Strategies using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the Betting Splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published in the 2023 NFL Betting Guide Part 2, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 8:45 a.m. ET Sunday morning. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.
DK Betting Splits system #1: When more than 65% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 35-53 ATS (39.8%). The number for this “supermajority” in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, MIAMI, CINCINNATI, SAN FRANCISCO, NEW ORLEANS, NEW ENGLAND, PHILADELPHIA, DETROIT, LA RAMS, BUFFALO, DALLAS
DK Betting Splits system #2: The percentage breakdown can be expanded a bit for the number of bets. When 63%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 66-92 ATS (41.8%). The NFL is the most public of all bet-able sports. If 63%+ of the bettors at DraftKings like a particular side, fade 'em’.