I’ve always believed that one of the best ways to make consistent profits in NFL betting, and any other sport for that matter, is through the use of systems.
Systems are different from trends. Trends tend to be team specific, thus shorter-lived and riskier to follow. Systems are leaguewide, with a fundamental angle providing reliable predictability.
We all know that nothing in sports betting is a lock, but I feel that systems provide the foundation on which successful sports betting is built. They come with no bias and, if built upon solid principles, typically perform consistently or even spectacularly.
One of the key fundamentals I use in building systems for any sport is the circumstance of extremes and how teams react to them. What I’m specifically looking to find out is how teams fare in the follow-up game when coming off of one of these extreme situations. After all, unusual performances tend to either galvanize teams or shred their cohesiveness.
Before we get too deep into the season and miss out on some golden opportunities, I figured it would be a good time to share some NFL extreme betting systems that I was unable to uncover from studying the last 10+ years of games.
There are 17 systems in this report. In Nos. 10 through 12, you'll find games that fit the system this week.
Huge divisional upsets
1. Teams that lose outright as double-digit favorites to division rivals have bounced back with a 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS (78.6%) record in the next game since 2015.
Nothing wakes a team up faster than being taken down as a heavy favorite by a division rival. For at least one week, the urgency level is cranked up. Having played as a double-digit favorite the week prior, these are solid teams and can be counted on to rebound. This last happened on Dec. 26, 2021, when Tampa Bay bounced back from a 9-0 loss to New Orleans to trounce Carolina 32-6.