |
| Russell Wilson | 4000 | 5000 | N/A |
| Derek Carr | 4000 | 4000 | T-3rd (2016) |
| Jordan Love | 5000 | 5000 | N/A |
| Kyler Murray | 5000 | 5000 | N/A |
| Kenny Pickett | 5000 | 4000 | N/A |
| Matthew Stafford | 5000 | 6600 | N/A |
| Kirk Cousins | 5000 | 5000 | N/A |
| Daniel Jones | 5000 | 5000 | N/A |