We have scoured the various betting markets to determine our NFL best bets for Week 5 based on the best NFL odds, with Week 5 being the first of the NFL season where four teams have bye weeks. This results in a smaller-than-usual 14-game slate but there's still plenty of value to be found.
With just two games this week being between division rivals, fans, and bettors will see how several teams perform outside their most common competition. In addition, the Sunday Night Football tilt between the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers is the only game between two teams with winning records, As such, Week 5 will provide plenty of opportunities to separate contenders from pretenders further.
To accompany all of your NFL predictions for Week 5, here are our NFL best bets and NFL picks for Week 5 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Week 5 NFL schedule and odds
(Odds via Caesars)
- Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills (-5.5)
- Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts (PK)
- Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Kansas City Chiefs (-5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers (-4)
NFL best bets: Week 5
- Josh Allen Under 0.5 interceptions vs. Jaguars (-104 via BetRivers) ????
- De'Von Achane anytime touchdown scorer vs. Giants (+115 via FanDuel) ???
- C.J. Stroud Under 248.5 passing yards vs. Falcons (-115 via BetMGM) ????
- Steelers team total Under 15 vs. Ravens (+129 via Caesars) ????
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NFL predictions for Week 5
It seems like eons ago that Josh Allen tied a career-high with four turnovers in a season-opening loss to a Zach Wilson-led New York Jets team. Allen is coming off a game against the Miami Dolphins where he had a perfect passer rating (158.3), It was also his third career game with four passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown, tied for the most in NFL history.
When under center on play-action throws, Allen has a 98 Total QBR (first in the NFL), has averaged 17.3 yards per attempt (first), and has had zero off-target throws. While Allen was 4-for-9 for 71 yards with three interceptions on passes at least 15 air yards (7.5 QBR) against the Jets, he completed all five passes for 112 yards and three touchdowns on throws of 10-plus air yards to Stefon Diggs alone against the Dolphins.
The Jacksonville Jaguars allowed 20 or more fantasy points to two rookie quarterbacks (C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson) and Patrick Mahomes so far this year, so while the Jaguars are tied for seventh with four interceptions this season, they have not faced a murderer's row of signal callers. This is a four-star play, as Allen has 10 total touchdowns and one giveaway during the team's three-game winning streak, and we are getting great value for him to turn in another clean performance in this matchup.
BetRivers is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering less than -117 juice to back Allen to go without an interception against the Jaguars.
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Dolphins running back De'Von Achane has 26 fewer career touchdowns than teammate Raheem Mostert but has had just one fewer touchdown and averages 29.6 more yards per game in 2023. Miami has done well to take advantage of Achane's speed, as entering Week 4, he recorded two of the five fastest plays this season (per NFL Next Gen Stats). Achane has averaged 10.69 yards per touch and managed 27 fantasy points against Buffalo when the offense was held to season lows in Offensive Efficiency and Offensive EPA.
With Miami's team total O/U set at 30.5 points and the Over on 3.5 team total touchdowns juiced to -130 at DraftKings, Achane is a great value play to find the end zone once again, even if the bulk of his touches are in garbage time when the team has already built a big lead. This would be a more confident four-star play if running back Jeff Wilson Jr. is not activated off injured reserve, as this is the first week he is eligible to play.
FanDuel's +115 anytime touchdown odds represent incredible value compared to the steep -175 price at Bet MGM for Achane to find the end zone.
Houston Texans rookie C.J. Stroud's 1,212 passing yards are the second-most all-time in a quarterback's first four career games. He has had three straight games of 250-plus yards passing with two touchdowns and zero interceptions, and he is one of six quarterbacks with 300 passing yards per game and no interceptions through the first four games of a season. However, given the Atlanta Falcons' ball-control style of offense and ability to defend the deep ball, we expect Stroud to be in for his worst statistical game yet.
Per Sharp Football Analysis, Atlanta ranks fifth in allowing 6.2 yards per attempt when it does not get pressure on the quarterback. Furthermore, opposing quarterbacks are completing fewer than 38% of their passes that travel 10-plus yards downfield against them, which is the fifth-best rate in the league. Considering Stroud ranks third with 30 completions that traveled 10 o r more air yards, the Falcons are built to mitigate one of his biggest strengths.
The Falcons rank 19th in time of possession, as they have been tied or trailing during 93.1% of their offensive plays. But quarterback Desmond Ridder is 30-0 all-time at home as a starter (26-0 in college, 4-0 in the NFL), and we expect Atlanta and its rushing attack to do much better possessing the ball, which limits Stroud's and the Texans' overall offensive ceiling.
FanDuel offers a slightly lower yardage total (247.5), while other shops like DraftKings and Caesars are juiced to -125 or higher to back the Under of 248.5.
Historical trends suggest the Pittsburgh Steelers should cover the spread in this matchup against the Baltimore Ravens. The underdog has covered the spread in 11 consecutive games in this rivalry, and head coach Mike Tomlin's Steelers teams are 14-3-1 ATS as home underdogs. But while the Steelers may have ATS success, we do not expect their offense to play well.
Mitchell Trubusky is expected to start in place of the injured Kenny Pickett, but Pickett ranked 30th of 33 quarterbacks in Total QBR (29.3). The last time the Steelers played at home, they managed nine first downs against the Cleveland Browns (the second-fewest under Tomlin), converted four of 14 third downs, and ran for just 55 yards.
Pittsburgh's 22.5% rate of passing plays resulting in a first down or touchdown is the lowest in the league, and they rank 31st in percentage of drives that end in scores (14.6%). Thus, we do not expect Trubisky to help lead the team to an explosive day against the Ravens' third-ranked scoring defense (14.5 points per game allowed).
FanDuel offers the best price (-104) to back Pittsburgh's team total Under 16.5. Still, with the unlikelihood that the Steelers score exactly 16 points, we are taking advanta ge of Caesars' plus-money odds to back the alternate team total Under 15.
NFL best bets made 10/5/2023 at 4:13 p.m. ET.
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