NFL Week 18 Best Bets
The Sunday New Year’s Eve slate was a very good one for me in the NFL, as I was able to hit six of eight Best Bets, going 6-3 ATS overall for the weekend. That included a moneyline win on the Saints as well. With just this upcoming weekend left in the regular season, my record has grown to 73-48-2 ATS, a touch over 60%. I’ve been flirting with the 60% mark up & down for seemingly the last month or so but continue to build on unit profit for the season now at +20.2 units.
Before I begin revealing my Week 18 plays, I will caution you that motivation is usually key in season finale games, and it isn’t always as simple as taking the team that needs to win. Oftentimes, losing teams are motivated by taking positive momentum into the offseason. That said, I’m trusting that another round of pouring through this week’s VSiN NFL Analytics Report will keep me on my winning ways.
Saturday, January 6. 2024
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
One team has clinched the top seed in the postseason, and the other needs to win to maintain a shot at making the playoffs. Obviously, the latter should have the edge, right? Not necessarily, and for as much as I figured that the line in this game would drop significantly without any stakes in play for the Ravens, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a 16-point adjustment for starters resting. We are looking at that for this game, with the Ravens at +3.5.
Is head coach John Harbaugh still going to field a team on Saturday? Of course. Will that team still hate the Steelers with a passion? Yes. I don’t expect them to roll over by any means. Let’s face it, this is still a Steelers team that has scored just 17.9 PPG. They have also scored 17 points or fewer in six of their last nine trips to Baltimore.
The Ravens have been a tremendous underdog, going 24-7 ATS in the last 31 tries, and they will be backed by the motivation of revenge and an accompanying system: Teams that lost the prior game to an opponent but now have a record 20% or better outright have gone 41-14 SU and 35-20 ATS (63.6%) in the rematch contest. I still think this one will be tight.
Let’s go Baltimore at anything +3 or higher
Houston at Indianapolis
For as much as I’ve loved what’s happened in Houston this season, I question whether or not being favored in an essential play-in postseason game on the road may be applying too much pressure to a very young team. Let’s be honest, the Texans are a similar level team to the Colts, so why the road chalk line?
What’s even more concerning is that the public bettors at DraftKings seem to be taking the bait, with 82% of handle and 71% of bets on head coach DeMeco Ryans’ team as of this submission.