NFL Week 16 Best Bets
Coming off a huge Week 15 in the NFL, I bring you another week of my Best Bets. The Jaguars' loss at home to Baltimore this past Sunday night was the only blemish on my Week 15 slate, as I was able to complete the weekend with a 6-1-1 ATS record, my best of the season.
Hopefully, you were able to catch this column last week, or alternatively, my back-to-back appearances on VSiN’s Countdown to Kickoff show with Brent Musburger, where I discussed my plays and the methodologies behind them. I am on every Sunday with Brent at 8:30 a.m. PT. Of course, the foundation for all of my Best Bets comes from the weekly NFL Analytics Reports that we have been publishing. For the season, my record is now up to 63-40-1 ATS, good for 61.2% ATS, and at a season-high 23 games over-.500. I have a season-high 11 plays for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday on this week’s list after digging deep once again into this week’s report. Take a look.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
If any of you recall some of my analysis from the 2022 NFL season, I was very high on regularly following the games in which Cincinnati was playing in rematch games. Under head coach Zac Taylor, the Bengals have been one of, if not THE best team in the league in this regard.
In fact, in terms of trends, Cincinnati is 13-12 SU and 18-6-1 ATS L25 rematch opportunities and has won nine of the last 11 road rematches ATS. Here they get a rematch in a big game against struggling Pittsburgh, who moves on to QB #3 in Mason Rudolph as the offense can’t seem to get anything going.
The same cannot be said for Cincy behind QB Jake Browning, who has led his team to 31.7 PPG over the last three since his initial struggles against the Steelers a month ago. The difference between the execution levels of these teams is why Taylor’s team is favored. That is also a key because favorites are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine of the CIN-PIT series in Pittsburgh. In a key game with playoff implications, one team is playing like it belongs, and the other is not.
Let’s lay the 3 points with Cincinnati (+/-0.5)
Buffalo at LA Chargers
Clearly, Buffalo has flipped the switch since falling to 6-6 a few weeks ago, as a sense of urgency has kicked in. Back-to-back wins over Kansas City and Dallas have injected them back into the playoff picture. Every game figures to be important the rest of the way.
Fortunately, while head coach Sean McDermott’s team is finally playing the type of football it is capable of, it gets a game with the team perhaps playing worse than anyone, the Chargers. They have lost five of their last six games and have been outscored 87-28 over the last two weeks. There is a reason that Buffalo is a double-digit road favorite in this one, and not only because LA enjoys literally no home-field edge. Looking back at the head-to-head series between these teams of late, favorites are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine.
When I mentioned that Buffalo is finally playing well, a lot of it is because the running game has come alive, and not everything is on QB Josh Allen. In fact, in their last five games, the Bills are averaging 175.8 RYPG. Based on this and from a tweet I read from SportsbookBreakers on Friday, Buffalo is 15-0 ATS since Sept. 2018 with more than three days rest coming off a regular season game where they ran for at least 155 yards. One team is totally clicking, one is not. No sense in fighting it.
Let’s lay the 12-points with Buffalo (+/-1)
Indianapolis at Atlanta
The Falcons have played in 10 straight games that have been decided by single-digit margins. They are only 4-6 in those games but clearly have gotten plenty of experience in playing in tight games. They come off a game in which they struggled in nasty conditions at Carolina, losing 9-7.