NFL first touchdown scorer player prop picks
Week 14 was full of upsets for NFL bettors, survivor players and us first touchdown fans. All season I’ve been using a system to make educated bets in the FTD (first touchdown) market. I track every touchdown from every team, and use that to find mismatches in games based on their success rates. I then only target players from the better team. Almost every week this season, the system has correctly predicted the right team in the majority of games. No such luck this week, as only four of nine games with mismatches followed the rule. Even more frustrating, hardly any favorites scored. Ten of the fifteen winners this week had odds at +850 or longer. Sometimes, the trends are just not our friends.
I’ll try to right the ship in a moment, but first, here are my friends and foes from Week 14:
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Friends
The Packers: As I highlighted in last week’s article, Green Bay is not to be ignored in this market right now. They've now scored first in five of their last six games and thankfully, I capitalized on them this week when Jayden Reed scored his fourth FTD of the season. The only bad news is that the books have caught on to the rookie’s ability. His first three FTDs cashed between +1700 and +2000 at DraftKings. This one was just +750.