NFL Week 15 Best Bets
The Titans upset at Miami this past Monday night saved a .500 record (3-3-1 ATS) for me in Week 14 of the NFL slate. However, with some moneyline action on both the Broncos and the Jets as underdogs, I was able to secure a personal profit. Hopefully, you did as well. My season-long record on these best bets is now 57-39-1 ATS, and back under 60% at 59.4%. We get our first Saturday games of the season this week, and I have plays for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday on this week’s list after digging deep once again into this week’s VSiN NFL Analytics Report. Take a look.
Minnesota at Cincinnati
As anemic of an effort as it was, the Vikings still managed to get the win at Las Vegas last Sunday despite only scoring a field goal. While bettors had to be horribly disappointed by one missed field goal and a decision not to kick another one, the win was all that mattered for head coach Kevin O’Connell’s team. Since the win, it seems that bettors and oddsmakers have turned against them entirely.
The same can’t be said for the Bengals, quite the opposite, in fact, after back-to-back impressive outings by backup QB Jake Browning in wins. Now, we saw it with Minnesota earlier when Josh Dobbs took over for Kirk Cousins. Two games of film on Dobbs were enough to snuff out a solid start. Will it be the same with Browning? We’ll see, but after two weeks of little respect from oddsmakers, it seems to have turned quickly as the Bengals are all the rage, favored by 3 here and getting the attention of 79% of bet volume at DraftKings. That can’t be a good sign. As I say, every week is new unto its own in the NFL.
Take a look at the system that says we should expect a better outing from Minnesota here: NFL teams that have won a game despite scoring less than 12 points in the victory have carried the momentum through the next game with a 17-10 SU and 18-9 ATS (66.7%) record. I’m not totally sold on Browning yet, but this will be a big one to prove whether or not he can lead a late-season playoff push. I’ll bet against it.