This is a pretty simple handicap for me. We have a Chiefs team that clearly is perfectly fine on offense, sitting #1 in EPA. They are facing a Raiders defense that really hasn't stopped anyone yet this season and ranks 24th in EPA on drop backs, 30th in yards per attempt allowed adjusted by opponent, has allowed the 4th-highest rate of explosive passes and is 28th in pressure rate. That's an incombustible set of ingredients to have when facing Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and the rest of this offense.
The Raiders’ defense has let every opponent score at least 23 points this season and both the Cardinals and Broncos have reached the most points scored this season against the Raiders. In fact, the Broncos’ offense that has struggled to score on anybody this season was able to score 23 points in their game against Las Vegas. The Broncos have averaged only 13 points per game against 4 opponents not named Las Vegas.
Mahomes has historically demolished this Raiders defense and in eight career games against Las Vegas/Oakland, the Chiefs have averaged 37.3 points. The Chiefs have scored less than this 30 point hurdle only once in Mahomes' career — a 2019 contest in which the Chiefs scored “only” 28.
Once the Chiefs get into the red zone against this defense, I feel confident that they won't need to settle for field goals. The Chiefs sit 7th best in converting red-zone opportunities into TDs, while the Raiders defense is 3rd worst in the NFL in TD percentage allowed in the red zone. That isn't a fluke, either, as the Raiders defense finished dead last in the NFL last season in allowing TDs in the red zone.