The NFL playoffs are finally here, which means it's time to start considering how to bet Super Wild Card Weekend.
As I do at the end of every week during football season, I'm sharing some of my favorite NFL betting lines from the upcoming weekend of NFL playoff games. Tail or fade at your leisure.
NFL Wild Card Weekend Predictions: Picks Against the Spread
After I've handicapped the whole board each week, I publish my best plays from the wider canon of NFL odds.
I'll provide a short explanation of why I like each bet, so you don't have to go on faith alone.
If you prefer an audio version of this weekly article, you can always subscribe to The Lion's Edge, my weekly handicapping podcast for BetMGM. More on that in a little bit.'
One rule to keep in mind: Any time there's an underdog in the range of +3 to +7, I'm almost always sprinkling a quarter-unit moneyline play on top of the spread play.'
In the playoffs, there's an even greater emphasis on straight moneyline plays. Because playoff games nearly always end with either a favorite cover or an outright underdog victory, additional moneyline bets should be strongly considered.
The Chargers are the supposed “hot” team coming into the playoffs, which is often a beloved public betting spot. The betting community has a tendency to remember when hot teams went on magical runs to the Super Bowl, like the Packers in 2010 or the very elite Joe Flacco Ravens in 2012.'
The reality is that for every hot team that enters the playoffs and mounts a run, there's another three or four who flame out unexpectedly. Because of this, there is often a sharp market opening in fading trendy, hot Wild Card teams.
The Chargers certainly qualify. Early returns from this week's NFL betting action at the BetMGM online sportsbook had 68% of tickets backing the Chargers as a road playoff favorite in Jacksonville. The marketwide number for the Chargers is about 60%.
Despite the overwhelming volume in favor of the Chargers, the number actually moved in Jacksonville's favor throughout the early portion of the week, sliding all the way down to Jaguars +1 (-115). Clearly, sharp bettors felt there was an early edge with Doug Pederson and the Jags.
Personally, I felt I had missed my window to bet on Jacksonville, but that was before the line snapped back to its opening position of Jags +2.5 later in the week. Now, the line is close enough for me to do what I really wanted to do all along: Buy the half-point and bet Jacksonville at +3.'
Point spreads may not be great investments on the whole for playoff season, but Brandon Staley's aggressive coaching style and penchant for two-point conversions could magnetize this outcome toward a key number.'
At +2.5 or +120 ML, the Jags are a play for me on market profile alone. But I'd much rather have the superior number and the slightly reduced payout, at least in the NFL point spread market.'
Play: Jaguars +2.5; Jaguars +120
It's nice to see the Dolphins return to the NFL Playoffs for the first time since 2016, but let's keep some perspective here. Miami has yet to win a game this season without Tua Tagovailoa; about one-quarter of its roster is currently limited with an injury designation or not practicing at all.'
The Dolphins were lucky to get by an unmotivated Jets team last week that was forced to play with its third-string quarterback, which happens to be the reanimated corpse of the aforementioned Joe Flacco.'