NFL Week 13 Best Bets
The Thanksgiving Weekend set me back a bit with my NFL best bets as I went just 3-5 to drop my season record to games with a 49-33-1 ATS, good for 59.8% on the season. I would take that record any given season, but it is disappointing when you have been over the 62% mark for the entirety of the last six weeks and then fall below. Time to get it back hopefully.
I knew I was in some trouble last week in watching the three teams I bet in the early Sunday games score 27 points combined. There are just some awful offenses with awful quarterback play out there right now, and I am going to do my best to avoid them going forward unless some really good info pops up. After going through another edition of the NFL Analytics Report, I have come up with eight more plays for Week 13, including one total.
LA Chargers at New England
I mentioned just above that I wouldn’t be backing poor offenses any longer unless there was some significant system or numerical data backing them. Well, in the case of the Chargers-Patriots game, I see enough to go back to the well with head coach Bill Belichick’s team on Sunday. First off, this is a very tough travel situation for Los Angeles, playing a 1 p.m. game cross-country in the Eastern time zone.
It’s not like the Chargers have demonstrated a grit and vigor that would suggest they’ll play better than they have been. They were dominated by Baltimore and haven’t been sharp at all during their three-game losing skid. NFL teams that have lost at least their last thre games outright have gone 48-32 SU but 29-48-3 ATS (37.7%) when favored by three points or more since 2013.
Also, the Patriots have had their way with the Chargers lately, winning the last seven head-to-head games ATS, with the latter scoring just 17.1 PPG on average. I lost with this same angle last week, but 18-3 is too hard to resist as New England comes off its 10-7 loss to the Giants: NFL teams that lose while allowing fewer than 12 points have also fared well in their follow-up game, going 15-6 SU and 18-3 ATS (85.7%) since 2015. The difference this week is they are catching points, not laying.